- Price
- $54.30
- Fair value
- $70.00
- Discount
- 22.4%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 1.93
- Moat
- None
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-27
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- EQT
- Sector
- Natural gas production & midstream
- About
- EQT is a large producer of natural gas in the United States. It produces gas and natural gas liquids from the Marcellus and Utica shales in Appalachia, mainly in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. Since it bought Equitrans Midstream in 2024, it also owns gathering, transmission and storage pipelines. In January 2026, it used an option to raise its interest in the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP Mainline) to about 53%. It sold 634 Bcfe of gas and liquids in Q2 2026. Its results move mainly with the price of natural gas and with the local Appalachian price (basis), which is usually lower than the national Henry Hub price. EQT also signs long-term supply deals with power plants and LNG buyers.
- Thesis
- The market prices EQT for lower natural gas prices and a wide gap between local Appalachian prices and national prices. EQT's average realized price fell to $2.65 per Mcfe in Q2 2026 from $5.08 in Q1, when a cold winter lifted prices. Free cash flow attributable to EQT fell to $330 million in Q2 from a record $1,832 million in Q1. EQT expects a local price differential of $(0.75) to $(0.65) per Mcf in Q3 2026, and it cut output when prices were low. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Natural gas prices must recover as new LNG export plants and new power plants increase demand. EQT must finish MVP Southgate by the end of 2026 and start its supply deals with power plants such as the CPV Shay Energy Center, which pay prices linked to power prices. EQT must keep its operating costs near $1.05 to $1.20 per Mcfe and bring debt to its $5 billion target. The Q3 2026 report on October 27, 2026 gives the first test. The 2027 guidance in February 2027 shows the production and cost plan for the next year. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a long period of low gas prices, which EQT cannot control.
- Risks
- Results depend on the price of natural gas and on the local Appalachian price. The average realized price fell from $5.08 per Mcfe in Q1 2026 to $2.65 in Q2 2026. A long period of low prices reduces cash flow quickly.
Pipeline capacity out of Appalachia is limited. If new pipelines such as MVP Southgate are late, or local demand grows slower than supply, the local price differential can widen further.
Much of the expected growth in demand comes from new gas power plants, data centers and LNG export plants. If these projects are delayed or cancelled, demand for EQT's gas grows less than expected.
Gas production and pipelines need state and federal permits. Changes in environmental rules or legal challenges to pipelines can delay projects and add costs.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $113M
Debt: $5.7B
Net debt: $5.5B
Debt due within 12 months: $115M
Last debt due: 2048
Ratings: Moody's Baa3 (positive outlook), S&P BBB- (stable outlook), Fitch BBB (stable outlook)
EQT funds itself mainly with senior notes, and it has a $3.5 billion revolving credit facility, of which $52 million was drawn at June 30, 2026. Total liquidity, without the separate facility of its Eureka Midstream subsidiary, was about $3.6 billion. EQT cut total debt from $7.8 billion at December 31, 2025, to $5.7 billion at June 30, 2026, with a tender offer for notes due 2027 to 2031 and strong free cash flow in Q1 2026. Net debt was $5.54 billion. Its long-term debt target is a maximum of $5 billion. After the quarter, EQT repaid its $115 million of 7.75% debentures due in 2026. Its notes mature from 2027 to 2048. In October 2026, EQT started a commercial paper program of up to $3.5 billion, backed by the revolving credit facility. Its credit ratings are Baa3 with a positive outlook at Moody's, BBB- at S&P and BBB at Fitch.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 27, 2026: Q3 2026 results: prices and free cash flow. Pending. Watch: Sales volume within the 570 to 620 Bcfe guidance, a price differential near the $(0.75) to $(0.65) guidance and positive free cash flow pass; a wider differential or more output cuts fail.
Dec 2026 (estimate): MVP Southgate in service. Pending. Watch: MVP Southgate finishes construction by the end of 2026, as EQT expects, passes; a delay into late 2027 or later fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): 2027 guidance: production, costs and debt. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with operating costs near those of 2026 and debt at or below the $5 billion target passes; higher costs or higher debt fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-13: EQT said that it expects a total gain on derivatives of $100 million for Q3 2026, and net cash settlements received on derivatives of $70 million.
2026-10-07: EQT started a commercial paper program of up to $3.5 billion for general corporate purposes. Its revolving credit facility serves as a backstop for the program. EQT had not issued any notes under it on that day. EQT also said that it will report Q3 2026 results after the market closes on October 27, 2026.
2026-07-21: EQT reported Q2 2026 results. Sales volume was 634 Bcfe, above guidance. The average realized price was $2.65 per Mcfe, and net income attributable to EQT was $211 million. Free cash flow attributable to EQT was $330 million. EQT raised its 2026 production guidance by about 90 Bcfe and lowered its capital spending guidance by $25 million. It signed a 10-year deal to supply 325,000 Dth per day of gas to the CPV Shay Energy Center in West Virginia at prices linked to PJM power prices.
2026-04-21: EQT reported Q1 2026 results. Its average realized price was $5.08 per Mcfe, and it generated record free cash flow attributable to EQT of $1,832 million. Total debt fell to $6.0 billion. Fitch raised EQT's rating to BBB.
2026-03-24: EQT raised its tender offer for senior notes due 2027 to 2031 to a purchase price of up to $1.4 billion, after holders tendered more notes than the first cap allowed.