- Price
- $106.32
- Fair value
- $145.00
- Discount
- 26.7%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 2.11
- Moat
- None
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-30
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Federal Realty Investment Trust
- Sector
- Shopping center REIT
- About
- Federal Realty Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, operates and redevelops open-air shopping centers and mixed-use properties. Most of its properties are in major coastal markets, and some are in smaller regions with strong economic and population trends. Its 103 properties have about 3,700 tenants in 28.8 million square feet of commercial space and about 2,500 residential units. Its best-known mixed-use properties are Santana Row in San Jose, Pike & Rose in Maryland and Assembly Row near Boston. It raised its dividend in 2026 for the 59th year in a row, the longest record in the REIT sector.
- Thesis
- The market prices Federal Realty for the risk that weaker consumers and higher costs from tariffs push some retail tenants to close stores, and for higher interest costs. Federal Realty pays a large dividend, so higher interest rates make its shares less attractive and raise the cost of new debt. Total debt rose to $4.77 billion at June 30, 2026 from $4.49 billion a year earlier, and in August 2026 it issued $460 million of exchangeable notes that can turn into shares. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Federal Realty must reach its 2026 Core FFO guidance of $7.48 to $7.56 per share. Its record leasing must turn into income as new tenants open, which lifts occupancy from 93.8% toward its leased rate of 96.1%. Rent increases on new and renewed leases must stay near the 15% cash rate of Q2 2026. The Q3 2026 report on October 30, 2026 gives the next test. The 2027 guidance in February 2027 shows whether FFO growth continues toward the targets it gave for 2028 at its Investor Day. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a wave of retail bankruptcies, which would cut occupancy and rent.
- Risks
- Retail tenants can close stores or file for bankruptcy if consumers spend less or tariffs raise their costs. Empty space lowers rent until new tenants open.
Higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt and can lower the value of its properties. About 23% of its debt had variable rates at June 30, 2026.
Federal Realty spends a lot on redevelopment and new mixed-use projects. Projects that cost more or take longer than planned give lower returns.
The exchangeable notes issued in August 2026 can lead to new shares if the share price rises far enough, although capped calls reduce this dilution.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $107M
Debt: $4.8B
Net debt: $4.7B
Undrawn credit line: $1.1B, to April 2030
Last debt due: 2046
Federal Realty funds itself mainly with unsecured senior notes. At June 30, 2026, total debt was $4.77 billion and net debt was $4.66 billion, with cash of $107 million. Senior notes and debentures were $2.97 billion. About 77% of debt had fixed rates, and the weighted average interest rate was 4.22%. It had $286 million drawn on its $1.4 billion revolving credit facility, which matures in April 2030 with options to April 2031. Total debt was 39% of total assets against a covenant limit of 60%, and income covered annual debt service 3.9 times. After the quarter, in August 2026, it issued $460 million of 3.500% exchangeable notes due 2031 and plans to use most of the money to repay debt. Its last senior notes mature in 2046.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 30, 2026: Q3 2026 results: occupancy and leasing. Pending. Watch: Core FFO guidance kept at $7.48 to $7.56 per share or raised, with higher occupancy, passes; a cut in guidance or falling occupancy fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): 2027 guidance: FFO growth. Pending. Watch: 2027 Core FFO guidance with growth of about 4% or more passes; flat or lower Core FFO guidance fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-08-11: Federal Realty OP issued $460 million of 3.500% exchangeable senior notes due 2031. Holders can exchange them for cash and, above the principal, for cash or shares. Federal Realty bought capped calls to reduce dilution and plans to use the rest of the money to repay debt and for general purposes.
2026-07-31: Federal Realty reported Q2 2026 results. Core FFO rose 6.8% to $1.88 per share. It signed 124 leases for 819,273 square feet, an all-time record, with rent growth of 15% on a cash basis. Occupancy was 93.8% and the leased rate was 96.1%. It raised the quarterly dividend by 3% to $1.16 per share and raised its 2026 Core FFO guidance to $7.48 to $7.56 per share.
2026-05-21: At its Investor Day at Santana Row, Federal Realty updated its long-term growth strategy and gave a framework for FFO and AFFO per share growth targets through 2028.
2026-05-01: Federal Realty reported Q1 2026 results. Core FFO rose 10.6% to $1.88 per share, and comparable property operating income rose 4.7%. It bought Congressional North Shopping Center in Montgomery County, Maryland for $72.3 million in March 2026.
2026-04-14: Federal Realty replaced its $1.25 billion revolving credit facility with a $1.4 billion facility that matures on April 12, 2030, with two six-month extension options.