FLUTOnline gambling

Flutter Entertainment

Narrow moatHigh uncertainty

Updated today · Oct 16

Price: $76.18
Fair value: fair value $187.00
Discount: 59.3% below fair value
LSEG rating: LSEG 1.97 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings: Earnings Nov 5 · in 3 weeks · estimated

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Second opinion (AI estimate): moat Narrow, fair value $98.91 (range $45.03 to $155.09).

How the AI estimate was made

The fair value, the moat and the uncertainty for Flutter Entertainment are an AI estimate from October 16, 2026. They are not an analyst's values. An AI research agent calculated them from Flutter Entertainment's filings and releases. The method is a multiple of 2027 adjusted EBITDA, less net debt and minority interests, per share. The second quarter 2026 release (8-K, August 5, 2026) gives second quarter revenue of $4,326 million, adjusted EBITDA of $508 million and adjusted EPS of $0.49. It lowers 2026 guidance to revenue of $17.91 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.655 billion at the midpoints. It gives net debt of $10,480 million on June 30, 2026, a leverage ratio of 4.3 times and planned gross savings of $500 million by 2029. The balance sheet gives redeemable minority interests of $377 million and other minority interests of $228 million. On September 28, 2026, the company stopped operations in Brazil after a government order, at a cost of about $70 million of revenue and $20 million of EBITDA in 2026 (8-K, September 28, 2026). Fox has an option to buy 18.6% of FanDuel. The estimate assumes that Fox pays fair value, so it makes no adjustment for it. The 10-Q cover gives 173.5 million shares on July 31, 2026. The share count fell only by buybacks, and the filings show no split or spin-off since 2025, so the per-share values use the same basis as the price. Adjusted EBITDA excludes stock-based compensation. The EBITDA values and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes slow recovery in US sportsbook, higher taxes and a long Brazil ban, at 7 times $2.7 billion of EBITDA, for $45.03 per share. The base case assumes 2027 adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 billion from cost savings and a US recovery, at 8.5 times $3.3 billion of EBITDA, for $97.76 per share. The high case assumes a strong US recovery and a higher multiple, at 10 times $3.8 billion of EBITDA, for $155.09 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted fair value is $98.91 per share. The spread s is 0.56, so the uncertainty is Very High. High leverage, US competition from prediction markets, tax increases and regulation cause most of the spread. The moat is Narrow. Scale gives a cost advantage in pricing, product and marketing, and FanDuel had 39% of US sportsbook and 27% of US iGaming gross gaming revenue in the second quarter of 2026. Brands such as FanDuel, Paddy Power and Sisal are intangible assets, and state licenses limit entry. Customers can switch apps easily, and taxes and rules can change fast, as Brazil showed. For these reasons, the estimate does not give a Wide moat.

AI estimate of October 16, 2026. It is not the analysts' value.

In short

Thesis: Falling US profit, prediction markets, higher taxes and a new CEO hold Flutter down, so FanDuel must grow again and leverage must fall for the gap to close.
Gap: Can close. The NFL season results, the Brazil decision due within 120 days and the 2027 guidance give dated tests within about two years.
Next test: Nov 5, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: FanDuel customers and guidance

About

Flutter is the largest online sports betting and iGaming (online casino) company in the world. In the US, it owns FanDuel, which had 39% of US online sportsbook gross gaming revenue and 27% of iGaming gross gaming revenue in Q2 2026. FanDuel also runs FanDuel Predicts, a prediction market product. Outside the US, Flutter owns brands such as Paddy Power, Betfair and Sportsbet, and it owns Snai in Italy and 56% of NSX (Betnacional) in Brazil.

Flutter makes money from the margin on bets and from casino games, after taxes and promotions. It expects 2026 revenue of about $17.9 billion at the midpoint of its guidance. Since August 3, 2026, its shares trade only on the New York Stock Exchange.

Thesis

Flutter trades at a discount because its US profit fell sharply, regulators and new competitors keep raising costs, and the CEO changed. In Q2 2026, US revenue fell 6% and US adjusted EBITDA fell 70%, after FanDuel lost customers from Q4 2025 and spent on prediction markets and new states. Prediction markets offer sports contracts also in states without legal sports betting, and investors fear that they take business from sportsbooks. On August 5, 2026, Flutter cut its 2026 guidance by $395 million of revenue and $210 million of adjusted EBITDA at the midpoints, and it said that Peter Jackson will hand over to Dan Taylor as CEO on October 1, 2026.

Taxes also rose, such as the UK gaming tax, and on September 25, 2026, Brazil banned online betting by a provisional order, so Flutter stopped its business there. Leverage rose to 4.3 times EBITDA at June 30, 2026, against a target of 2.0 to 2.5 times. For the gap to close, FanDuel must grow its customer base and sportsbook revenue again during the 2026 NFL season, the $500 million cost plan must protect margins, Brazil's Congress must reject or change the ban within 120 days, and leverage must fall toward the target. The first test is the Q3 2026 report, expected in early November 2026.

The decision in Brazil is due by about late January 2027, and the 2027 guidance comes in early 2027. If the US business grows again, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. The main risk is that prediction markets take a large share of US sports betting.

Checkpoints

Nov 5, 2026 · est.Pending
Q3 2026 results: FanDuel customers and guidanceGrowth in US sportsbook customers and handle, US iGaming growth and no further guidance cut beyond Brazil pass; another cut to US guidance fails.
Jan 2027 · est.Pending
Brazil: Congress decision on the betting banCongress rejects or changes the provisional ban so that Flutter can reopen in Brazil passes; a permanent ban fails.
Feb 2027 · est.Pending
Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance2027 guidance with growth in US adjusted EBITDA and a path to leverage of 2.0 to 2.5 times passes; lower US profit or higher leverage fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash: $1.6B
Debt: $12.1B
Net debt: $10.5B
Net debt / EBITDA: 4.3×; as the company states it
Credit line: $1.1B; undrawn

Cash against debt

Cash$1.6B

Debt$12.1B

debt covered by cashnet debt $10.5B

Leverage: net debt / EBITDA

low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×

When the debt is due

12 months$106M

Later$12.0B

The last debt is due in 2032.

At June 30, 2026, Flutter had $1.56 billion of cash, not counting $1.99 billion of cash held for player deposits, and $12.06 billion of debt principal with accrued interest. The debt is mostly secured: term loans A due 2028, term loans B due 2030 and 2032, £275 million drawn on a revolving credit facility due 2028, and senior secured notes in US dollars, euros and pounds due 2029 and 2031.

As of June 30, 2026

Show 3 sources

Risks

Prediction markets offer sports contracts also in US states that have not legalized sports betting. Flutter says that it sees limited loss of its own customers in regulated states so far, but it watches the effect closely. It now spends on its own product, FanDuel Predicts, which lowers profit in the short term.
Gambling taxes and rules can change quickly. The UK raised its gaming tax, which cut International adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026, and Brazil banned online betting on September 25, 2026. Flutter also closed its business in India in August 2025.
Leverage was 4.3 times adjusted EBITDA at June 30, 2026, against a target of 2.0 to 2.5 times. Lower EBITDA slows the path back to the target and can limit share buybacks.
The leadership changed. A new Group CEO started on October 1, 2026, FanDuel's CEO left in May 2026, and the Chief Legal Officer left in September 2026.
Sports results change revenue from quarter to quarter. Results that favored customers cut US revenue growth by 6 percentage points in Q2 2026.

Recent events

October 1, 2026Dan Taylor became Group CEO, and Peter Jackson stepped down after nearly nine years. The Chief Legal Officer, Don Liu, resigned effective September 30, 2026, and Edward Traynor became interim Chief Legal Officer.
September 28, 2026Flutter stopped sports betting and iGaming in Brazil after a provisional executive order of September 25, 2026, banned online betting there. The order needs approval of Congress within 120 days to stay in effect. If Brazil stays closed for the rest of 2026, Flutter expects about $70 million less revenue and about $20 million less adjusted EBITDA. The stock fell about 8% that day.
August 5, 2026Flutter reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 3% to $4.33 billion, but adjusted EBITDA fell 45% to $508 million, and the net loss was $296 million. US revenue fell 6%, and US adjusted EBITDA fell 70% to $119 million. Flutter cut its 2026 guidance to about $17.91 billion of revenue and $2.655 billion of adjusted EBITDA at the midpoints and started a plan for $500 million of gross cost savings by 2029. The stock fell about 11% that day.

Show 3 older events

August 3, 2026Flutter completed the cancellation of its secondary listing on the London Stock Exchange. Its shares now trade only on the New York Stock Exchange.
May 11, 2026Flutter completed a $250 million share buyback tranche for the first half of 2026, with 2.4 million shares bought.
May 6, 2026Flutter reported Q1 2026 results. Group revenue rose 17% with acquisitions, and US revenue rose 6% to $1.76 billion. Amy Howe left as CEO of FanDuel, and Christian Genetski, President of FanDuel, took over the business.

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