HONA changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $158.78 → $154.97(−2.4%)
- Discount
- 38.0% → 39.5%(+1.5 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-05 → 2026-10-28
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- Most of the discount opened on a single day, August 5, 2026. That day, Honeywell Aerospace cut its first full-year guidance as an independent company. It blamed a shortage of castings, forgings, and other mechanical parts from a small group of suppliers. The stock fell as much as 24% that day. A securities class action lawsuit filed weeks later argues management understated how bad the shortage was. The company also carries about $16 billion of debt from its own spin-off and pays no dividend yet. That leaves little financial room for a further setback. The gap can close if the supply shortage eases as management now expects. That would let deferred aftermarket revenue, Honeywell's highest-margin business, reach customers. Orders still grew 8% in the most recent quarter and the backlog stands around $18 billion. So the case rests on supply catching up with demand, not on demand itself. A large order win, like the 2026 IndiGo avionics deal covering more than 800 aircraft, needs to keep showing up in revenue rather than staying stuck in the backlog. Management has reaffirmed its 2030 targets, but investors have no multi-year standalone track record to check that against yet. Honeywell Aerospace is expected towill report third-quarter 2026 results in early Novemberon October 28, 2026, after the market closes. That is the next chance to show supply is improving. If the shortage eases and the pending class action does not produce a large judgment, the discount could start to close over the next three to five quarters, not before 2027.