- Price
- $14.66
- Fair value
- $26.00
- Discount
- 43.6%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 1.92
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-03
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- PayPay
- Sector
- Digital payments & financial services
- About
- PayPay runs the largest QR-code payment app in Japan. In June 2026, it had 74.6 million registered users and 41.7 million users who paid at least once a month. It reports two segments. The Payment segment includes the PayPay app and PayPay Card, and it earns fees from merchants, credit card fees, and interest on revolving and installment balances. The Financial Service segment includes PayPay Bank and PayPay Securities, and it earns interest on loans and securities and fees from trading. PayPay gives points to users to make them pay more often and use its other services. SoftBank Corp. and other SoftBank Group companies control PayPay. Its American depositary shares (ADSs) started to trade on the Nasdaq on March 12, 2026, and it reports under IFRS in yen.
- Thesis
- The market prices PayPay as a new listing with risks that it does not yet trust. The ADSs started to trade only in March 2026, so PayPay has a short record as a listed company. SoftBank Group companies control PayPay, so outside owners have little say, and related-party deals and promotions with SoftBank companies are a large part of the business. In June 2026, PayPay also cut its point rewards, and investors fear that users can move to other payment apps. Its new plans, a ¥132 billion purchase of a life insurer and a ¥100 billion stake in Seven & i, add risk that is new to the business. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Monthly transacting users and GMV must keep growing at double-digit rates after the cuts to point rewards. PayPay must meet its raised guidance for the year to March 2027, with total revenue of ¥465 billion to ¥473 billion and adjusted EBITDA of ¥149 billion to ¥155 billion. Loan losses in the card and bank businesses must stay under control as balances grow. The Q2 report on November 3, 2026, gives the first test, the Q3 report in February 2027 gives the second, and the T&D Financial Life purchase is due to close on October 1, 2027. If growth holds, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters, but SoftBank's control can keep a part of it.
- Risks
- SoftBank Group companies control PayPay, and PayPay depends on them for promotions, services, licenses and part of its borrowings. Their interests can differ from those of outside owners, and a large sale of shares by them can push the price down.
Point rewards bring users to the app. PayPay cut them in June 2026, and other Japanese payment apps can offer more points to win users and merchants.
The card and bank loans grow fast, and the provision for loan losses rose to ¥8.3 billion in Q1 from ¥5.2 billion a year earlier. A weaker Japanese economy can raise loan losses further.
The life insurer purchase and the Seven & i stake are large new investments. They need regulatory approvals and integration work, and they add exposure to interest rates and stock prices.
PayPay earns in yen, but its ADSs trade in US dollars. A weaker yen lowers the dollar value of its results.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: ¥491.1B
Debt: ¥757.1B
Net debt: ¥266.0B
PayPay's balance sheet is mostly that of its bank and card businesses. At June 30, 2026, total assets were ¥5.49 trillion. Bank deposits of ¥3.11 trillion fund most of the ¥2.63 trillion of loans and advances to customers and the ¥1.79 trillion of securities. Cash was ¥491.1 billion, and part of it serves the daily settlement of payments. Borrowings were ¥757.1 billion. The Payment segment had ¥302.9 billion of loans and ¥87.0 billion of commercial paper, and some of these loans come from SoftBank Group companies. The bank had ¥367.2 billion of repurchase agreements and borrowings from the Bank of Japan. Equity was ¥449.9 billion. PayPay plans to pay about ¥132 billion in cash for T&D Financial Life when the deal closes, from cash on hand, and it agreed to pay about ¥100 billion for Seven & i shares in August 2026. The ADS listing in March 2026 raised new capital.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 3, 2026: Q2 results: users and GMV after the point changes. Pending. Watch: Total revenue within the ¥114 billion to ¥116 billion guidance and monthly transacting users above a year earlier pass; a fall in users or revenue below the guidance fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Q3 results: full-year guidance. Pending. Watch: Results that keep PayPay on track for its raised full-year guidance pass; a cut to the guidance or a large rise in loan losses fails.
Oct 1, 2027 (estimate): T&D Financial Life purchase closing. Pending. Watch: Closing with the regulatory approvals and at about the planned price passes; a delay or a higher price fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-07-31: PayPay agreed to a business and capital alliance with Seven & i Holdings, SoftBank Corp. and LY Corporation. PayPay will buy 48.3 million Seven & i shares, 2.13% of the company, for about ¥100 billion, and SoftBank will buy the same number. The partners plan to link the 7iD into PayPay's ID platform and bring PayPay Points to Seven-Eleven stores.
2026-07-30: PayPay reported Q1 results for the year to March 2027. Total revenue rose 27% to ¥109.8 billion, and profit rose 83% to ¥19.7 billion. Adjusted EBITDA rose 59% to ¥37.4 billion, a 34% margin. GMV in the Payment segment rose 23% to ¥5.39 trillion, and monthly transacting users rose 10% to 41.7 million. PayPay raised its full-year guidance to total revenue of ¥465 billion to ¥473 billion and adjusted EBITDA of ¥149 billion to ¥155 billion.
2026-06-04: PayPay agreed to buy 70.2% of T&D Financial Life Insurance from T&D Holdings for about ¥132 billion in cash. The deal is due to close on October 1, 2027, after regulatory approvals.
2026-06-02: PayPay changed its point rewards. Users must now verify their identity to earn points, payments made with points no longer earn points, and a usage benefit replaced the extra points for PayPay Card Gold. PayPay said that the effect on users and GMV was within its expectations and that the change improved profit by ¥1 billion in June.
2026-05-06: PayPay reported results for the year to March 2026. Profit rose 201% to ¥117.8 billion, total revenue grew 27%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 29%. It first guided total revenue of ¥454 billion to ¥462 billion for the year to March 2027.