- Price
- $97.27
- Fair value
- $150.00
- Discount
- 35.2%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 2.75
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-04
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Ingredion
- Sector
- Food ingredients
- About
- Ingredion makes ingredients for food and beverage companies and for industrial customers. It turns corn, tapioca, potatoes, stevia and other plants into starches, sweeteners, texturizers and plant proteins. It reports three segments. Texture & Healthful Solutions sells specialty ingredients that give food its texture or reduce sugar, such as clean-label starches and stevia, and it had $627 million of net sales in Q2 2026. Food & Industrial Ingredients LATAM ($611 million) and Food & Industrial Ingredients U.S./CAN ($488 million) sell mostly sweeteners and starches in larger volumes at lower margins. Ingredion earns a margin over the cost of its raw materials, mostly corn, and it passes much of the corn cost to customers in its prices. On June 8, 2026, it agreed to buy Tate & Lyle, a UK maker of specialty ingredients for mouthfeel, sweetening and fortification.
- Thesis
- The market doubts the earnings power of Ingredion's base business and fears the cost of the Tate & Lyle purchase. Operational problems at the Argo plant, after a thermal event, cut Food & Industrial Ingredients U.S./CAN operating income by 48% in the first half of 2026, and Ingredion cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $10.30 to $10.90. Demand for sweeteners and starches in the US and Mexico is also soft. At the same time, Ingredion will pay 595 pence per share in cash for Tate & Lyle, an enterprise value of about £3.7 billion, at a premium of about 59% to the price before the offer. It will fund the deal with new debt, and it expects net leverage of about 3.0 times at completion, against debt of $1.8 billion at June 30, 2026. Investors ask whether the price is too high and whether the antitrust review will delay or change the deal. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Argo must stay at normal production rates, so that U.S./CAN operating income recovers in 2027. Texture & Healthful Solutions must keep its volume growth, which reached nine quarters in a row in Q2 2026. The Tate & Lyle deal must pass its antitrust conditions and close in the second half of 2027, as planned. After closing, Ingredion must deliver the planned net cost synergies of about $130 million a year by the end of 2030 and reduce leverage to about 2.5 times within about 18 months. The Q3 2026 report, expected in early November 2026, gives the first evidence on Argo, and the antitrust decisions and the deal closing in 2027 give the rest. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters.
- Risks
- The Tate & Lyle purchase is large and needs material antitrust approvals, and completion is expected only in the second half of 2027. A long review, a required sale of businesses or a failed deal can change its value. Ingredion must also integrate Tate & Lyle and deliver about $130 million of yearly cost synergies by 2030.
Debt rises with the deal. Ingredion expects net leverage of about 3.0 times at completion, from total debt of $1.8 billion at June 30, 2026. The purchase is in pounds sterling, and foreign exchange hedges caused a $47 million mark-to-market loss in Q2 2026.
Operations at Argo, Ingredion's large US plant, failed in the first half of 2026. Food & Industrial Ingredients U.S./CAN operating income fell 48% in that period, and Ingredion expects it down 20% to 25% for the year. Another plant problem would hurt results again.
Demand for sweeteners and starches is soft in the US and in Mexico, and the strong Mexican peso lowers LATAM profit. Food companies face pressure to cut sugar and change recipes, which can lower demand for corn sweeteners.
Ingredion depends on corn and tapioca prices, energy costs and tariffs. Guidance reflects tariff levels at the end of July 2026, and new tariffs can raise costs or reduce exports.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $952M
Debt: $1.8B
Net debt: $831M
Interest cover: 6.1×
Undrawn credit line: $1.0B
Debt due within 12 months: $541M
Last debt due: 2050
Ingredion funds itself mostly with unsecured senior notes. Debt is the carrying amount of total debt at June 30, 2026: notes of $500 million at 3.200% due October 1, 2026, $597 million at 2.900% due June 1, 2030, $253 million at 6.625% due April 15, 2037 and $392 million at 3.900% due June 1, 2050, and $41 million of short-term borrowings. Ingredion shows the October 2026 notes as long-term debt, because it intends and is able to refinance them; they are in due within 12 months here with the short-term borrowings. Cash is cash and short-term investments. The weighted average interest rate on debt was 4.0% in Q2 2026. Interest cover is operating income divided by financing costs for the first half of 2026, and Q2 financing costs included a $47 million loss on the pound sterling hedge for the deal. Liquidity was $3.9 billion at June 30, 2026, including a $1.0 billion five-year revolving credit agreement that backs commercial paper, and $1.9 billion of unused foreign credit lines. For Tate & Lyle, Ingredion has a $2,750 million bridge facility and a $1,475 million delayed draw term loan facility, with commitments to February 2, 2028, and it plans to issue new notes. It expects net leverage of about 3.0 times at completion and about 2.5 times within about 18 months. The quarterly dividend is $0.82 per share, and the buyback target is $100 million for 2026.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 4, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: Argo recovery and guidance. Pending. Watch: U.S./CAN operating income that improves with Argo at normal rates and the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.30 to $10.90 kept pass; another guidance cut fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with higher operating income in U.S./CAN and continued volume growth in Texture & Healthful Solutions passes; a lower 2027 outlook fails.
Q4 2027 (estimate): Tate & Lyle antitrust approvals and completion. Pending. Watch: Completion in the second half of 2027 without large required sales of businesses passes; a delay past early 2028 or a blocked deal fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-08-19: Ingredion named Diego Reynoso, former CFO of The Boston Beer Company, as Executive Vice President and CFO from October 1, 2026. Jason Payant had been interim CFO since April 1, 2026, after James Gray resigned.
2026-08-04: Ingredion reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales were $1.85 billion, up 1%. Reported operating income fell 31% to $188 million, because of the closure of the Cabo, Brazil plant and Argo costs, and adjusted operating income fell 5% to $258 million. Adjusted EPS was $2.82, down from $2.87. The Argo plant returned to normal production rates. Ingredion kept its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.30 to $10.90.
2026-07-28: Tate & Lyle shareholders approved Ingredion's all-cash offer of 595 pence per share. Completion still needs the sanction of the UK High Court and material antitrust approvals, and Ingredion expects it in the second half of 2027.
2026-06-30: Ingredion sold 51% of its Pakistan business, Rafhan Maize, to a group led by Nishat Group for about $165 million in cash. Rafhan Maize had about $250 million of net sales in 2025, and Ingredion keeps about 20% of it.
2026-06-24: Ingredion signed a $1,475 million delayed draw term loan facility for the Tate & Lyle purchase. It replaced part of a $4,225 million bridge facility signed on June 8, 2026, which fell to $2,750 million.
2026-06-08: Ingredion agreed to buy Tate & Lyle for 595 pence per share in cash, an enterprise value of about £3.7 billion ($5.0 billion) and a premium of about 59%. It expects about $130 million of yearly net cost synergies by the end of 2030, net leverage of about 3.0 times at completion and about 2.5 times within about 18 months.
2026-05-05: Ingredion reported Q1 2026 results. Reported EPS was $2.22, and adjusted EPS was $2.34, down from $2.97. A longer recovery at the Argo plant hurt results in U.S./CAN. Ingredion cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $10.45 to $11.15. It also decided to close its Cabo, Brazil plant, with charges of about $43 million.