- Price
- $28.60
- Fair value
- $48.00
- Discount
- 40.4%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 2.56
- Moat
- None
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-29
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- MGM Resorts International
- Sector
- Casinos & resorts
- About
- MGM Resorts International owns and operates casino resorts. On the Las Vegas Strip, its resorts include Aria, Bellagio, The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas and MGM Grand Las Vegas. It also operates regional casinos in other states, and it controls MGM China, which runs casino resorts in Macau. MGM Digital runs online gaming outside North America through LeoVegas, and MGM owns 50% of BetMGM, which offers online betting and gaming in North America. MGM leases the real estate of many of its resorts from VICI Properties and other owners, so it pays large rents. With a partner, it builds MGM Osaka, an integrated resort in Japan that it expects to open in 2030. People Inc., formerly IAC, owns about 26.5% of MGM's shares.
- Thesis
- The market prices MGM for weak results and for the end of a buyout proposal. On June 1, 2026, IAC, now People Inc., proposed to buy all other shares for $48.30 per share in cash, and on September 23, 2026, it withdrew the proposal. In Q2 2026, Las Vegas Strip revenue rose 3%, but RevPAR fell 4%, MGM China's Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 15%, and MGM Digital lost money and took a goodwill impairment of $111 million. MGM also has large lease payments. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Las Vegas Strip revenue and EBITDAR must keep growing. MGM China must keep its margins while it pays a higher branding fee. MGM Digital must lower its losses, and MGM must continue to repurchase shares with the $1.4 billion left under its plan. People Inc. said that it is still open to a strategic transaction, which could also close the gap, but no new offer exists. The Q3 2026 report, expected in late October 2026, and the Q4 report in February 2027 give the next evidence. The gap closes slowly, over two to three years, unless a new transaction comes. The main reason it may not close is weak demand in Las Vegas, which would lower room rates and gaming revenue.
- Risks
- Las Vegas depends on travel and consumer spending. RevPAR on the Las Vegas Strip fell 4% in Q2 2026, and weaker demand can lower room rates and gaming revenue further.
MGM pays large rents for the resorts that it leases. Operating lease liabilities were $23.78 billion at June 30, 2026. These fixed payments make earnings fall fast when revenue falls.
Macau results depend on China's economy and rules. MGM China's Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 15% in Q2 2026, partly because of a higher branding fee to MGM.
MGM Digital loses money, and MGM recorded a goodwill impairment of $111 million for it in Q2 2026. More losses or write-downs are possible.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $2.5B
Debt: $6.1B
Net debt: $3.5B
Interest cover: 4.0×
Undrawn credit line: $2.3B
At June 30, 2026, long-term debt was $6.07 billion, and cash was $2.55 billion. MGM classifies debt due within one year as long-term because it intends and is able to refinance it; that debt includes $400 million of senior notes due 2026. MGM's own debt includes notes due from 2026 to 2036, and MGM China has its own notes and a revolving credit facility, on which $344 million was drawn. No amounts were drawn on MGM's $2.3 billion revolving credit facility. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first half of 2026. Operating lease liabilities, mostly for resorts leased from VICI Properties, were $23.78 billion more.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: Las Vegas and Macau. Pending. Watch: Growth in Las Vegas Strip EBITDAR and stable MGM China margins pass; a fall in Las Vegas EBITDAR fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings: digital losses. Pending. Watch: Smaller MGM Digital losses and continued share repurchases pass; larger losses or a stop to repurchases fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-23: People Inc., formerly IAC, withdrew its non-binding proposal to buy all MGM shares that it does not own. It said that it remains open to a strategic transaction with MGM. It owns about 26.5% of MGM's shares.
2026-07-29: MGM reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $4.5 billion, up 1%. Las Vegas Strip revenue rose 3% to $2.2 billion, while RevPAR fell 4%. MGM China's Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 15% to $257 million, and MGM Digital recorded a goodwill impairment of $111 million. Adjusted EPS was $0.59, compared with $0.79 a year earlier. In April 2026, MGM sold the operations of MGM Northfield Park for $546 million, and its annual rent to VICI fell by $53 million.
2026-06-01: IAC proposed to buy all MGM shares that it did not own for $48.30 per share in cash. The proposal was non-binding.
2026-05-13: MGM China Holdings sold $750 million of 6.25% senior notes due 2033.
2026-04-03: MGM signed a voting agreement with IAC and Barry Diller. When they own more than 25.73% of MGM's voting power, they vote the extra shares in the same proportion as the other shareholders.