- Price
- $259.18 → $261.94(+1.1%)
- Discount
- 13.6% → 12.7%(−0.9 pts)
- Thesis
- The market still prices Marvell's custom chip business serves a small number of large cloud companies that design their own AI chips instead of buying from Nvidiaas unpredictable and unproven. Growth in this business has been lumpy, since revenueRevenue depends on a small number of big customer programs starting and ramping up. Management has raised its revenue outlook twiceGrowth in a rowthis business has swung sharply before, andwhich makes investors cautious about counting on the pace management now guides. For the gap to close, Marvell's newest programs, expanded a deal with a major cloud customer to include, must ramp up on schedule from fiscal 2029 onward. Marvell's new 2-nanometer optical interconnect products, shown at an industry conference in September 2026, must also convert into real design wins, not just investor excitement. Custom silicon revenue must keep more than doubling each year, as management has guided for fiscal 2028 and fiscal 2029. The next checkpoint is Marvell's Investor Day on October 6, 2026. Management is expected to lay out this custom chip programs-silicon roadmap in more detail there. If these programs ramp up as planned over the next three to five quarters, Marvell's growth can catch up to what its higherfaster-growthgrowing peers already show, and the discountgap can close. If a large customer moves work in-house or to a rival like Broadcom, the gap could persist.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-22: At the ECOC 2026 optical-networking conference in Spain, Marvell showed new 2-nanometer optical interconnect products. These include 800G and 1.6T pluggable parts and a large co-packaged optics platform built for AI data centers. The stock rose as much as 6% on the news.
2026-08-27: Marvell reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue reached a company record of $2.74 billion. Management raised the fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to about $12 billion, and the fiscal 2028 outlook to about $18 billion.
2026-08-27: Marvell expanded its custom chip agreement with a major cloud customer to include more programs, with revenue expected from fiscal 2029 onward.