- Fair value
- $55.00 → $42.00(−23.6%)
- Discount
- 35.5% → 15.5%(−20.0 pts)
- Moat
- Wide → Narrow
- About
- Experian is one of the world's largest credit bureaus. It collects data on how people and businesses borrow and repay money, then. It sells credit reports, scores, and analytics to banks, lenders, insurers, and other businesses that need tomust decide who to whom they lend to or with whom they do business with. Its biggest market is North America is its largest market, with about 67% of revenue in the year to March 2026. There, where itExperian also runs Experian Health and a large auto-automotive data business. Latin America, mostly Brazil through itsthe Serasa brand, isgives about 15% of revenue, followed by the. The UK and Ireland atgive 11%, and EMEA and Asia Pacific atgive 7%. Alongside its business-to-business data business, Experian also runs a large Consumer Services armbusiness with more than 215 million free members worldwide, who. They get free credit monitoringreports and identity protectionmonitoring, withand some pay for premium subscriptions and product tie-ins like earned-wage access as a smaller extra revenue streamor identity protection. Experian is incorporated in Jersey but, is tax -resident in Ireland, with and has its head office in Dublin. Its main listing is on the London Stock Exchange, where it is ain the FTSE 100 constituent; the. Each US ADR (EXPGY), each representing is one ordinary share, and trades over the counter on OTCQX. Brian Cassin has been CEO since July 2014.
- Thesis
- Investors worryfear that lenders will need less credit bureau data. AI tools and new competitors willdata sources can let lenders score borrowers without paying a credit bureau,. US mortgage policy now adds a company that collects and sells consumer credit datasecond fear. FICO's move to announced in October 2025 that it will license mortgage scores directly to mortgage lenders. In September 2026 the head of the FHFA, starting in October 2025the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, showed this fear is not only theoreticalopened VantageScore 4. A weaker US dollar and worries about US consumer credit have added0 to all of their lenders and said that the pressurebureaus charge too much. In October 2026 Bloomberg reported that the FHFA will let lenders pull credit reports from two bureaus instead of three. The gap can close if Experian keeps organic revenue growth inside its 6%- to 8% guided rangeguidance for fiscal 2027, as it did in fiscal Q1 2027 with 7% organic growth reported in July 2026the first quarter. It also needs to keep showing that its own proprietary dataNorth America B2B growth must stay strong while the mortgage rules change, not just its score calculations, is what lenders and insurers actually pay forthe new cash flow data and fraud products must add growth. A resolution ofsettlement or ruling in the CFPB lawsuit over "sham" dispute investigations, without a large penalty, would remove a second source ofsmaller doubt. Experian reportsThe evidence comes with the half-year FY27 results on November 18, 2026. That is, the next point where investors can check organic growth againstthird-quarter update in January 2027 and the full-year results with fiscal 2028 guidance in May 2027. If growth holds through that report and the one after itthese reports, the discountgap can start to close over the next two to four quarters. But if a new entrantIf the mortgage changes or an AI tool proves it can score credit risk without payingscoring cause a bureauclear loss of volume, the discount couldgap can stay wide, or widen,open for years rather than close.
- Risks
- Investors worry thatLenders can need less bureau data if AI tools willor new data sources let lenders assess creditworthinessthem score borrowers without paying a bureau, and. The FICO's plan from October 2025 move to sell mortgage scores directly to lenders shows that a majorlarge partner is already willingready to cutremove the bureaus out offrom part of the fee chain. This fear, more than any single quarter's results, is why the stock trades well below fair valuemain reason for the price.
US mortgage policy is moving against the bureaus. In September 2026 the FHFA opened VantageScore 4.0 to all lenders of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and said that the bureaus charge too much. In October 2026 Bloomberg reported a plan to accept reports from two bureaus instead of three. Each bureau can then lose some mortgage report volume and some pricing power.
The CFPB is suing Experian Information Solutions over alleged "sham" investigations of consumer credit-report disputes. A federalThe court let the case proceed past a motion to dismisscontinue in October 2025, and discovery is ongoingcontinues. An adverse outcomeA loss could bring financial penalties and force costliermore costly dispute-handling processes.
North America isgives about two-thirds of group revenue and is tied todepends on US consumer credit and mortgage activity. A slowdown inLess US lending, a weaker labor market, or reduced mortgage originationsfewer mortgages would directly cutdecrease the volumenumber of reports and scores that Experian sells.
US political pressure on consumer lending, including proposals to cap credit card interest rates and continued scrutiny of data brokers and credit bureaus, could restrict can limit how Experian collects, prices, or uses consumer data. In January 2026 President Trump called for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, and bills for such a cap are in Congress.
Experian reports in US dollars but earns significantmuch revenue in British pounds, Brazilian real,reais and other currencies. SwingsChanges in the dollar can make reported growth look better or worse than the underlying business.
Experian has been making frequent bolt-on acquisitionsbuys many small companies (idwallClearSale in 2025, KYC360 in 2025, ClearSale,Own Up and othersKonfir in April 2026, idwall in July 2026) to add fraud and, identity capabilitiesand data products. Integrating several deals at once adds execution risk even though none of themEach deal is individually large.
Experian is going through a chair transitionsmall, with Adam Crozier succeeding long-serving chair Mike Rogers in July 2026. Governance transitions like this rarely move the stock on their own, but they add a small amount of uncertaintymany integrations at the board levelsame time add execution risk.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $326M
Debt: $5.5B
Net debt: $5.2B
EBITDA, last 12 months: $3.0B
Net debt / EBITDA: 1.7× (low)
Interest cover: 1113×
Undrawn credit line: $2.5B
Debt due within 12 months: $572M
Last debt due: 20352036
Ratings: S&P A- (stable outlook), Moody's A3 (stable outlook)
Experian reports in US dollars. ItsMost of its debt is mostly unsecured bonds that the group issues centrally. Net debt was 1.7 times Benchmark EBITDA at March 31, and leverage is2026, below the group's own range of 2.0 to 2.5 times range, which. This gives room to fundfor the new $1 billion buyback and, more bolt-on dealssmall acquisitions and to keep a strong credit rating. At March 31, 2026, debt was $5,028 million of bonds and notes, $278 million of commercial paper, $90 million of bank loans and $133 million of leases. The reportedReported net debt was $5,179 million, which includes a $24 million derivative asset that hedges the debt. The amount due within one year counts the bonds only. EBITDA is Benchmark EBITDA for the year to March 2026, and interestInterest cover is Benchmark EBIT of $2,397 million overdivided by net interest expense of $185 million (interest expense of $219 million less interest income of $34 million). The bonds are in euros, US dollars and pounds, mostly at fixed rates. A 500 million euro bond fell due on June 25, 2026. On June 17, 2026 Experian sold a $1 billion 5.35% bond due in August 2036. The next bond to fall due is a 300 million euro floating -rate note duein March 2028. In April and May 2026 Experian signed two new $250 million bank loans. The company expects net interest of $250 million to $260 million in fiscal 2027. The UK pension planplans had a net surplus of $183 million. Goodwill and other intangibles from acquisitions make up mostintangible assets of $10,339 million are almost twice the net assets of $5.6 billion,583 million, because of net assetspast acquisitions and buybacks.
As of 2026-03-31.
- Checkpoints
- Jul 16, 2026: Q1 FY27 trading update: organic growth against guidance. Passed. Watch: Organic revenue growth inside the 6% to 8% range with guidance kept passes; growth below 6% or a guidance cut fails. Outcome: Organic revenue grew 7% and Experian kept its full-year guidance unchanged.
Oct 2026 (estimate): FHFA decision on credit reports from two bureaus. Pending. Watch: No change, or a change that starts slowly and keeps Experian in most mortgage files, passes; an immediate move to two bureaus with lower report prices fails.
Nov 18, 2026: H1 FY27 results: organic growth, margin and leverage. Pending. Watch: Organic growth of 6% to 8% with a higher Benchmark EBIT margin passes; growth below 6% or weaker North America B2B growth fails.
Jan 2027 (estimate): Q3 FY27 trading update. Pending. Watch: Organic growth stays inside the 6% to 8% range with no sign that lenders are dropping bureau data passes; a slowdown below 6% fails.
May 2027 (estimate): FY27 full-year results and FY28 guidance. Pending. Watch: Full-year organic growth of 6% to 8% and FY28 guidance for similar growth pass; lower FY28 growth guidance because of AI or, score competition or mortgage rule changes fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-0910-06: Experian launched the Experian Cashflow Data Bureau, a new US consumer reporting agency for bank-account cash flow data that lenders can use with credit files.
2026-10-01: Bloomberg reported that the FHFA plans to let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac accept credit reports from any two of the three national bureaus instead of all three. The report said that the FHFA director was expected to announce the change at the Mortgage Bankers Association convention on October 12, 2026. US bureau shares fell on October 2.
2026-09-04: FHFA director Bill Pulte told Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac openedto accept VantageScore 4.0 tofrom all approved mortgage lenders. Lenders no longer need prior written approvalThis ended a pilot for at most 50 lenders that started on May 1, 2026. He said that the bureaus charge too much and that the FHFA was considering reports from two bureaus. The Experian ADR fell 4.8% to $37.91 on the day. Experian co-owns VantageScore with Equifax and TransUnion.
2026-07-22: Shareholders approved all 17 resolutions at the annual meeting. Adam Crozier was elected with 98.97% of votes and became chair after the meeting. Brian Cassin was re-elected with 99.37%.
2026-07-16: Experian'sThe Q1 FY27 trading update showed total revenue up 10% at actual exchange rates, and 7% organically, in the middle of itsthe 6%- to 8% guidance for the full -year guidance range. North America B2B grew 11% organically while. North America Consumer Services fell 2% as abecause two data -breach response contract wound downsupport contracts ended; without them it grew 3%. FullExperian did not change its full-year guidance was left unchanged.
2026-07-01: Experian'sSerasa, the Brazilian unit of Experian, Serasa, completed its acquisitionthe purchase of idwall, a digital -identity and fraud -prevention specialist, forcompany. Experian did not disclose the price. Brazilian press reports gave about BRL 400 million (roughly .
2026-06-17: Experian sold a US$71 million)1 billion bond with a 5.35% coupon, due on August 24, 2036. The money is for general purposes, which include the repayment of debt.
2026-05-20: Experian reported recordresults for FY26 full-, the year results (year endedto March 31, 2026):. Ongoing revenue ofwas $8,425 million, up 13% at actual exchange rates and 8% organically;. The Benchmark EBIT margin ofwas 28.6%, up 50-60 basis points; at actual rates. Benchmark EPS uprose 15%. The board raisedincreased the full-year dividend by 11% to 69.25 US cents. Experian bought back $725 million of shares in FY26 and announced a new $1 billion buyback through June 2027, after buying back $725 million. FY27 guidance is 6% to 8% organic growth and a margin gain of stock in FY26about 50 basis points. Shares still fell on the day on continued AI-disruption worries despite the beat.
2026-04-21: Experian named Adam Crozier, chair of BT Group and a former CEO of ITV and Royal Mail, as chair -designate,. He was to succeedreplace Mike Rogers as chair onceafter the July 2026 annual meeting concluded.
2026-01-26: Experian shares extended a slidefell to a two-year low. Analysts, down about 13% for the month, after analysts (including Panmure Liberum) pointed to fears, named the fear that AI will disrupt the credit-bureau business bureaus, alongside athe weak US dollar and the FICO's move plan to sell mortgage credit scores directly to lenders. The fall started after the Q3 FY26 trading update of January 21, 2026, which showed 8% organic growth.
2025-11-12: Experian reported H1 FY26 results (, for the six months to September 30, 2025): total revenue up. Revenue grew 12% at constant currency,exchange rates and 8% organically, with organic. Organic growth acceleratingincreased from 8% in Q1 to 9% in Q2. Benchmark EBIT grew 14%, and the margin rose 50 basis points. The board raisedincreased the interim dividend by 10% to 21.25 US cents and liftedmoved full-year organic revenue guidance to the top of its prior range, aroundabout 8% organic growth.
2025-10-22: A US federal court denied Experian'sthe motion of Experian to dismiss the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's January 2025 CFPB lawsuit, which alleges. The lawsuit says that Experian randid "sham investigations" of consumer credit-report disputes in violation ofabout credit reports, against the Fair Credit Reporting Act, and ordered. The court told Experian to answer the complaint. Litigation is ongoing, with a court ruling on Experian's affirmative defenses following inIn January 2026 the court struck some of the defenses of Experian.
2025-10-02: FICO announced that it will license its credit scores directly to mortgage resellers and lenders and resellers, letting them bypassso that they can pay less to bureaus likesuch as Experian for part of the mortgage credit-score feescores. On October 14, 2025, Experian responded by cutting the price ofmade its own VantageScore 4.0 offering and offering itmortgage scores free of charge for a limited timean indefinite period.