- Price
- $495.75
- Fair value
- $540.00
- Discount
- 8.2%
- Uncertainty
- Low
- LSEG rating
- 2.23
- Moat
- Wide
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-29
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Linde
- Sector
- Industrial gases
- About
- Linde is the largest industrial gas company in the world, with sales of $34.0 billion in 2025. It produces oxygen, nitrogen and argon from air, and it also sells hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide and specialty gases. Large customers, such as chemical plants, refineries, steel mills and chip factories, get gas by pipeline from plants that Linde builds on or next to their sites, under contracts of 10 to 20 years with minimum purchase amounts and price escalation. Smaller customers buy liquid gas by truck or gas in cylinders. Linde Engineering designs and builds gas plants for Linde and for other companies. Linde also owns Lincare, a US home care business that supplies oxygen and respiratory equipment to patients. About 64% of 2025 sales came from outside the US. Linde makes money from long contracts and price increases, with an adjusted operating margin of 29.5% in Q2 2026.
- Thesis
- Linde trades at a discount because investors doubt that it can keep its margin and its earnings growth while industrial demand stays weak. In Q2 2026, the adjusted operating margin fell to 29.5% from 30.1%, and management said that it was not satisfied with the margin. Lincare, its US home care business, was the main drag, because its prices do not keep pace with cost inflation, and management is studying options that include a partial or full sale. Helium costs also rose because of the conflict in the Middle East, and management does not expect helium to normalize before early 2027. Linde raised its 2026 capital spending plan to $5.5 billion to $6.0 billion, so investors see more cash going into new plants before the profit comes. The stock fell about 5% on July 31, 2026, the day of the Q2 report. The long contracts and the record $8.1 billion sale of gas backlog, mostly for electronics customers, support future growth. For the gap to close, Linde must reach its Q3 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.45 to $4.55, show a higher margin from Q3 2026 as management expects, decide what to do with Lincare, and keep the sale of gas backlog above $8 billion at the end of 2026. The first test is the Q3 2026 report on October 29, 2026. The Q4 report and the 2027 outlook, expected in early February 2027, give the second test. If the margin recovers and Linde stays within its long-term target of 8% to 12% EPS growth, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main risk is a longer slowdown in industrial production in Europe and Asia.
- Risks
- Volumes depend on industrial production. In Q2 2026, EMEA volumes fell, mainly in manufacturing, and management said that tensions in the Middle East slowed industrial activity in India, parts of Southeast Asia, Australia and China. Linde's guidance assumes no economic improvement.
Lincare, the US home care business, lowers the margin because its prices do not keep pace with cost inflation. Management studies a partial or full sale, but it gave no date for a decision.
Linde plans $5.5 billion to $6.0 billion of capital spending in 2026, mostly for its $8.1 billion sale of gas backlog. Delays at customers, such as chip factories, can postpone the return on these plants.
The conflict in the Middle East raised helium supply costs. Management expects normal conditions only in early 2027, if supply from Qatar restarts.
About 64% of sales come from outside the US, so a stronger US dollar lowers reported sales and EPS.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $4.9B
Debt: $28.0B
Net debt: $23.1B
EBITDA, last 12 months: $13.4B
Net debt / EBITDA: 1.7× (low)
Interest cover: 40×
Undrawn credit line: $6.5B
Debt due within 12 months: $7.3B
Ratings: S&P A, Moody's A2
Linde has strong credit ratings and long-dated debt. At June 30, 2026, short-term debt was $4.9 billion, mostly $4.5 billion of commercial paper, and $2.5 billion of long-term debt was due within one year. Linde issued €1.6 billion of euro notes in May 2026 and repaid $725 million of US dollar notes in the first half of 2026. EBITDA is the reported EBITDA for the 12 months to June 2026. Interest cover uses net interest expense for the first half of 2026. Linde has two undrawn revolving credit agreements with no financial maintenance covenants: $5.0 billion to December 7, 2027 and $1.5 billion to December 2, 2026. The ratings are from the 10-K for 2025. Net debt was $21.9 billion at December 31, 2025, up from $16.8 billion a year earlier. In the first half of 2026, operating cash flow was $4.5 billion.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results: margin and EPS guidance. Pending. Watch: Adjusted EPS of $4.45 to $4.55 or more and a higher adjusted operating margin than in Q2 2026 pass; a lower margin or a cut to the 2026 guidance fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: 2027 EPS guidance within the long-term growth target of 8% to 12% and a sale of gas backlog above $8 billion pass; guidance below 8% growth fails.
2027 (estimate): Decision on Lincare. Pending. Watch: A sale or a clear plan that removes the margin drag of Lincare passes; no decision and a further fall in its margin fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-05: Linde said that it will report Q3 2026 results by 6:00 a.m. EDT on October 29, 2026, with a conference call at 9:00 a.m. EDT.
2026-07-31: Linde reported Q2 2026 results. Sales were $9.29 billion, up 9%, with underlying sales up 4% from 2% higher prices and 2% higher volumes. Adjusted EPS was $4.50, up 10%, and the adjusted operating margin was 29.5%. Linde raised the low end of its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $17.70 to $17.90 and raised its capital spending plan to $5.5 billion to $6.0 billion. A new US electronics contract raised the sale of gas backlog to a record $8.1 billion. The stock fell about 5% on the day.
2026-07-31: On the Q2 2026 call, management said that Lincare was the main reason for the lower margin, and that Linde studies strategic options for Lincare, including a partial or full sale. Management also said that helium costs will not normalize in 2026 and expects this in early 2027, depending on the Strait of Hormuz and the restart of supply from Qatar.
2026-05-13: Linde issued €1.6 billion of notes in three parts: €600 million of floating rate notes due 2028, €500 million of 3.200% notes due 2030 and €500 million of 3.800% notes due 2036.
2026-05-01: Linde reported Q1 2026 results. Sales were $8.8 billion, up 8%, with underlying sales up 3%. Adjusted EPS was $4.33, up 10%. The adjusted operating margin was 30.0%, down 10 basis points. Linde guided 2026 adjusted EPS at $17.60 to $17.90.