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MDTMedical devices

Medtronic

Narrow moatMedium uncertainty

Updated

Price
$94.75
Fair value
fair value $112.00
Discount
15.4% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 2.07 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Dec 1 · · estimated

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In short

Thesis
The market doubts that Medtronic can keep its faster growth, and results on the raised fiscal 2027 guidance with strong cardiac ablation growth over two to four quarters can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The Q2 and Q3 fiscal 2027 reports show whether growth holds without the extra fiscal week and after the MiniMed separation.
Next test
(estimate): Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings: growth without the extra week

About

Medtronic is one of the largest medical device companies in the world. It is based in Galway, Ireland, and has more than 95,000 employees in more than 150 countries. Its Cardiovascular portfolio makes pacemakers, defibrillators, cardiac ablation systems such as Affera, heart valves and vascular products. Its Neuroscience portfolio makes products for the spine, the brain, pain and pelvic health.

Its Medical Surgical portfolio makes surgical tools, robotic surgery systems and patient monitoring products. Medtronic separated its diabetes business into MiniMed Group, which sold shares to the public on March 9, 2026. In October 2026, Medtronic exchanged all of its remaining MiniMed shares for its own shares.

Thesis

The market prices Medtronic as a large company that grows slowly, and investors doubt that its new products can keep growth high for a long time. In Q1 fiscal 2027, organic revenue grew 13.7%, but an extra fiscal week added about $570 million, so the underlying growth was lower. The separation of MiniMed also adds restructuring charges of $300 million to $500 million. For the gap to close, three things must be true.

Medtronic must reach its raised fiscal 2027 guidance of 7.25% to 7.75% organic revenue growth and non-GAAP EPS of $5.94 to $6.00. Cardiac ablation, which grew 88% in Q1, and other new platforms must keep strong growth without the extra week. The separation of MiniMed must leave few stranded costs with Medtronic. The Q2 fiscal 2027 report, expected in late November or early December 2026, and the Q3 report in February 2027 give the next evidence.

If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is that growth falls back to the old low rate after the extra week and the first strong year of cardiac ablation.

Checkpoints

  1. Dec 1, 2026 · est.Pending
    Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings: growth without the extra weekOrganic growth near the 7.25% to 7.75% guidance and the EPS guidance kept or raised pass; a cut to the guidance fails.
  2. Feb 2027 · est.Pending
    Q3 fiscal 2027 earnings: cardiac ablationContinued strong growth in cardiac ablation and stable margins after the MiniMed separation pass; slower ablation growth or higher stranded costs fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash
$1.7B
Debt
$28.2B
Net debt
$26.5B
Interest cover
9.5×
times profit pays interest

Cash against debt

Cash$1.7B
Debt$28.2B

debt covered by cashnet debt $26.5B

When the debt is due

12 months$2.5B
Later$25.6B

At July 31, 2026, debt was $28.15 billion: long-term debt of $25.62 billion and current debt obligations of $2.54 billion, which include $450 million of commercial paper. Cash was $1.69 billion, and investments were $7.13 billion more.

Risks

  • Q1 fiscal 2027 growth included an extra fiscal week worth about $570 million. Growth in the next quarters will look lower, and the market may doubt the raised guidance.
  • Cardiac ablation is a fast-growing market with strong competitors. If Medtronic loses share, or prices fall, a main source of growth becomes smaller.
  • The separation of MiniMed adds restructuring charges of about $300 million to $500 million and transition services. Costs that stay with Medtronic after the separation can lower margins.
  • Medical devices need regulatory approvals. A delay in an approval, a recall or a change in payment rules can lower sales of a product.

Recent events

  • October 14, 2026Medtronic announced the final results of the MiniMed exchange offer. Holders tendered about 297.5 million Medtronic shares, so the offer was oversubscribed. Medtronic exchanged all of its remaining 252.8 million MiniMed shares for 55.0 million Medtronic shares, and it no longer owns MiniMed shares.
  • September 14, 2026Medtronic started an offer to exchange shares of MiniMed Group for outstanding Medtronic shares, to complete the separation of its diabetes business.
  • September 1, 2026Medtronic reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue was $9.76 billion, up 13.7% organic, with about $570 million from an extra fiscal week. Cardiovascular grew 18.9%, and cardiac ablation grew 88%. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.45. Medtronic raised its fiscal 2027 guidance to organic revenue growth of 7.25% to 7.75% and non-GAAP EPS of $5.94 to $6.00.
Show 2 older events
  • July 16, 2026Medtronic completed the acquisition of SPR Therapeutics. It had completed the acquisition of Scientia Vascular on June 12, 2026.
  • March 9, 2026MiniMed Group, Medtronic's diabetes business, completed its initial public offering. Medtronic kept a controlling stake until the exchange offer in October 2026.

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