- Price
- $71.49
- Fair value
- $75.00
- Discount
- 4.7%
- Uncertainty
- Low
- LSEG rating
- 2.52
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-02
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Public Service Enterprise Group
- Sector
- Electric & gas utility
- About
- Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) is a utility holding company based in Newark, New Jersey. Its main business is Public Service Electric and Gas (PSE&G), which delivers electricity to 2.4 million customers and natural gas to 1.9 million customers in an area of about 2,600 square miles across New Jersey. PSE&G also owns transmission lines in the PJM grid. State and federal regulators set its rates, so its earnings grow mostly with its rate base, which was about $36 billion at the end of 2025. PSEG Power owns 3,758 megawatts of nuclear capacity: the Salem and Hope Creek plants in New Jersey and a share of the Peach Bottom plants in Pennsylvania. PSEG Power sells this power at market prices, and a federal production tax credit supports its revenue when prices are low through 2032.
- Thesis
- The market prices PSEG as a utility with political risk in New Jersey. Electricity bills in the state rose sharply in June 2025 after high PJM capacity prices. In January 2026, the new governor ordered the Board of Public Utilities (BPU) to limit rate increases and to study changes to the utility business model. In July 2026, the BPU published a consultant study of ratemaking options, and a quantitative analysis of these options is the next step. A June 2026 state law also makes membership in a regional transmission organization mandatory from January 1, 2027. This can remove the 50 basis point return adder of PSE&G and lower its net income by about $40 million a year. The nuclear business adds a second uncertainty, because its earnings move with power prices above the tax credit floor. For the gap to close, PSEG must earn 2026 operating EPS within its $4.28 to $4.40 guidance and keep its outlook of 6% to 8% growth a year through 2030. The BPU review must not lead to a lower allowed return. A multi-year contract for nuclear output, which management is working on, would also make earnings more certain. PSEG reports Q3 2026 results on November 2, 2026, which is the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a state policy change that cuts the return on utility investment.
- Risks
- New Jersey is under strong political pressure to lower power bills. The BPU review of the utility business model, which started with an executive order in January 2026, can lead to a lower allowed return or slower recovery of investment.
A June 2026 law makes membership in a regional transmission organization mandatory from January 1, 2027. If PSE&G loses its 50 basis point return adder, its net income falls by about $40 million a year.
The earnings of PSEG Power move with power prices, nuclear output and the rules for the production tax credit. An outage at a nuclear plant or a change in the tax credit rules can lower earnings.
In March 2026, FERC ordered PJM to recalculate how it assigns some transmission costs and to resettle bills back to 2015. The proceedings continue, and the result can change the costs of PSE&G customers.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $192M
Debt: $24.5B
Net debt: $24.3B
Interest cover: 2.8×
Undrawn credit line: $3.2B, to March 2031
Debt due within 12 months: $1.8B
PSEG funds PSE&G with first mortgage bonds and funds the parent and PSEG Power with senior notes and commercial paper. At June 30, 2026, total debt was $24.54 billion: long-term debt of $23.59 billion, which includes $850 million due within one year, and commercial paper and loans of $950 million. Cash was only $192 million, which is normal for a utility that uses commercial paper. Credit facilities of $3.8 billion had $3.2 billion available, and the main $3.75 billion of them run to March 2031. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first half of 2026. If PSEG Power lost its investment grade rating, it would have to post about $705 million of additional collateral. PSEG paid a dividend of $0.67 per share each quarter in 2026, up from $0.63.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 2, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: 2026 guidance. Pending. Watch: Operating EPS on track for the $4.28 to $4.40 guidance and the 6% to 8% growth outlook kept pass; a cut to either fails.
Jan 2027 (estimate): Mandatory RTO membership: transmission return adder. Pending. Watch: PSE&G keeps its 50 basis point adder, or the loss stays near $40 million a year, passes; a larger cut to the transmission return fails.
2027 (estimate): BPU review of the utility business model. Pending. Watch: A result that keeps the current return on equity and rate recovery passes; a lower allowed return or new limits on rate recovery fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-13: PSEG said that it will report Q3 2026 results on November 2, 2026. On the same call, management will discuss its guidance, capital investments and regulatory matters.
2026-08-04: PSEG reported Q2 2026 results. Net income was $334 million, or $0.67 per share, down from $1.17 a year earlier, mainly because of losses on trust investments and other items. Non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.86 per share, up from $0.77. PSEG kept its 2026 guidance of $4.28 to $4.40 per share and its 6% to 8% growth outlook through 2030. It said it can fund its $24 billion to $28 billion five-year capital plan without new shares or asset sales.
2026-08-04: In its Q2 2026 report, PSEG described new state actions. In July 2026, the BPU published a consultant study of options to change how electric distribution utilities earn money. In the same month, the governor signed the Data Center Fair Share Act, which makes the BPU set a separate rate class for large data centers so that they pay the full cost of the grid upgrades that they need.
2026-07-02: PSE&G reached a summer peak load of 10,446 megawatts, its highest in 14 years. Storms in early July cut power to about 380,000 customers, and PSE&G restored nearly all of them within 24 hours.
2026-06-03: PSEG sold $500 million of long-term debt. In May 2026, a BPU order also made PSEG Power refund about $207 million to the New Jersey utilities for zero emission certificates of 2024 that the production tax credit had offset.