- Price
- $42.68
- Fair value
- $43.00
- Discount
- 0.7%
- Uncertainty
- Low
- LSEG rating
- 1.94
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-05
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- NiSource
- Sector
- Gas & electric utilities
- About
- NiSource is a fully regulated utility holding company. It serves about 3.3 million natural gas customers and 500,000 electric customers in six states under the Columbia Gas and NIPSCO brands. Columbia Gas distributes gas in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky and Maryland. NIPSCO serves gas and electric customers in northern Indiana. NiSource earns returns on the money it invests in pipes, wires and power plants, as state regulators allow. Through NIPSCO Generation (GenCo), a new unit in which Blackstone Infrastructure holds a minority interest, NiSource builds power plants to serve large data center customers. NIPSCO has special contracts with Amazon Data Services and Alphabet to supply power to their data centers.
- Thesis
- The market prices NiSource for the cost of a large new investment program and the risk of its data center strategy. The 2026 to 2030 capital plan is $28.6 billion, which includes $7.6 billion of investments for data centers. Interest expense rose to $391 million in the first half of 2026 from $272 million a year earlier, and debt rose to $17.4 billion at June 30, 2026. Q2 2026 adjusted EPS fell to $0.16 from $0.22 because of higher depreciation and interest expense. NiSource must also find customers for its new generation beyond Amazon and Alphabet. For the gap to close, three things must be true. NiSource must reach its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07 and keep its target of 9% to 10% annual growth from 2026 to 2033. GenCo must build the plants for Amazon and Alphabet on time and on budget, and the contracts must protect existing customers from the costs, as the company says they do. NiSource must keep its investment grade credit ratings while it funds the plan. The Q3 2026 report, estimated for about November 5, 2026, gives the next test. The 2026 results in February 2027 show whether the company met its guidance. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is higher interest rates, which raise the cost of the investment plan and make utility shares less attractive.
- Risks
- The data center strategy depends on a few large customers. If Amazon or Alphabet ends a contract or reduces its capacity, or if new plants cost more than planned, NiSource can earn less on its GenCo investments.
Interest expense rose 44% in the first half of 2026. The large capital plan needs new debt and equity. Higher rates increase costs and can make it harder to keep investment grade ratings.
State regulators set rates and returns in six states. A rate case with a lower return or a delay in cost recovery reduces earnings growth.
Gas utilities can have pipeline safety incidents, and weather affects gas demand. Warm weather reduced revenue in the first half of 2026, net of the normalization mechanisms.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $70M
Debt: $17.4B
Net debt: $17.3B
Interest cover: 2.7×
Undrawn credit line: $2.5B
Debt due within 12 months: $1.8B
NiSource funds its utilities with senior notes, junior subordinated notes, commercial paper and receivables programs. At June 30, 2026, total debt was $17.40 billion: long-term debt of $15.61 billion, current maturities of $1.10 billion and short-term borrowings of $692 million. Cash was $70 million. The $2.50 billion revolving credit facility had no borrowings, and available liquidity was $2.10 billion. In May and August 2026, NiSource sold $2.0 billion of new notes and junior subordinated notes. Interest cover is operating income divided by net interest expense for the first half of 2026. Blackstone Infrastructure and other minority holders also fund part of NIPSCO and GenCo with equity contributions, which were $124.5 million in the first half of 2026.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: guidance and data center plan. Pending. Watch: A reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07 and progress on GenCo projects pass; lower guidance or a delay in the data center projects fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): 2026 results: EPS guidance met. Pending. Watch: 2026 adjusted EPS within $2.02 to $2.07 and a reaffirmed 9% to 10% growth target pass; EPS below the range or a lower target fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-15: NIPSCO Generation signed a tolling agreement with an AGP Group company for a 600 MW / 2,400 MWh battery storage project connected to the MISO grid. The first phase is expected to start by December 1, 2027. GenCo will pay about $2.2 billion over a term of about 20.5 years. The agreement needs regulatory approval and an engineering contract and an interconnection agreement by January 31, 2027.
2026-08-18: NiSource sold $750 million of 6.250% fixed-to-fixed reset rate junior subordinated notes due 2057.
2026-08-05: NiSource reported Q2 2026 results. Adjusted EPS was $0.16, down from $0.22, and GAAP EPS was $0.09. It reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07, the 9% to 10% annual growth target from 2026 to 2033 and the $28.6 billion capital plan for 2026 to 2030. NiSource said that regulators approved NIPSCO's special contracts with Amazon and Alphabet, which bring about $1.4 billion of savings for existing customers.
2026-05-18: NiSource sold $500 million of 4.750% notes due 2031 and $750 million of 5.300% notes due 2036 to repay existing debt.
2026-02-11: NiSource reported 2025 results and gave 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07. It began to report base plan adjusted EPS, which leaves out data center activities, next to consolidated adjusted EPS.