- Price
- $22.91
- Fair value
- $29.50
- Discount
- 22.3%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 2.39
- Moat
- None
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-29
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Kimco Realty
- Sector
- Shopping center REIT
- About
- Kimco Realty is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates open-air shopping centers in the United States. Most of its centers have a grocery store as an anchor tenant, and it also owns mixed-use properties with apartments and offices. Its centers are mostly in the suburbs of large coastal and Sun Belt cities. Tenants include grocery stores, discount stores, restaurants and service businesses that sell everyday goods and services. Kimco also lends money to owners of shopping centers through its Structured Investment Program, and it often gets the right to buy those centers later. Pro-rata leased occupancy was 96.4% at June 30, 2026, equal to its all-time high, and small shop occupancy was a record 92.9%.
- Thesis
- The market prices Kimco like other shopping center REITs, for the effect of higher interest rates on property values and for the risk that a weaker consumer causes tenant failures. FFO per share grows only slowly, by 4.5% in Q2 2026, and credit loss was 57 basis points of rental revenue in that quarter. Investors also worry that occupancy is near its peak, so growth must come from higher rents. Kimco's results are strong: same property NOI rose 3.5% in Q2 2026, rents on new leases were 40.4% higher than on the old leases, and the board raised the dividend 12% to $0.28 per quarter. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Occupancy must stay near 96% and the $75 million of rent from signed leases that have not started yet must start on time. Same property NOI must grow within the 3.0% to 3.5% guidance, and FFO per share must grow in 2027. Tenant failures must stay within the credit loss guidance of 55 to 75 basis points. The Q3 2026 report on October 29, 2026, and the 2027 guidance in February 2027 are the next tests. If they pass, and if long-term interest rates stop rising, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. The main reason it may not close is high long-term interest rates, which keep the value of all REITs low.
- Risks
- Higher long-term interest rates lower the value of real estate and raise the cost of new debt. REIT share prices often fall when interest rates rise.
A weaker consumer or more retailer bankruptcies can raise vacancies and credit losses. Credit loss was 57 basis points of rental revenue in Q2 2026, and the 2026 guidance is 55 to 75 basis points.
Occupancy is near its all-time high, so it has little room to rise. Future growth depends more on higher rents and on new investments.
Online shopping can lower demand for some kinds of store space, although Kimco focuses on grocery stores and services that need a physical location.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $700M
Debt: $8.7B
Net debt: $8.0B
Undrawn credit line: $2.0B, to March 2030
Kimco funds itself mostly with unsecured notes. Debt is notes payable of $8,308 million and mortgages payable of $432 million at June 30, 2026. In June 2026, it issued $600 million of 3.50% exchangeable senior notes due 2031. It also has a $550 million unsecured term loan due January 2027, with two one-year options to extend to January 2029. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $700 million. Its new $2.0 billion unsecured revolving credit facility from February 2026 was fully available, and it runs to March 2030, with options to extend to March 2031. Immediate liquidity was $2.7 billion. Kimco's unsecured debt ratings are A-, A- and A3. Total assets were $20.0 billion. The quarterly common dividend is $0.28 per share.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results: occupancy and FFO guidance. Pending. Watch: Occupancy near 96.4%, same property NOI growth of at least 3.0% and FFO guidance of $1.83 to $1.84 kept pass; lower occupancy or a guidance cut fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and the 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with FFO per share growth and credit loss within its usual range passes; flat FFO per share or higher credit loss fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-08-04: Kimco reported Q2 2026 results. FFO per share rose 4.5% to $0.46, and net income was $0.22 per share. Same property NOI rose 3.5%. Pro-rata leased occupancy rose to 96.4%, and rents on new leases were 40.4% above the old leases. The board raised the quarterly dividend 12.0% to $0.28 per share. Kimco raised its 2026 FFO guidance to $1.83 to $1.84 per share. In the quarter, it sold The Milton, a 253-unit apartment building at its Pentagon Centre property in Virginia, for $142.3 million, its first sale of an apartment property.
2026-08-04: After the quarter, Kimco sold four Costco-anchored properties for about $127 million and bought two centers in Florida, anchored by Walmart and Publix, for $109 million. It also bought back 516,750 shares of its 7.25% Class N preferred stock for $33.3 million.
2026-06-15: Kimco issued $600 million of 3.50% exchangeable senior notes due 2031. With the offering, it bought back about 4.1 million common shares for $104.7 million at $25.38 per share.