- Price
- $18.82
- Fair value
- $35.00
- Discount
- 46.2%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 2.71
- Moat
- None
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-04
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Mosaic
- Sector
- Fertilizers (phosphate & potash)
- About
- Mosaic mines and makes phosphate and potash fertilizers. It has three segments. Phosphate mines phosphate rock in Florida and makes fertilizers such as DAP with sulfur and ammonia. Potash mines potash in Saskatchewan, Canada, and sells it as MOP. Mosaic Fertilizantes makes and distributes fertilizers in Brazil. Mosaic also has a small biologicals business, Mosaic Biosciences. It holds shares of the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden). In 2026, Mosaic sold its Carlsbad potash mine in New Mexico, decided to sell its Araxá complex in Brazil and to idle mining at Patrocínio. Its results move with fertilizer prices and with the cost of sulfur and ammonia.
- Thesis
- The market prices Mosaic for high sulfur and ammonia costs that make phosphate production unprofitable. Sulfur cost $522 per long ton in Q2 2026, and the Q3 sulfur contracts settled at $705. The Phosphate segment had a gross margin of minus $4 per tonne in Q2 2026, and Mosaic cut production: Faustina is idle and Bartow runs at 40% of its target rate. Brazil also idles its commodity fertilizer production. Mosaic had a net loss of $531 million in the first half of 2026, with $442 million of charges for the Araxá and Patrocínio decisions in Q1. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $407 million in Q2 2026 from $566 million a year earlier. Potash is the stable part, with $278 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Sulfur and ammonia costs must fall, which Mosaic believes is temporary, so that phosphate plants can return to full rates. Phosphate prices must stay high while global supply stays tight. Potash must produce about 9 million tonnes in 2026 at lower unit costs. The Q3 2026 report, estimated for about November 4, 2026, shows the effect of the curtailments and the higher sulfur cost. The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 shows whether production restarts. If raw material costs return to normal, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. The main reason it may not close is a long period of high sulfur costs, which Mosaic cannot control.
- Risks
- Sulfur and ammonia are the main raw materials for phosphate fertilizer. The Q3 2026 sulfur price of $705 per long ton is much higher than the $522 of Q2. If these costs stay high, phosphate plants stay curtailed and the Phosphate segment keeps losing money.
Fertilizer prices move with crop prices, farmer income and government policy in China and India. A fall in phosphate or potash prices reduces earnings quickly.
In Brazil, Mosaic Fertilizantes had lower sales volumes, higher unit costs and charges of about $482 million for the Araxá and Patrocínio decisions in the first half of 2026. Mosaic expects the segment's Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be lower than in Q2.
Free cash flow was minus $153 million in Q2 2026. Debt rose to $5.86 billion at June 30, 2026. If cash flow does not improve in the second half of 2026 as the company expects, debt can stay high.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $294M
Debt: $5.9B
Net debt: $5.6B
Undrawn credit line: $2.0B, to May 2030
Debt due within 12 months: $1.1B
Mosaic funds its operations with senior notes, commercial paper and bank loans. At June 30, 2026, total debt was $5.86 billion: short-term debt of $1.02 billion, which includes $519.2 million of commercial paper, current maturities of $66.7 million and long-term debt of $4.77 billion. Cash was $294 million. In August 2026, Mosaic sold $2.0 billion of new notes due 2031, 2034 and 2036 and used the money to buy back notes due 2027 to 2029 in tender offers. It then redeemed the rest of the 2027 and 2028 notes with cash. This moved most maturities to 2031 and later. The $2.5 billion revolving credit facility runs to May 2030 and backs the commercial paper program, and $2.0 billion of it was available at June 30, 2026. Mosaic says that it targets debt ratios in line with investment grade metrics. The figures leave out EBITDA and interest cover because the first half of 2026 had large charges and an operating loss. The Ma'aden shares are a further source of cash.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 4, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: phosphate margins and cash flow. Pending. Watch: Positive free cash flow and Phosphate adjusted EBITDA near the $128 million of Q2 2026 pass; a larger Phosphate loss or new cuts to production fail.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings: production restart. Pending. Watch: Lower sulfur costs and a plan to restart curtailed phosphate production pass; continued curtailments into 2027 fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-23: Mosaic said that Karen Swager, Executive Vice President of Operations, will retire. Walter Precourt III becomes Executive Vice President of Operations on December 1, 2026.
2026-08-28: Mosaic issued notices to redeem with cash on hand all remaining 4.050% notes due 2027 ($304.9 million), 5.375% notes due 2028 ($124.1 million) and 7.30% debentures due 2028 ($108.2 million). The 2027 notes were redeemed on September 28, 2026.
2026-08-17: Mosaic sold $2.0 billion of new senior notes: $1.0 billion due 2031 at 5.350%, $500 million due 2034 at 5.650% and $500 million due 2036 at 5.900%. It used the money for tender offers for its notes due 2027, 2028 and 2029, which ended on August 14, 2026.
2026-08-04: Mosaic reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $2.8 billion, and the net loss was $273 million, or $0.86 per share, after $351 million of notable items, including a $162 million fall in the value of its Ma'aden shares. Adjusted EBITDA was $407 million and adjusted EPS was $0.13. Mosaic cut its 2026 capital spending plan to $1.2 billion. It completed the sale of the Carlsbad potash mine in April. Because of high sulfur and ammonia costs, it partly curtailed phosphate production in May and added more curtailments in early July: Faustina is idle and Bartow runs at 40% of its target rate.
2026-06-10: Mosaic signed a $1.0 billion delayed draw term loan, with a 364-day tranche of $500 million and a three-year tranche of $500 million, to refinance commercial paper.