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META changes

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View the full Oct 2, 2026 version
Balance sheet
Meta borrows more each year to build data centers, but its reported debt is still small next to its profit. At June 30, 2026, it had $84.0 billion of fixed-rate senior unsecured notes at the parent. This includes $25.0 billion that it issued in May 2026, with coupons up to 6.45%. Against this, it had $90.3 billion of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities. No notes fall due in 2026, and only $2.75 billion fall due in 2027. Operating income of $41.6 billion in the first half of 2026 covered interest expense of $1.3 billion about 30 times. Moody's (Aa3) and S&P (AA-) rate the notes with stable outlooks. The larger obligations are off the balance sheet. There are $279 billion of signed leases that have not started. The maximum loss on the unconsolidated Louisiana data center venture is $46.0 billion, which includes residual value guarantees of about $28 billion. The El Paso venture with BlackRock adds about $13 billion more of residual value guarantees. The balance sheet already shows $28.7 billion of operating lease liabilities. These structures let Meta build without much more reported debt. But they act like debt if the data centers lose value or Meta stops using them. In the first half of 2026, capital expenditure of $49.1 billion took most of the $64.1 billion operating cash flow. Meta bought back no shares in that half. Unless AI revenue grows, more spending will need more borrowing or partner money. As of 2026-06-30.
Checkpoints
Oct 29, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: free cash flow, Meta One and capex. Pending. Watch: Ad revenue growth above cost growth, first Meta One revenue and a free cash flow recovery from Q2 pass; free cash flow near zero again or a higher capex guide fails. Jan 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 capital spending guidance. Pending. Watch: A 2027 capex plan that operating cash flow can mostly fund, with buybacks restarted or less new debt, passes; capex that again outruns cash flow fails. Q2 2027 (estimate): Meta One and Muse paid revenue at scale. Pending. Watch: Clear reported subscription revenue that keeps growing after the launch period passes; subscriptions that fall after the free trials end fail.