- Price
- $17.51
- Fair value
- $20.10
- Discount
- 12.9%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 2.00
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-02
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- NatWest Group
- Sector
- UK banking
- About
- NatWest Group is one of the largest banks in the United Kingdom, with more than 20 million customers. It has three customer businesses. Retail Banking gives mortgages, loans, current accounts and savings to individuals. Private Banking & Wealth Management serves wealthy clients, and it grew with the purchase of the wealth manager Evelyn Partners on June 30, 2026. Commercial & Institutional serves businesses, from start-ups to large companies, and it is a leader in UK infrastructure and project finance. The group is based in London. Its American Depositary Shares trade in New York.
- Thesis
- The market prices NatWest for its dependence on the UK economy and on UK interest rates. Much of its income comes from the margin on UK loans and deposits, so lower Bank of England rates and lower mortgage margins can reduce income. The purchase of Evelyn Partners on June 30, 2026 cut the CET1 ratio by about 1.4 percentage points to 13.2%, reduced tangible net asset value per share to 359p from 400p at March 31, 2026, and moved the next share buyback to the full-year 2026 results. For the gap to close, three things must be true. NatWest must reach its 2026 guidance: total income of about £17.9 billion excluding notable items, costs of about £8.5 billion and a return on tangible equity above 19%. Income from its structural hedge must rise by more than £1.5 billion in 2026 and more than £1.0 billion in 2027, as the bank expects. Evelyn Partners must add income and assets under management without large integration costs. The Q3 2026 results, estimated for about November 2, 2026, give the next test. The full-year 2026 results in February 2027 show the size of the next buyback. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weaker UK economy, which can raise bad loans and lower loan demand.
- Risks
- NatWest lends almost only in the UK. A recession, higher unemployment or a fall in house prices can increase bad loans. The loan impairment rate was 19 basis points in H1 2026, and the bank expects less than 25 basis points for 2026.
Lower Bank of England rates and strong competition for mortgages and deposits can reduce the net interest margin. Retail Banking had lower mortgage margins in H1 2026, which hedge income offset.
The Evelyn Partners purchase adds a large wealth business. If integration costs are higher, or clients and advisers leave, the expected income may not come.
UK banks face regulatory changes and conduct claims. Basel 3.1 rules will increase risk-weighted assets by about £10 billion on January 1, 2027, by the bank's estimate, which uses capital.
- Balance sheet
- NatWest funds itself mostly with customer deposits. At June 30, 2026, total assets were £745.4 billion, customer deposits were £448.6 billion and loans to customers were £435.9 billion. The loan to deposit ratio, without repos, was 90%. The average liquidity coverage ratio was 140%. Capital is the real limit for a bank. The CET1 ratio was 13.2% at June 30, 2026, down about 0.8 percentage points from the end of 2025, of which about 1.4 percentage points came from the Evelyn Partners purchase. Risk-weighted assets were £199.5 billion. Tangible net asset value per share was 359p. In October 2026, NatWest Group issued $1.0 billion of senior notes due 2032.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 2, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: income, impairments and capital. Pending. Watch: Income on track for about £17.9 billion in 2026, a loan impairment rate below 25 basis points and a CET1 ratio of 13% or more pass; lower guidance or higher impairments fail.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results: share buyback. Pending. Watch: A return on tangible equity above 19% for 2026 and a new share buyback pass; no buyback or a lower return fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-16: NatWest Group issued $1.0 billion of 5.908% senior callable fixed-to-fixed reset rate notes due 2032. It will use the money for its general banking business.
2026-07-31: NatWest reported H1 2026 results. Attributable profit was £3.0 billion, return on tangible equity was 19.7% and earnings per share rose 23.3% to 38.1p. Total income rose 11.0% to £8.86 billion. The cost:income ratio improved to 46.0%. The CET1 ratio fell to 13.2% after the Evelyn Partners purchase. NatWest raised its 2026 guidance, declared an interim dividend of 12.0p, and said that it will consider share buybacks from its full-year 2026 results.
2026-06-30: NatWest completed the purchase of Evelyn Partners, which added £71.7 billion of assets under management and administration. In the same quarter, it completed the sale of Cushon.