- Company name
- Experian
- Sector
- Credit bureaus & data analytics
- About
- Experian is one of the world's largest credit bureaus. It collects data on how people and businesses borrow and repay money, then sells credit reports, scores, and analytics to banks, lenders, insurers, and other businesses that need to decide who to lend to or do business with. Its biggest market is North America, about 67% of revenue, where it also runs Experian Health and a large auto-data business. Latin America, mostly Brazil through its Serasa brand, is about 15% of revenue, followed by the UK and Ireland at 11% and EMEA and Asia Pacific at 7%. Alongside its business-to-business data business, Experian runs a large Consumer Services arm with more than 215 million free members worldwide, who get free credit monitoring and identity protection, with premium subscriptions and product tie-ins like earned-wage access as a smaller extra revenue stream. Experian is incorporated in Jersey but tax-resident in Ireland, with its head office in Dublin. Its main listing is on the London Stock Exchange, where it is a FTSE 100 constituent; the US ADR (EXPGY), each representing one ordinary share, trades over the counter on OTCQX. Brian Cassin has been CEO since 2014.
- Thesis
- Investors worry that AI tools and new competitors will let lenders score borrowers without paying a credit bureau, a company that collects and sells consumer credit data. FICO's move to license scores directly to mortgage lenders, starting in October 2025, showed this fear is not only theoretical. A weaker US dollar and worries about US consumer credit have added to the pressure. The gap can close if Experian keeps organic revenue growth inside its 6%-8% guided range, as it did in fiscal Q1 2027 with 7% organic growth reported in July 2026. It also needs to keep showing that its own proprietary data, not just its score calculations, is what lenders and insurers actually pay for. A resolution of the CFPB lawsuit over "sham" dispute investigations, without a large penalty, would remove a second source of doubt. Experian reports half-year FY27 results on November 18, 2026. That is the next point where investors can check organic growth against guidance. If growth holds through that report and the one after it, the discount can start to close over the next two to four quarters. But if a new entrant or an AI tool proves it can score credit risk without paying a bureau, the discount could stay wide, or widen, for years rather than close.
- Risks
- Investors worry that AI tools will let lenders assess creditworthiness without paying a bureau, and FICO's October 2025 move to sell mortgage scores directly to lenders shows a major partner is already willing to cut bureaus out of part of the fee chain. This fear, more than any single quarter's results, is why the stock trades well below fair value.
The CFPB is suing Experian Information Solutions over alleged "sham" investigations of consumer credit-report disputes. A federal court let the case proceed past a motion to dismiss in October 2025, and discovery is ongoing. An adverse outcome could bring financial penalties and force costlier dispute-handling processes.
North America is about two-thirds of group revenue and is tied to US consumer credit and mortgage activity. A slowdown in US lending, a weaker labor market, or reduced mortgage originations would directly cut the volume of reports and scores Experian sells.
US political pressure on consumer lending, including proposals to cap credit card interest rates and continued scrutiny of data brokers and credit bureaus, could restrict how Experian collects, prices, or uses consumer data.
Experian reports in US dollars but earns significant revenue in British pounds, Brazilian real, and other currencies. Swings in the dollar can make reported growth look better or worse than the underlying business.
Experian has been making frequent bolt-on acquisitions (idwall, KYC360, ClearSale, and others) to add fraud and identity capabilities. Integrating several deals at once adds execution risk even though none of them is individually large.
Experian is going through a chair transition, with Adam Crozier succeeding long-serving chair Mike Rogers in July 2026. Governance transitions like this rarely move the stock on their own, but they add a small amount of uncertainty at the board level.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $326M
Debt: $5.5B
Net debt: $5.2B
EBITDA, last 12 months: $3.0B
Net debt / EBITDA: 1.7× (low)
Interest cover: 11×
Undrawn credit line: $2.5B
Debt due within 12 months: $572M
Last debt due: 2035
Ratings: S&P A- (stable outlook), Moody's A3 (stable outlook)
Experian reports in US dollars. Its debt is mostly unsecured bonds that the group issues centrally, and leverage is below the group's own 2.0 to 2.5 times range, which gives room to fund the new $1 billion buyback and more bolt-on deals and to keep a strong credit rating. At March 31, 2026, debt was $5,028 million of bonds and notes, $278 million of commercial paper, $90 million of bank loans and $133 million of leases. The reported net debt was $5,179 million. The amount due within one year counts the bonds only. EBITDA is Benchmark EBITDA for the year to March 2026, and interest cover is Benchmark EBIT of $2,397 million over interest expense of $219 million. The bonds are in euros, US dollars and pounds, mostly at fixed rates. A 500 million euro bond fell due on June 25, 2026. The next bond is a 300 million euro floating-rate note due March 2028. The company expects net interest of $250 to $260 million in fiscal 2027. The UK pension plan had a net surplus of $183 million. Goodwill and other intangibles from acquisitions make up most of the $5.6 billion of net assets.
As of 2026-03-31.
- Checkpoints
- Jul 16, 2026: Q1 FY27 trading update: organic growth against guidance. Passed. Watch: Organic revenue growth inside the 6% to 8% range with guidance kept passes; growth below 6% or a guidance cut fails. Outcome: Organic revenue grew 7% and Experian kept its full-year guidance unchanged.
Nov 18, 2026: H1 FY27 results: organic growth, margin and leverage. Pending. Watch: Organic growth of 6% to 8% with a higher Benchmark EBIT margin passes; growth below 6% or weaker North America B2B growth fails.
Jan 2027 (estimate): Q3 FY27 trading update. Pending. Watch: Organic growth stays inside the 6% to 8% range with no sign that lenders are dropping bureau data passes; a slowdown below 6% fails.
May 2027 (estimate): FY27 full-year results and FY28 guidance. Pending. Watch: Full-year organic growth of 6% to 8% and FY28 guidance for similar growth pass; lower FY28 growth guidance because of AI or score competition fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-09: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac opened VantageScore 4.0 to all approved mortgage lenders. Lenders no longer need prior written approval. Experian co-owns VantageScore with Equifax and TransUnion.
2026-07-16: Experian's Q1 FY27 trading update showed total revenue up 10% at actual rates, 7% organically, in the middle of its 6%-8% full-year guidance range. North America B2B grew 11% organically while North America Consumer Services fell 2% as a data-breach response contract wound down. Full-year guidance was left unchanged.
2026-07-01: Experian's Brazilian unit, Serasa, completed its acquisition of idwall, a digital-identity and fraud-prevention specialist, for about BRL 400 million (roughly $71 million).
2026-05-20: Experian reported record FY26 full-year results (year ended March 31, 2026): revenue of $8,425 million, up 13% at actual rates and 8% organically; Benchmark EBIT margin of 28.6%, up 50-60 basis points; Benchmark EPS up 15%. The board raised the full-year dividend 11% to 69.25 US cents and announced a new $1 billion buyback through June 2027, after buying back $725 million of stock in FY26. Shares still fell on the day on continued AI-disruption worries despite the beat.
2026-04-21: Experian named Adam Crozier, former CEO of ITV and Royal Mail, as chair-designate, to succeed Mike Rogers as chair once the July 2026 annual meeting concluded.
2026-01-26: Experian shares extended a slide to a two-year low, down about 13% for the month, after analysts (including Panmure Liberum) pointed to fears that AI will disrupt the credit-bureau business, alongside a weak US dollar and FICO's move to sell mortgage credit scores directly to lenders.
2025-11-12: Experian reported H1 FY26 results (six months to September 30, 2025): total revenue up 12% at constant currency, 8% organically, with organic growth accelerating from 8% in Q1 to 9% in Q2. Benchmark EBIT grew 14% and margin rose 50 basis points. The board raised the interim dividend 10% and lifted full-year organic revenue guidance to the top of its prior range, around 8%.
2025-10-22: A US federal court denied Experian's motion to dismiss the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's January 2025 lawsuit, which alleges Experian ran "sham investigations" of consumer credit-report disputes in violation of the Fair Credit Reporting Act, and ordered Experian to answer the complaint. Litigation is ongoing, with a court ruling on Experian's affirmative defenses following in January 2026.
2025-10-02: FICO announced it will license its credit scores directly to mortgage resellers and lenders, letting them bypass bureaus like Experian for part of the mortgage credit-score fee. Experian responded by cutting the price of its own VantageScore 4.0 offering and offering it free for a limited time.