- Price
- $35.49
- Fair value
- $55.00
- Discount
- 35.5%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 1.67
- Moat
- Wide
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-18
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Experian
- Sector
- Credit bureaus & data analytics
- About
- Experian is one of the world's largest credit bureaus. It collects data on how people and businesses borrow and repay money, then sells credit reports, scores, and analytics to banks, lenders, insurers, and other businesses that need to decide who to lend to or do business with. Its biggest market is North America, about 67% of revenue, where it also runs Experian Health and a large auto-data business. Latin America, mostly Brazil through its Serasa brand, is about 15% of revenue, followed by the UK and Ireland at 11% and EMEA and Asia Pacific at 7%. Alongside its business-to-business data business, Experian runs a large Consumer Services arm with more than 215 million free members worldwide, who get free credit monitoring and identity protection, with premium subscriptions and product tie-ins like earned-wage access as a smaller extra revenue stream. Experian is incorporated in Jersey but tax-resident in Ireland, with its head office in Dublin. Its main listing is on the London Stock Exchange, where it is a FTSE 100 constituent; the US ADR (EXPGY), each representing one ordinary share, trades over the counter on OTCQX. Brian Cassin has been CEO since 2014.
- Thesis
- At $35.49, EXPGY trades about 35% below the analysts' $55.00 fair value estimate. The gap opened mainly because investors worry that AI will let lenders and other AI tools score borrowers without paying a bureau like Experian, and because FICO, whose scores Experian resells, said in October 2025 it will start licensing scores directly to mortgage lenders, cutting bureaus out of part of that fee. A weaker US dollar, political pressure to cap US credit card interest rates, and worries about US consumer credit health have added to the pressure, and the stock fell to a two-year low in January 2026 even as results kept beating guidance. The case for the discount closing rests on Experian's own numbers: full-year FY26 (ended March 2026) organic revenue grew 8%, at the top of guidance, EBIT margin expanded, and Q1 FY27 organic growth held at 7%, still within Experian's 6%-8% guided range. More than 90% of Experian's revenue comes from its own proprietary data, which is harder for a general-purpose AI model to replicate than the score calculation itself, and management is leaning into AI as a product (Ascend analytics, an AI-driven Patient Access Curator in healthcare) rather than only as a threat. The board keeps raising the dividend and buying back stock, funded by that growth. The honest counter-case: if AI tools or new entrants really do erode the bureaus' role as toll-collector on credit data over time, or if a slowing US consumer and mortgage market cuts the volume of reports Experian sells, growth could slow well before the market's AI fears prove wrong, and a discount can stay wide, or widen further, for a long time.
- Risks
- Investors worry that AI tools will let lenders assess creditworthiness without paying a bureau, and FICO's October 2025 move to sell mortgage scores directly to lenders shows a major partner is already willing to cut bureaus out of part of the fee chain. This fear, more than any single quarter's results, is why the stock trades well below fair value.
The CFPB is suing Experian Information Solutions over alleged "sham" investigations of consumer credit-report disputes. A federal court let the case proceed past a motion to dismiss in October 2025, and discovery is ongoing. An adverse outcome could bring financial penalties and force costlier dispute-handling processes.
North America is about two-thirds of group revenue and is tied to US consumer credit and mortgage activity. A slowdown in US lending, a weaker labor market, or reduced mortgage originations would directly cut the volume of reports and scores Experian sells.
US political pressure on consumer lending, including proposals to cap credit card interest rates and continued scrutiny of data brokers and credit bureaus, could restrict how Experian collects, prices, or uses consumer data.
Experian reports in US dollars but earns significant revenue in British pounds, Brazilian real, and other currencies. Swings in the dollar can make reported growth look better or worse than the underlying business.
Experian has been making frequent bolt-on acquisitions (idwall, KYC360, ClearSale, and others) to add fraud and identity capabilities. Integrating several deals at once adds execution risk even though none of them is individually large.
Experian is going through a chair transition, with Adam Crozier succeeding long-serving chair Mike Rogers in July 2026. Governance transitions like this rarely move the stock on their own, but they add a small amount of uncertainty at the board level.
- Recent events
- 2026-07-16: Experian's Q1 FY27 trading update showed total revenue up 10% at actual rates, 7% organically, in the middle of its 6%-8% full-year guidance range. North America B2B grew 11% organically while North America Consumer Services fell 2% as a data-breach response contract wound down. Full-year guidance was left unchanged.
2026-07-01: Experian's Brazilian unit, Serasa, completed its acquisition of idwall, a digital-identity and fraud-prevention specialist, for about BRL 400 million (roughly $71 million).
2026-05-20: Experian reported record FY26 full-year results (year ended March 31, 2026): revenue of $8,425 million, up 13% at actual rates and 8% organically; Benchmark EBIT margin of 28.6%, up 50-60 basis points; Benchmark EPS up 15%. The board raised the full-year dividend 11% to 69.25 US cents and announced a new $1 billion buyback through June 2027, after buying back $725 million of stock in FY26. Shares still fell on the day on continued AI-disruption worries despite the beat.
2026-04-21: Experian named Adam Crozier, former CEO of ITV and Royal Mail, as chair-designate, to succeed Mike Rogers as chair once the July 2026 annual meeting concluded.
2026-01-26: Experian shares extended a slide to a two-year low, down about 13% for the month, after analysts (including Panmure Liberum) pointed to fears that AI will disrupt the credit-bureau business, alongside a weak US dollar and FICO's move to sell mortgage credit scores directly to lenders.
2025-11-12: Experian reported H1 FY26 results (six months to September 30, 2025): total revenue up 12% at constant currency, 8% organically, with organic growth accelerating from 8% in Q1 to 9% in Q2. Benchmark EBIT grew 14% and margin rose 50 basis points. The board raised the interim dividend 10% and lifted full-year organic revenue guidance to the top of its prior range, around 8%.
2025-10-22: A US federal court denied Experian's motion to dismiss the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's January 2025 lawsuit, which alleges Experian ran "sham investigations" of consumer credit-report disputes in violation of the Fair Credit Reporting Act, and ordered Experian to answer the complaint. Litigation is ongoing, with a court ruling on Experian's affirmative defenses following in January 2026.
2025-10-02: FICO announced it will license its credit scores directly to mortgage resellers and lenders, letting them bypass bureaus like Experian for part of the mortgage credit-score fee. Experian responded by cutting the price of its own VantageScore 4.0 offering and offering it free for a limited time.