- Price
- $130.06
- Fair value
- $169.00
- Discount
- 23.0%
- Uncertainty
- Low
- LSEG rating
- 2.65
- Moat
- Wide
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-08
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- PepsiCo
- Sector
- Packaged foods & beverages
- About
- PepsiCo sells snacks and beverages around the world. Its two biggest segments are PepsiCo Foods North America (PFNA), which sells Frito-Lay chips like Lay's, Doritos, Tostitos, and Cheetos plus Quaker oatmeal and cereal, and PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA), which sells Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, and other drinks. Unlike Coca-Cola, PepsiCo owns most of its North American bottling and manufacturing rather than franchising it out to independent bottlers. Outside North America, PepsiCo reports Latin America Foods, Europe/Middle East/Africa, other international foods, and an International Beverages Franchise segment. About 56% of revenue comes from the US, with the rest from international markets. PepsiCo has raised its dividend for 54 straight years as of 2026, which puts it in the small group of Dividend King stocks. It has recently bought smaller, faster-growing brands to diversify beyond its core chips and cola, including Siete Foods (Mexican-American snacks, closed January 2025) and poppi (prebiotic soda, closed May 2025).
- Thesis
- At $130.06, PepsiCo trades about 23% below its $169 fair value estimate. The market's main worry is North America, which generates most of PepsiCo's profit and has been inconsistent: after price cuts of up to 15% on Lay's, Doritos, Tostitos, and Cheetos helped snack volumes turn positive in Q1 2026, both North America beverages and foods softened again in Q2 2026, with beverage volume down 4% and CEO Ramon Laguarta blaming a weaker consumer hit by high gas prices and inflation. That weakness is also why activist investor Elliott Management built a roughly $4 billion stake in September 2025 and pushed PepsiCo to refranchise its company-owned bottling network and review its food portfolio. PepsiCo settled with Elliott in December 2025, keeping its bottling network but committing to record productivity savings, a roughly 20% cut to its US product lineup, and further snack price reductions, with a goal of expanding core operating margin by at least 100 basis points over three years. If those cost cuts and the North America pricing reset restore steady volume and margin growth the way they briefly did in Q1 2026, the discount can close. The honest counter-case: Q2 2026 already showed the North America recovery stalling, management's own commentary points to a genuinely softer US consumer rather than just self-inflicted pricing mistakes, and Elliott's pressure alone does not guarantee the turnaround succeeds — if North America stays weak through the rest of 2026, the fair value gap may reflect real risk rather than a temporary mispricing.
- Risks
- North America generates most of PepsiCo's profit and has swung between weak and improving within the same year. Q1 2026 price cuts briefly restored snack volume growth, but Q2 2026 showed both beverage and food demand softening again, with management citing a weaker US consumer hurt by high gas prices and inflation. Continued softness would fall short of the guidance the fair value estimate assumes.
The turnaround plan PepsiCo agreed to with Elliott Management in December 2025 — record productivity savings, cutting about 20% of its US product lineup, and further snack price cuts — has not yet shown up as a clear improvement in results. If it fails to lift North America volume and margins, the pressure from Elliott, PepsiCo's largest active investor outside index funds, could resume.
GLP-1 weight-loss drugs reduce how much people snack. Industry estimates point to a mid-single-digit percentage hit to salty, sweet, and confectionery snack sales over time as more people use these drugs, directly affecting PepsiCo's largest and most profitable category.
PepsiCo owns most of its North America bottling and manufacturing rather than franchising it out, unlike Coca-Cola. This gives it more control but more fixed costs and capital tied up in plants and trucks, which is exactly the structure Elliott wants PepsiCo to change and which limits how quickly PepsiCo can shed underperforming operations.
Tariffs on aluminum and steel used in cans, and on inputs like beverage concentrate made outside the US, raise PepsiCo's costs. Further tariff increases would pressure margins at the same time North America volumes are already inconsistent.
US regulators, under the FDA's push to phase out synthetic dyes by the end of 2026, are pressing PepsiCo to reformulate iconic products like Doritos and Mountain Dew with natural colors. Reformulation could raise costs or change taste and appearance during the transition, risking a consumer reaction.
PepsiCo pays a large, growing dividend (54 straight annual increases) and just authorized a new $10 billion buyback. This heavy commitment to cash returns leaves less room to absorb a prolonged North America downturn without slowing buybacks or leaning more on debt.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-17: PepsiCo's board elected Joaquin Duato, Chairman and CEO of Johnson & Johnson, as an independent director effective December 1, 2026.
2026-07-09: PepsiCo reported Q2 2026 results: net revenue of $24.18 billion, up 6.4%, with organic revenue up 2.4%. Adjusted EPS was $2.20, a cent below estimates. Core operating margin contracted 40 basis points to 16.8%. North America beverage volume fell 4% and North America foods volume was flat; management said North America was softer than it had anticipated.
2026-04-16: PepsiCo reported Q1 2026 results: net revenue of $19.4 billion, up 8.5%, with organic revenue up 2.6% and EPS of $1.61, ahead of estimates. PepsiCo Foods North America returned to volume growth for the first time in over two years after February 2026 price cuts of up to 15% on Lay's, Doritos, Tostitos, and Cheetos.
2026-02-03: PepsiCo reported Q4 and full-year 2025 results and gave 2026 guidance of 2-4% organic revenue growth and 4-6% core constant-currency EPS growth. The board raised the annualized dividend 4% to $5.92 per share, its 54th straight annual increase, and authorized a new $10 billion share buyback program running through February 2030.
2025-12-08: PepsiCo reached an agreement with activist investor Elliott Management. It committed to a review of its supply chain, record 2026 productivity savings, cutting its US product lineup by about 20%, and further price reductions on snacks, but said a full refranchising of its North America beverage bottling operation was not under consideration.
2025-09-02: Elliott Investment Management disclosed a roughly $4 billion stake in PepsiCo, calling the company a 'dramatic underperformer' and pushing it to refranchise its company-owned North America bottling network and review underperforming food assets.
2025-05-19: PepsiCo completed its acquisition of poppi, a prebiotic soda brand, for $1.95 billion in cash plus contingent consideration tied to performance milestones.