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ESElectric & gas utilities

Eversource Energy

No moatLow uncertainty

Updated

Price
$66.85
Fair value
fair value $74.00
Discount
9.7% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 2.82 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Oct 30 · · estimated

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In short

Thesis
The market prices Eversource for a lower FERC return and hard rate cases in Connecticut, and a fair CL&P decision in mid-2027 with steady earnings growth can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The Q3 2026 report, the 2027 guidance in February 2027 and the Connecticut rate decision in mid-2027 give dated tests.
Next test
(estimate): Q3 2026 results: guidance and debt reduction

About

Eversource Energy delivers electricity and natural gas in Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Its main subsidiaries are Connecticut Light and Power (CL&P), NSTAR Electric, Public Service Company of New Hampshire (PSNH), and the gas companies NSTAR Gas, Eastern Massachusetts Gas (EGMA) and Yankee Gas. It reports three main segments: electric transmission, electric distribution and natural gas distribution.

State regulators set its distribution rates, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) sets its transmission rates. Eversource sold its offshore wind projects in 2024 and its water business, Aquarion, on June 30, 2026. It plans to invest $26.5 billion from 2026 to 2030.

Thesis

The market prices Eversource for difficult regulators and for the cost of a large building plan. In March 2026, FERC cut the base return on equity for New England transmission owners from 10.57% to 9.57% and ordered refunds. Eversource expects this to lower its 2026 earnings by about $70 million, and it cut its 2026 guidance to $4.57 to $4.72 per share from $4.80 to $4.95. In Connecticut, CL&P filed its first rate case since 2017 in July 2026, and it asks for a large rate increase while customers and state officials focus on high energy bills.

Eversource also raised its offshore wind contingent liability in Q2 2026, and it expects to issue $0.8 billion to $1.1 billion of new shares from 2026 to 2030. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Connecticut regulators must give CL&P a fair rate decision, expected in mid-2027. Eversource must grow earnings per share at 5% to 7% a year from the $4.65 base of 2026, as it plans.

It must keep its credit ratings stable while it uses the $1.7 billion from the Aquarion sale to cut debt. The Q3 2026 report, estimated for about October 30, 2026, gives the next test. The 2027 guidance in February 2027 and the CL&P decision in mid-2027 are the main tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.

The main reason it may not close is another unfavorable decision in Connecticut.

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 30, 2026 · est.Pending
    Q3 2026 results: guidance and debt reductionEversource keeps its 2026 guidance of $4.57 to $4.72 per share and shows lower debt after the Aquarion sale passes; a lower guidance or a new large charge fails.
  2. Feb 2027 · est.Pending
    2027 guidance and financing plan2027 guidance within the 5% to 7% growth path from the $4.65 base and no increase in the planned new shares pass; lower growth or more new shares fail.
  3. Q2 2027 · est.Pending
    CL&P rate case decision in ConnecticutA decision that gives CL&P a large part of the $451 million it asks for, with a return on equity near the national average, passes; a low return or large rejected costs fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash
$1.8B
Debt
$29.8B
Net debt
$28.0B
Credit line
$2.2B
undrawn, to October 2030

Cash against debt

Cash$1.8B
Debt$29.8B

debt covered by cashnet debt $28.0B

When the debt is due

12 months$2.9B
Later$26.9B

Eversource funds its building plan with long-term debt at the parent and at each utility, commercial paper and new shares. At June 30, 2026, long-term debt was $29.11 billion, of which $2.50 billion was due within 12 months, and total debt was about $29.8 billion.

Risks

  • Regulators set most of Eversource's revenue. The CL&P rate case asks for $451 million more base revenue, and the decision is expected in mid-2027. Eversource says that it is working with state officials on concerns about the cost of energy. A low allowed return or rejected costs would reduce earnings growth.
  • The FERC order of March 2026 cut the transmission return on equity and requires refunds. Eversource is challenging the retroactive refunds. A further cut or larger refunds would lower earnings.
  • The $26.5 billion building plan from 2026 to 2030 needs new debt and $0.8 billion to $1.1 billion of new shares. Higher interest rates or a lower share price make this funding more costly.
  • Eversource still owes payments to Global Infrastructure Partners under the 2024 sale of its offshore wind projects. It raised this liability in Q2 2026, and the liability was $409 million at June 30, 2026. A further increase would lead to new charges.

Recent events

  • July 30, 2026Eversource reported Q2 2026 results. GAAP earnings were $0.14 per share, after a $0.30 charge on the Aquarion sale and a $0.43 charge from a higher offshore wind contingent liability. Non-GAAP recurring earnings were $0.87 per share. Eversource kept its 2026 guidance of $4.57 to $4.72 per share and its long-term growth target of 5% to 7% a year through 2030. ISO New England made a preliminary selection of the incumbent utilities, including Eversource, to build new transmission from northern Maine to southern New England.
  • July 14, 2026CL&P filed a rate case in Connecticut, its first since 2017. It asks for $451 million more base revenue, without storm costs, with a return on equity of 10.25% and about 54% equity. It proposes a four-year rate plan, and Eversource expects a decision in mid-2027.
  • July 6, 2026Moody's changed the outlook for Eversource parent and NSTAR Electric to stable from negative, because the Aquarion sale closed and Connecticut regulators approved storm costs. In their final decision of July 29, 2026, Connecticut regulators found most of CL&P's storm costs prudent and approved them for securitization.
Show 2 older events
  • June 30, 2026Eversource completed the sale of Aquarion Water Company to the Aquarion Water Authority for $2.4 billion in cash. Eversource will use the adjusted net equity proceeds of about $1.7 billion to reduce debt.
  • March 19, 2026FERC reduced the base return on equity for New England transmission owners from 10.57% to 9.57%. Eversource said that it will take legal action against retroactive refunds. It cut its 2026 guidance to $4.57 to $4.72 per share, which also removes Aquarion earnings after the sale.

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