OUSTLidar & machine perception
Ouster
Updated
- Price
- $39.90
- Fair value
- fair value $26.00 (AI estimate)
- Discount
- -53.5% above fair value
- LSEG rating
- LSEG 2.00 — lower is better (1–5)
- Next earnings
- Earnings Nov 3 · · estimated
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In short
- Thesis
- The market pays for fast growth in lidar for robots and Physical AI, so the price holds only if Ouster keeps its growth, keeps its gross margin and becomes profitable without more large share sales.
- Gap
- Slow. The premium depends on several years of fast growth and a first profit, so each quarterly report adds evidence slowly through 2027 and later.
- Next test
- (estimate): Q3 2026 results: revenue and gross margin
About
Ouster is a US company that makes sensors and software that let machines see the physical world. Its main product is digital lidar. A lidar sensor sends laser light and measures the time that the light takes to come back, so it makes a 3D image of the area around it. Ouster designs the chips in its sensors, and contract manufacturers such as Benchmark and Fabrinet build them.
In February 2026, Ouster bought Stereolabs, a French company that makes ZED stereo cameras, AI compute units and perception software. Ouster sells to customers in four markets: industrial (such as warehouse automation and heavy machines), robotics, automotive (such as robotaxis) and smart infrastructure (such as traffic management with Ouster BlueCity). Ouster merged with Velodyne Lidar in February 2023, and it also earns royalties from patent licences. Its headquarters are in San Francisco, and its shares trade on the Nasdaq Global Select Market.
Thesis
The market prices Ouster above the AI estimate, because it pays for fast growth in sensors for robots, automation and other Physical AI uses. Product revenue grew 51% in Q2 2026, the 14th quarter in a row of product revenue growth. The new Rev8 lidar family and the Stereolabs cameras add new products, and the market expects many customers to move from tests to volume production. The AI estimate is lower because Ouster still loses money.
The GAAP net loss was $35.6 million in the first half of 2026. Many competitors sell lidar, so prices fall, and one customer gave 32% of revenue in Q2 2026. Ouster also raised about $290 million from new shares from May to July 2026. For the price to hold, revenue must grow near the top of the long-term management range of 30% to 50% each year, without the one-time royalties.
The gross margin must stay near 50% while Rev8 volumes increase, and adjusted EBITDA must become positive. Ouster must also pay for its growth with the cash that it has now, without more large share sales. The evidence arrives with the Q3 2026 results in about early November 2026, where revenue must be inside the guidance of $54.5 million to $57.5 million, and with the Q4 2026 results and the 2027 outlook in about March 2027. If growth and margins hold through 2027, the business can grow into the price over several years.
If growth slows or a large customer cuts its orders, the price can fall toward the AI estimate.
Valuation
The fair value, the moat and the uncertainty on this page for Ouster are an AI estimate from October 11, 2026. They are not an analyst's values. The analysts that Picks uses do not rate Ouster. Their only ratings for Ouster come from a statistical model. An AI research agent calculated the estimate from Ouster's filings. The method projects revenue to 2030, applies an operating margin and a multiple of after-tax operating profit at the end of 2030, and discounts that value to today, in three cases. The start is 2026 revenue of about $219 million. This is Q1 2026 revenue of $48.6 million and Q2 2026 revenue of $54.6 million from the 10-Q of August 6, 2026, the midpoint of the Q3 2026 guidance of $54.5 million to $57.5 million from the release of August 6, 2026, and $60 million for Q4 2026, which is an assumption. The base case assumes revenue growth of 35%, 30%, 25% and 20% from 2027 to 2030, to about $577 million, an operating margin of 15% in 2030 and 30 times after-tax operating profit. The low case assumes 20% growth each year, to about $455 million, a margin of 8% and 20 times. The high case assumes growth of 45%, 40%, 35% and 30%, to about $781 million, a margin of 20% and 35 times. All cases use a tax rate of 10%, because Ouster has large tax losses, and a discount rate of 12% for 4.25 years. The growth rates, the margins, the multiples, the tax rate, the discount rate and the weights of 25%, 50% and 25% are assumptions. For comparison, the long-term framework of March 2, 2026 is revenue growth of 30% to 50% each year without royalties. The estimate adds cash, restricted cash and short-term investments of $262.5 million at June 30, 2026, and the net proceeds of $191.9 million from the share sale of July 6, 2026. Ouster had no debt at June 30, 2026. The estimate takes away cash use before the first profit of $40 million in the base case, $60 million in the low case and $25 million in the high case. These amounts are assumptions. The share count is 72,112,333 shares at July 31, 2026 plus 4,792,322 unvested restricted stock units at June 30, 2026, or about 76.9 million shares. The estimate does not count the Amazon warrant for 3,290,094 shares at an exercise price of $50.30. The base case gives about $24.20 per share, the low case about $10.40 and the high case about $45.10. The weighted value is about $26.00 per share. The cases are far apart, and Ouster does not make a profit yet, so the uncertainty is Very High. The moat rating is None. Ouster has many patents, and in September 2025 a tribunal decided that Hesai pays royalties under the Velodyne licence. But in March 2025 the Patent Trial and Appeal Board found the challenged claims of three of four reviewed Ouster patents unpatentable. Customers design the sensors into their machines over six months to several years, and this gives some switching costs. But the 10-Q of August 6, 2026 says that many competitors push average selling prices down. Ouster has an accumulated deficit of $1.0 billion and has no full year of GAAP profit. The estimate does not find clear evidence of returns above the cost of capital that last 10 years or more.
Checkpoints
- Nov 3, 2026 · est.PendingQ3 2026 results: revenue and gross marginRevenue inside or above the guidance of $54.5 million to $57.5 million with a GAAP gross margin near 50% passes; revenue below guidance or a large drop in gross margin fails.
- Mar 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and 2027 outlookProduct revenue growth of 30% or more in 2026 and an outlook that keeps the 30% to 50% growth framework passes; lower growth or a new large share sale fails.
- 2027 · est.PendingFirst quarters of positive adjusted EBITDAPositive adjusted EBITDA in quarters of 2027 without one-time royalties passes; adjusted EBITDA losses through 2027 fail.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $261M
- Debt
- $0.0M
- Net cash
- $261M
Cash against debt
debt covered by cash
Ouster had no debt at June 30, 2026, and it raised more cash after that date. On July 6, 2026, it sold 3,621,876 new shares at $55.22 each and received net proceeds of about $191.9 million, so cash and investments after the sale were about $454 million. Cash is cash and cash equivalents of $91.8 million plus short-term investments of $169.3 million; with restricted cash, the total was $262.5 million. Operating lease liabilities were $16.4 million, total liabilities were $103.5 million and stockholders' equity was $371.3 million. In the first half of 2026, operating activities used $20.0 million of cash, and capital spending was $5.2 million. Ouster paid $32.4 million in cash and 1,847,677 shares for Stereolabs on February 4, 2026. In Q2 2026, it sold 3,649,000 shares under an at-the-market program for net proceeds of $98.0 million, and that program has no money left. Non-cancelable purchase commitments were $46.3 million at June 30, 2026. The 10-Q says that the cash is sufficient for at least twelve months, and that losses and negative operating cash flow continue for the foreseeable future. The filings do not give a credit rating. The cash covers the current losses for many years, but faster growth, acquisitions or a slower path to profit can need more share sales.
Risks
- Ouster does not make a profit. Its accumulated deficit was $1.0 billion at June 30, 2026, and the 10-Q says that it expects losses and negative operating cash flow for the foreseeable future.
- Many companies sell lidar, including large makers in China such as Hesai. The 10-Q says that competition pushes average selling prices down, and that large multi-year contracts can lower prices more.
- One customer gave 32% of revenue in Q2 2026 and 31% in the first half of 2026. If this customer cuts its orders, revenue can fall.
- Ouster pays for its growth with new shares. The shares outstanding rose from 60.9 million at December 31, 2025 to 72.1 million at July 31, 2026, and 4.8 million restricted stock units were not vested at June 30, 2026.
- Some parts come from one supplier only, and contract manufacturers build the sensors. Tariffs on goods from Thailand, Canada, Taiwan or China can increase costs.
- Patents give less protection than Ouster says. In March 2025, the Patent Trial and Appeal Board found the challenged claims of three of four reviewed Ouster patents unpatentable, and one appeal continues.
- Ouster must integrate Stereolabs, a company in France. The purchase added $38.5 million of goodwill and $32.9 million of intangible assets, which can lose value.
Recent events
- September 9, 2026Ouster and Flyability said that they will show their lidar work at INTERGEO 2026 in Munich from September 15 to 17. Flyability uses the Ouster OS0 lidar in its Elios 3 inspection drone, and it tests Rev8 now.
- August 6, 2026Ouster reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 56% to $54.6 million, and product revenue rose 51% to $52.8 million. Ouster shipped more than 17,000 lidar sensors and cameras, and lidar was about 53% of the units. The GAAP gross margin was 49%, the GAAP net loss was $18.1 million and the adjusted EBITDA loss was $4.5 million. Ouster guided Q3 2026 revenue to $54.5 million to $57.5 million.
- July 6, 2026Ouster closed a sale of 3,621,876 new shares at $55.22 each to Northland Securities. The net proceeds were about $191.9 million.
Show 10 older eventsHide older events
- June 30, 2026Ouster said that its Rev8 OS lidar sensors and Ouster BlueCity comply with the Build America, Buy America rules. This lets US transportation projects with federal money use them.
- June 17, 2026Ouster signed a strategic agreement with AIM Intelligent Machines, which adds Ouster lidar to heavy earthmoving machines for mining, construction and defense sites.
- June 17, 2026The stockholders approved an increase of the authorized common shares from 100 million to 200 million.
- June 15, 2026Ouster and Benchmark expanded their manufacturing partnership for Rev8. The release gives a manufacturing capacity of more than 100,000 units per year and a planned production life of 10 years for Rev8.
- May 8, 2026Ouster started a new at-the-market share program of up to $100 million. In Q2 2026, it sold 3,649,000 shares at an average of $27.40 and completed the program, for net proceeds of $98.0 million.
- May 5, 2026Ouster reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue rose 49% to $48.6 million, and product revenue rose 55%. The GAAP gross margin was 43%, and the adjusted EBITDA loss was about $7 million.
- May 4, 2026Ouster launched the Rev8 OS lidar family with its new L4 chips. Rev8 adds native color to the lidar image and gives up to two times the range and resolution of the previous generation.
- March 2, 2026Ouster reported 2025 results. Revenue rose 52% to $169 million, with about $23 million of royalties that were mainly one-time. Product revenue rose 32% to $147 million. Management kept its long-term framework of 30% to 50% revenue growth each year without royalties and a GAAP gross margin of 35% to 40%.
- February 4, 2026Ouster closed the purchase of Stereolabs for $32.4 million in cash and 1,847,677 new shares. Of these shares, 660,005 go to Stereolabs employees over four years if they stay with the company. Stereolabs has shipped more than 90,000 ZED cameras to more than 10,000 customers.
- September 15, 2025An arbitration tribunal decided that Ouster is bound by the 2020 cross-licence settlement between Velodyne and Hesai, under which Hesai pays royalties. Ouster paid about $6.4 million of fees in Q4 2025.
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