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MASBuilding products

Masco

Wide moatMedium uncertainty

Updated

Price
$72.03
Fair value
fair value $81.00
Discount
11.1% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 2.55 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Oct 28 ·

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In short

Thesis
Masco's North American sales fall as remodeling cools, and a one-time tariff refund hides it, so sales must grow again in 2027 for the gap to close.
Gap
Can close. The October 28, 2026 report and the 2027 outlook in February 2027 show whether North American sales grow again.
Next test
: Q3 2026 results: North American sales

About

Masco designs, makes and sells branded home improvement and building products. It reports two segments: Plumbing Products and Decorative Architectural Products. Plumbing Products includes Delta and hansgrohe faucets, bath and shower fixtures, Liberty hardware and HotSpring spas. Decorative Architectural Products includes Behr paint.

Masco makes money from the margin on these products. Its sales depend mostly on residential repair and remodel spending, and less on new home construction. Net sales were $1.99 billion in Q2 2026, and about 78% of them were in North America.

Thesis

The market discounts Masco because its North American sales are falling while US repair and remodel spending cools. In Q2 2026, net sales fell 3%, and North American sales fell 5% in local currency. Adjusted EPS grew 26%, but a one-time benefit of about $95 million from tariff refunds drove much of the growth. Investors looked through the refund to the weaker sales, and the stock fell 11.1% on July 29, 2026, the day of the report.

Several analysts then cut their price targets, and one said that the return on Masco's new growth investments is not clear. Mortgage rates near 7.5% in September 2026 keep home sales low, and fewer home sales mean less remodeling and less paint demand. For the gap to close, North American sales must stop falling and grow again in 2027, and the operating margin must stay high without the tariff refunds. Masco must also keep its buybacks, which used $592 million in the first half of 2026, without a large rise in debt.

The first test is the Q3 2026 report on October 28, 2026, and the 2027 outlook in February 2027. If volumes recover, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. If the housing market stays weak, the discount can last into 2028.

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 28, 2026Pending
    Q3 2026 results: North American salesNorth American sales that are flat or up in local currency and an adjusted operating margin near Q2 without new tariff refunds pass; another fall in North American sales or a cut to the 2026 outlook fails.
  2. Feb 2027 · est.Pending
    Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlookA 2027 outlook with sales growth and adjusted EPS above 2026 without the tariff refunds passes; an outlook of falling sales fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash
$548M
Debt
$3.2B
Net debt
$2.7B
Net debt / EBITDA
1.8×
EBITDA $1.5B, last 12 months
Interest cover
15×
times profit pays interest
Credit line
$1.0B
undrawn, to March 2031

Cash against debt

Cash$548M
Debt$3.2B

debt covered by cashnet debt $2.7B

Leverage: net debt / EBITDA

low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×

When the debt is due

12 months$2.0M
Later$3.2B

Masco funds itself with unsecured notes and a term loan of the parent company. At June 30, 2026, long-term debt was $3.245 billion and notes payable were $2 million.

Risks

  • Masco's sales depend on US repair and remodel spending and on DIY paint demand. Mortgage rates near 7.5% in September 2026 keep home sales low, and North American sales fell 5% in Q2 2026. If this lasts, volumes and margins fall.
  • Masco imports many plumbing products, and tariffs, mainly on goods from China, raise its costs. The 2026 profit includes a one-time net benefit from tariff refunds of about $85 million for the full year, which will not repeat.
  • Masco sells through a small number of large home centers and wholesalers. The loss of shelf space or a change in a large customer's orders would lower sales.
  • Masco spends on growth investments and buybacks while sales fall. Total liabilities were larger than total assets at June 30, 2026. If cash flow falls, Masco may need to cut buybacks or borrow more.

Recent events

  • September 28, 2026Masco said that it will release Q3 2026 results on October 28, 2026, before its conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET.
  • September 15, 2026Masco appointed Yaron Ben David as Chief Technology and AI Officer, effective September 15, 2026.
  • August 12, 2026Masco declared a quarterly dividend of $0.32 per share, payable on August 28, 2026.
Show 4 older events
  • July 29, 2026Masco reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales fell 3% to $1.99 billion, and North American sales fell 5% in local currency. Adjusted EPS grew 26% to $1.64, helped by a net benefit of about $95 million from tariff refunds. Masco raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $4.40 to $4.60, from $4.10 to $4.30, because of the refunds. The stock fell 11.1% that day, and Evercore ISI cut its rating to In Line.
  • July 27, 2026Masco completed a $300 million accelerated share repurchase that it started in May 2026, under the $2.0 billion buyback authorization that the board approved on February 10, 2026. It received about 4.1 million shares in total.
  • April 21, 2026Masco announced that Jai Shah, Group President of Plumbing and Wellness, will leave the company on July 3, 2026.
  • April 21, 2026Masco signed a two-year delayed draw term loan of up to $500 million, due April 21, 2028. It had borrowed $300 million of it at June 30, 2026.

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Read it all? Star MAS or pass, then go on to the next one.