MGEEElectric & gas utility
MGE Energy
Updated
- Price
- $72.27
- Fair value
- fair value $77.00
- Discount
- 6.1% below fair value
- LSEG rating
- LSEG 2.80 — lower is better (1–5)
- Next earnings
- Earnings Nov 5 · · estimated
Loading your notes…
In short
- Thesis
- The market prices MGE Energy as a small utility that issues new shares in a time of high interest rates, and the approved 2027 rate increases with steady rate base growth can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The 2027 rate increase, the Fuel Cost Plan decision by the end of 2026 and the next quarterly reports give dated tests.
- Next test
- (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings
About
MGE Energy is a public utility holding company based in Madison, Wisconsin. Its main subsidiary, Madison Gas and Electric, generates and distributes electricity to 170,000 customers in Dane County, Wisconsin, and buys and distributes natural gas to 180,000 customers in seven counties in south-central and western Wisconsin. It owns shares in coal, natural gas, wind and solar plants, and it invests in more solar, wind and battery storage.
The Public Service Commission of Wisconsin sets its rates, so earnings grow mostly with the rate base. MGE Energy has increased its dividend for 51 years in a row.
Thesis
The market prices MGE Energy as a small, slow-growing utility that must issue new shares and debt to pay for its investments. Its electric rates rose only 0.15% in 2026 under the rate settlement, and it sold new shares in May 2026. The value depends much on interest rates, because investors buy the stock mainly for its dividend. For the gap to close, three things must be true.
The approved increase of 3.63% in electric rates and 2.04% in gas rates for 2027 must take effect, as the settlement says. The Public Service Commission of Wisconsin must approve the 2027 Fuel Cost Plan by the end of 2026. MGE must complete its solar, wind and battery projects near their approved costs, so that rate base and earnings grow. The Q3 2026 report, expected in early November 2026, and the full-year report in early 2027 give the next evidence.
If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is higher interest rates, which lower the value of utility shares and raise the cost of new debt.
Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026 · est.PendingQ3 2026 earningsHigher year-to-date earnings from the growing rate base pass; lower earnings without a weather or one-time cause fail.
- Dec 2026 · est.Pending2027 Fuel Cost Plan decisionApproval of the 2027 Fuel Cost Plan by the end of 2026 passes; a delay or a large disallowance fails.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $17M
- Debt
- $934M
- Net debt
- $917M
- Interest cover
- 4.5×
- times profit pays interest
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $917M
When the debt is due
At June 30, 2026, debt was $934 million: long-term debt of $879 million, long-term debt due within one year of $21 million and short-term debt of $35 million. Cash was $17 million. Interest cover is operating income divided by net interest expense for the first half of 2026. On October 1, 2026, MGE Energy and Madison Gas and Electric extended their credit agreements to October 1, 2031. At June 30, 2026, Madison Gas and Electric had $140 million of remaining regulatory authority to issue long-term debt.
Risks
- Higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt and make the dividend less attractive compared with bonds. This can lower the share price even if earnings grow.
- The investment plan needs new shares and new debt. In May 2026, MGE Energy sold 3.3 million shares, partly under forward agreements. More shares lower the growth in EPS.
- Some projects cost more than the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin first approved. MGE asks for recovery of the higher costs, but regulators may not allow all of them.
- MGE plans to stop the use of coal as a primary fuel at the Elm Road Units by the end of 2030. The change needs approval and investment, and costs can increase.
Recent events
- October 1, 2026MGE Energy and Madison Gas and Electric amended their credit agreements and extended them to October 1, 2031. One of the Madison Gas and Electric agreements with JPMorgan Chase increased from $90 million to $210 million.
- August 21, 2026MGE Energy increased its quarterly dividend by 7.0% to $0.5083 per share. This was its 51st year in a row of dividend increases.
- August 5, 2026MGE Energy reported Q2 2026 results. Net income was $33.4 million, or $0.89 per share, compared with $0.72 a year earlier. Electric earnings rose $3.0 million because of a higher rate base from new renewable projects, and investment gains of about $3.9 million also helped.
Show 1 older eventHide older events
- May 6, 2026MGE Energy agreed to sell 3,300,331 shares in a public offering. It sold 990,099 shares directly, for net proceeds of about $72.2 million, and the other 2,310,232 shares were sold under forward sale agreements, which it settles later.
Similar companies
- AEEAmerenShares: Power and energy, Interest rates
- Discount
- 1.8%
- LSEG
- 2.17
- Gap
- Can close
- DDominion EnergyShares: Power and energy, Interest rates
- Discount
- 12.9%
- LSEG
- 2.71
- Gap
- Will probably not close
- DTEDTE EnergyShares: Power and energy, Interest rates
- Discount
- 17.4%
- LSEG
- 2.11
- Gap
- Can close
- DUKDuke EnergyShares: Power and energy, Interest rates
- Discount
- 7.3%
- LSEG
- 2.32
- Gap
- Can close
- LNTAlliant EnergyShares: Power and energy, Interest rates
- Discount
- 11.3%
- LSEG
- 2.21
- Gap
- Can close
Read it all? Star MGEE or pass, then go on to the next one.