- Price
- $66.63
- Fair value
- $100.00
- Discount
- 33.4%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 2.00
- Moat
- None
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-04
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Freshpet
- Sector
- Pet food
- About
- Freshpet makes fresh, refrigerated food and treats for dogs and cats. It cooks the food in its own kitchens in the United States and sells it mainly through company-owned branded refrigerators, called Freshpet Fridges, in retail stores. At June 30, 2026, it had Freshpet Fridges in about 30,721 stores in North America and parts of Europe. It sells through grocery, mass, club, pet specialty and online channels. Net sales were $305.6 million in Q2 2026, up 15.5% from a year earlier. Freshpet believes that fresh pet food can become a $10 billion category over time.
- Thesis
- The market prices Freshpet for slower sales growth and for the risk that new competitors in fresh pet food take its customers. Freshpet expects net sales growth of 10% to 12% in 2026, slower than the 13.1% and 15.5% of Q1 and Q2, and it named new competitors, economic headwinds and an uncertain consumer as challenges. It also faces a harder comparison in Q3 2026, after a large club customer expansion a year earlier. Freshpet spends heavily on new production lines, about $150 million in 2026, so free cash flow is still small. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Net sales growth must stay in the 10% to 12% range in 2026 and stay faster than the category in 2027. The adjusted gross margin must keep rising toward the new target of more than 49%, as new production technology lowers costs. Free cash flow must grow beyond 2025, as the company expects, so that it can fund growth and buybacks without new debt. The Q3 2026 report on November 4, 2026 gives the next test. The 2027 outlook in February 2027 is the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is that competition and a weak consumer slow sales growth further.
- Risks
- Other pet food companies now sell fresh and refrigerated products. Freshpet says that many competitors try to copy it. More competition can slow its growth and force higher marketing spend or lower prices.
Freshpet sells premium pet food. If consumers spend less, they can trade down to cheaper pet food. Freshpet named the uncertain consumer environment as a risk to its 2026 sales.
Freshpet needs new production lines and new technology to grow and to lift margins. Delays, higher costs or quality problems at new lines would reduce profits.
Senior leaders change: a new CFO joined in February 2026 and the co-founder and President retires in October 2026. Changes in leaders can slow decisions.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $351M
Debt: $403M
Net debt: $52M
Last debt due: 2028
Freshpet has more cash than debt. At June 30, 2026, cash was $350.8 million. Its only debt was $402.5 million of 3.00% convertible senior notes due in 2028, carried at $398.4 million. Freshpet can settle the notes in cash, shares or both, and a capped call reduces the dilution if the shares rise. It also has finance leases of about $29 million. Operating cash flow was $84.8 million in the first half of 2026, and free cash flow was $27.4 million after capital spending. Freshpet expects capital spending of about $150 million in 2026 and free cash flow above that of 2025. It started buybacks in May 2026 and spent $86.5 million by the end of July.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 4, 2026: Q3 2026 results: growth against a hard comparison. Pending. Watch: Net sales growth that keeps the 2026 guidance of 10% to 12% and a higher adjusted gross margin pass; a cut in guidance fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): 2027 outlook: growth and free cash flow. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with net sales growth near 10% or more and higher free cash flow passes; an outlook for single-digit growth fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-08-05: Freshpet reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales rose 15.5% to $305.6 million, mainly from volume gains of 15.7%. The adjusted gross margin rose to 48.6% from 46.9%, net income was $19.5 million and adjusted EBITDA was $52.2 million. Freshpet raised its 2026 outlook to net sales growth of 10% to 12% and adjusted EBITDA of $210 million to $220 million. It raised its long-term adjusted gross margin target to more than 49%.
2026-06-22: Freshpet said that Scott Morris, its co-founder and President, will retire on October 20, 2026. He will then advise the company for 18 months.
2026-05-21: Freshpet announced its first share repurchase program. By the end of July 2026, it had bought back 1.6 million shares for $86.5 million.
2026-05-06: Freshpet reported Q1 2026 results. Net sales rose 13.1% to $297.6 million. Net income was $48.5 million, which includes a pre-tax gain on the sale of an equity investment. Adjusted EBITDA was $37.9 million. Freshpet raised its 2026 net sales growth guidance.
2026-02-04: Freshpet appointed John O'Connor as Chief Financial Officer from February 9, 2026, and Ana Lopez as Senior Vice President of Supply Chain. Ivan Garcia, the interim CFO since October 2025, became Senior Vice President of Finance.