- Price
- $128.71
- Fair value
- $172.00
- Discount
- 25.2%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 2.28
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-29
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Oshkosh
- Sector
- Specialty vehicles & equipment
- About
- Oshkosh designs and builds special vehicles and equipment. It reports three segments: Access, Vocational and Transport. Access sells JLG and SkyTrak aerial work platforms and telehandlers, mainly to equipment rental companies. Vocational sells fire trucks under the Pierce brand, airport vehicles, refuse and recycling trucks under the McNeilus brand, and concrete mixers. Transport builds military trucks for the US Army and allies and the Next Generation Delivery Vehicle (NGDV) for the US Postal Service. Oshkosh makes money from the sale of vehicles, parts and service. Sales were $2.92 billion in Q2 2026, and its backlog was $14.75 billion on June 30, 2026.
- Thesis
- The market prices Oshkosh for lower profits that will be slow to recover. Its operating margin fell to 8.3% in Q2 2026 from 10.7% a year earlier. Tariffs raised material costs, Access sold a less profitable mix, and the new NGDV postal truck still earns a low margin. Fire truck plants also produce more slowly than planned, so in July 2026 Oshkosh cut its 2026 GAAP EPS outlook to about $10.50 from $10.90. Investors doubt that Oshkosh can turn its large backlog into profit. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Fire truck output must rise each quarter, as management expects with its new process changes. Access must turn its backlog of $1.96 billion, 64.7% higher than a year earlier, into sales with better price and cost. Transport margins must rise as NGDV output grows. Management also expects Q4 2026 to be stronger than Q3 and the momentum to carry into 2027. The Q3 report on October 29, 2026, is the first test, and the Q4 report and the 2027 outlook in early 2027 are the second. If margins recover as planned, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.
- Risks
- Fire truck production rises more slowly than planned because Oshkosh is changing its manufacturing process. Further delays can cut profits again and keep the large fire truck backlog from turning into sales.
Tariffs raise material costs. In Q2 2026, higher material costs, mainly from tariffs, cut the Access gross margin by 230 basis points, and price increases did not cover all of it.
Access sales depend on construction and on the spending of equipment rental companies. Data center and megaproject demand is strong now, but a slower construction market can reduce orders.
The NGDV and defense contracts have fixed prices. Cost increases or slower production can keep Transport margins low, as in Q2 2026 at 2.9% of sales.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $404M
Debt: $1.1B
Net debt: $701M
Interest cover: 5.4×
Undrawn credit line: $1.6B, to March 2031
Debt due within 12 months: $502M
Last debt due: 2030
Oshkosh has little debt for its size. At June 30, 2026, it had $403.6 million of cash. Debt was $1.1 billion: $300 million of 4.600% senior notes due May 2028, $300 million of 3.100% senior notes due March 2030, a $500 million term loan due March 2027 at 4.55%, and small other debt. The term loan is the debt due within 12 months. In March 2026, Oshkosh signed a new $1.60 billion revolving credit facility that ends in March 2031, and it had no borrowings under it on June 30, 2026. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first half of 2026. The covenants allow debt of up to 3.75 times EBITDA. Customer advances of $2.06 billion, mainly for fire trucks and defense vehicles, also fund part of the working capital. Oshkosh bought back $91.6 million of shares in Q2 2026.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results: fire truck output and margins. Pending. Watch: Higher fire truck deliveries than in Q2 and a 2026 outlook kept near adjusted EPS of $11.00 pass; another cut to the outlook fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A Q4 stronger than Q3, as management expects, and a 2027 outlook with higher margins pass; a weak Q4 or a 2027 outlook with lower EPS fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-15: Oshkosh said that it will report its Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026.
2026-10-05: Oshkosh Defense received a second order for the Royal Moroccan Armed Forces of 50 Heavy Equipment Transporter tractors and 50 heavy-duty trailers.
2026-07-28: Oshkosh reported Q2 2026 results. Sales rose 6.7% to $2.92 billion, but operating income fell 16.6% to $243.2 million. EPS was $2.92, and adjusted EPS was $2.87, down from $3.41. Access orders were $1.5 billion. Oshkosh lowered its 2026 outlook to GAAP EPS of about $10.50 and adjusted EPS of about $11.00, on sales of about $11.2 billion, because fire truck output will rise more slowly than planned.
2026-05-08: Oshkosh reported Q1 2026 results. Sales were flat at $2.32 billion, and adjusted EPS fell to $0.85 from $1.92. Fire truck deliveries were below plan. Oshkosh kept its 2026 outlook.