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MGEEElectric & gas utility

MGE Energy

Narrow moatLow uncertainty

Updated

Price
$72.27
Fair value
fair value $77.00
Discount
6.1% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 2.80 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Nov 5 · · estimated

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In short

Thesis
The market prices MGE Energy as a small utility that issues new shares in a time of high interest rates, and the approved 2027 rate increases with steady rate base growth can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The 2027 rate increase, the Fuel Cost Plan decision by the end of 2026 and the next quarterly reports give dated tests.
Next test
(estimate): Q3 2026 earnings

About

MGE Energy is a public utility holding company based in Madison, Wisconsin. Its main subsidiary, Madison Gas and Electric, generates and distributes electricity to 170,000 customers in Dane County, Wisconsin, and buys and distributes natural gas to 180,000 customers in seven counties in south-central and western Wisconsin. It owns shares in coal, natural gas, wind and solar plants, and it invests in more solar, wind and battery storage.

The Public Service Commission of Wisconsin sets its rates, so earnings grow mostly with the rate base. MGE Energy has increased its dividend for 51 years in a row.

Thesis

The market prices MGE Energy as a small, slow-growing utility that must issue new shares and debt to pay for its investments. Its electric rates rose only 0.15% in 2026 under the rate settlement, and it sold new shares in May 2026. The value depends much on interest rates, because investors buy the stock mainly for its dividend. For the gap to close, three things must be true.

The approved increase of 3.63% in electric rates and 2.04% in gas rates for 2027 must take effect, as the settlement says. The Public Service Commission of Wisconsin must approve the 2027 Fuel Cost Plan by the end of 2026. MGE must complete its solar, wind and battery projects near their approved costs, so that rate base and earnings grow. The Q3 2026 report, expected in early November 2026, and the full-year report in early 2027 give the next evidence.

If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is higher interest rates, which lower the value of utility shares and raise the cost of new debt.

Checkpoints

  1. Nov 5, 2026 · est.Pending
    Q3 2026 earningsHigher year-to-date earnings from the growing rate base pass; lower earnings without a weather or one-time cause fail.
  2. Dec 2026 · est.Pending
    2027 Fuel Cost Plan decisionApproval of the 2027 Fuel Cost Plan by the end of 2026 passes; a delay or a large disallowance fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash
$17M
Debt
$934M
Net debt
$917M
Interest cover
4.5×
times profit pays interest

Cash against debt

Cash$17M
Debt$934M

debt covered by cashnet debt $917M

When the debt is due

12 months$55M
Later$879M

At June 30, 2026, debt was $934 million: long-term debt of $879 million, long-term debt due within one year of $21 million and short-term debt of $35 million. Cash was $17 million.

Risks

  • Higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt and make the dividend less attractive compared with bonds. This can lower the share price even if earnings grow.
  • The investment plan needs new shares and new debt. In May 2026, MGE Energy sold 3.3 million shares, partly under forward agreements. More shares lower the growth in EPS.
  • Some projects cost more than the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin first approved. MGE asks for recovery of the higher costs, but regulators may not allow all of them.
  • MGE plans to stop the use of coal as a primary fuel at the Elm Road Units by the end of 2030. The change needs approval and investment, and costs can increase.

Recent events

  • October 1, 2026MGE Energy and Madison Gas and Electric amended their credit agreements and extended them to October 1, 2031. One of the Madison Gas and Electric agreements with JPMorgan Chase increased from $90 million to $210 million.
  • August 21, 2026MGE Energy increased its quarterly dividend by 7.0% to $0.5083 per share. This was its 51st year in a row of dividend increases.
  • August 5, 2026MGE Energy reported Q2 2026 results. Net income was $33.4 million, or $0.89 per share, compared with $0.72 a year earlier. Electric earnings rose $3.0 million because of a higher rate base from new renewable projects, and investment gains of about $3.9 million also helped.
Show 1 older event
  • May 6, 2026MGE Energy agreed to sell 3,300,331 shares in a public offering. It sold 990,099 shares directly, for net proceeds of about $72.2 million, and the other 2,310,232 shares were sold under forward sale agreements, which it settles later.

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Read it all? Star MGEE or pass, then go on to the next one.