- Price
- $12.43
- Fair value
- $19.00
- Discount
- 34.6%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 2.50
- Moat
- None
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-28
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Ford Motor
- Sector
- Automobiles
- About
- Ford Motor designs, builds and sells cars, trucks, SUVs and vans under the Ford and Lincoln brands. It reports three automotive segments. Ford Blue sells gasoline and hybrid vehicles to consumers, such as the F-Series pickups, Bronco, Explorer and Mustang. Ford Pro sells vehicles, software and services to commercial customers, such as the Transit van and Super Duty trucks. Ford Model e makes electric vehicles and develops software and the new Universal EV platform. Ford Credit finances vehicles for customers and dealers. Revenue was $91.5 billion in the first half of 2026. The F-Series has been the best-selling truck in the United States for 49 years, and Ford expects it to reach 50 years in 2026.
- Thesis
- The market prices Ford for low profit margins, large losses on electric vehicles and many outside shocks. Ford Model e expects a loss of about $4.0 billion in 2026, and Ford took a $3.6 billion charge in Q2 2026 to exit its battery joint venture with SK On. Fires at a Novelis aluminum plant cut truck production in late 2025 and early 2026, and tariffs and recall costs lowered profits in recent years. A supplier problem also stopped some F-150 production at the end of September 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Ford must reach its raised 2026 guidance of $10.0 billion to $11.0 billion of adjusted EBIT and $6.0 billion to $7.0 billion of adjusted free cash flow. Ford Pro must return to its usual margins as aluminum supply recovers, and Ford Model e losses must fall after the cancelled EV programs. Ford must also receive the tariff reimbursements it expects, including about $500 million in the second half of 2026. The Q3 2026 report, estimated for about October 28, 2026, gives the next test. The 2027 guidance in February 2027 is the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a new large cost from recalls, tariffs or supply problems, like the costs that cut Ford's earnings in 2025.
- Risks
- Recalls and warranty costs have often reduced Ford's earnings. A large new recall or field service action can cost hundreds of millions of dollars, such as the $571 million fuel injector action in Q2 2025.
Ford Model e expects a loss of about $4.0 billion in 2026, which includes about $1 billion of investment in the Universal EV platform and Ford Energy. If new electric vehicles do not sell well, the losses can last longer.
Tariffs and trade rules change often. Ford expects about $3 billion of tariff reimbursements, but the timing is uncertain. New tariffs on parts or vehicles would raise costs.
Ford depends on a few key suppliers. Fires at a Novelis aluminum plant in 2025 cut production, and a supplier problem affected F-150 production in September 2026.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $22.3B
Debt: $23.6B
Net debt: $1.3B
Ford reports its automotive business (Company excluding Ford Credit) apart from Ford Credit, its finance company. At June 30, 2026, Company excluding Ford Credit had $23.6 billion of debt, up from $21.9 billion at December 31, 2025, mainly because Ford assumed the $3.8 billion Department of Energy loan for a Kentucky battery plant, while it repaid $2.3 billion of convertible notes in cash. Ford had $22.3 billion of cash and $43.4 billion of liquidity at the end of Q2 2026. Its main credit facilities have $3.4 billion of commitments to April 2029 and $10.1 billion to April 2031. Ford Credit had $137.3 billion of debt, mostly unsecured debt and asset-backed securities, which it uses to fund loans and leases to customers and dealers. Ford pays a regular dividend of 15 cents per share each quarter.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: Ford Pro recovery and guidance. Pending. Watch: Ford keeps or raises its 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance of $10.0 billion to $11.0 billion and Ford Pro margins improve as aluminum supply recovers; a cut in guidance or a large new special charge fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): 2027 guidance: EBIT and Model e losses. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance for adjusted EBIT at or above the 2026 level with smaller Model e losses passes; lower EBIT guidance or larger EV losses fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-02: Ford reported Q3 2026 US sales. It estimated that its retail share rose about 0.4 percentage points to 12.1%, without the Escape and Corsair that it is phasing out. Super Duty production of 110,275 trucks was the best quarter in 19 years. Ford said that the cost of a short-term supplier problem that affected F-150 production at the end of September fits within its 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance.
2026-07-28: Ford reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue fell 4% to $48.3 billion, and the net loss was $1.3 billion because of $4.2 billion of special charges, including $3.6 billion for the exit from the BlueOval SK joint venture. Adjusted EBIT rose to $2.5 billion and adjusted free cash flow was $2.1 billion. Ford raised its 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $10.0 billion to $11.0 billion and its adjusted free cash flow guidance to $6.0 billion to $7.0 billion.
2026-05-20: Ford completed the exit from BlueOval SK, its battery joint venture with SK On. Ford's obligation to put up to $6.6 billion of capital into the venture ended. A Ford subsidiary took over the two Kentucky battery plants, and Ford assumed a $3.8 billion loan from the US Department of Energy at 4.814%, with a final maturity in 2040.
2026-04-15: Ford extended its main credit facilities: $3.4 billion of commitments now mature in April 2029 and $10.1 billion in April 2031. Doug Field, Chief EV, Digital and Design Officer, decided to leave the company.
2026-03-16: Ford settled the $2.3 billion principal of its 0.00% convertible notes in cash and issued 6.6 million shares for the rest of the conversion value. It started a buyback of up to 31.7 million shares to offset the dilution from the notes and from share-based pay.