EIX changes

Pick any two versions below to diff them.

FromTo

View the full Oct 16, 2026 version

Price: $55.65
Fair value: $81.00
Discount: 31.3%
Uncertainty: Medium
LSEG rating: 3.24
Moat: Narrow
Next earnings: 2026-10-30
Next earnings is estimate: Yes
Company name: Edison International
Sector: Utilities
About: Edison International is the parent of Southern California Edison (SCE), an electric utility that serves about 15 million people through 5 million customer accounts in Southern, Central and Coastal California. SCE owns the wires: it transmits and distributes electricity, and it buys most of the power it delivers. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) sets about 85% of SCE's rates, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) sets the rates for transmission. Regulators let SCE earn a set return on its rate base, which is the value of the grid it builds. The rate base was about $50.8 billion in 2025, and Edison forecasts about 7% growth a year to 2030 from a capital program of $38 billion to $41 billion for 2026 to 2030. Edison has raised its dividend for 22 years in a row.
Thesis: Edison trades at a discount because investors cannot measure its liability for the January 2025 Eaton Fire, and California did not pass the law that would limit that liability. SCE says that its equipment was likely associated with the ignition, and Edison says that it cannot yet estimate its total losses. On August 30, 2026, the final version of Senate Bill 492 left out the shield against insurer lawsuits and the cap on withdrawals from the state Wildfire Fund that the governor had proposed, and the bill did not pass. The stock fell 23% on August 31, 2026. For the gap to close, three things must happen. First, the Eaton Fire claims must settle at a cost that the Wildfire Fund and customer-funded insurance can cover, as the voluntary compensation program and the first trial show. Second, California must pass wildfire reform that limits utility liability and refills the Wildfire Fund before it ends in 2028. Third, SCE must keep its investment-grade ratings and grow core EPS 5% to 7% a year without new shares. The tests come in order: Q3 2026 results, expected at the end of October 2026, the claim deadline of the compensation program on November 30, 2026, the first Eaton Fire jury trial in January 2027, and the 2027 legislative session with a new governor. If reform passes in 2027, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. The main risk is a large Eaton Fire verdict or a new fire caused by SCE equipment before reform passes.
Risks: The Eaton Fire of January 2025 killed 19 people and destroyed about 6,000 homes. At July 23, 2026, SCE knew of about 2,000 lawsuits with about 32,000 individual plaintiffs. Edison says that more material losses are probable, but it cannot estimate them. The first jury trial is set for January 2027. Fines and penalties, if any, cannot be recovered from insurance, the Wildfire Fund or rates. California law sets how much wildfire cost a utility must pay. The legislature did not pass reform in 2026, the state Wildfire Fund ends in 2028, and no law refills it. If the CPUC finds that SCE did not act prudently, SCE must repay the fund up to about $4.3 billion for the Eaton Fire. A new wildfire caused by SCE equipment can bring large new claims. California fires grow larger and more frequent, and the risk is highest in the fall wind season. Edison's ratings are at the lowest investment-grade level, as the CEO said on September 21, 2026. Edison says that the absence of credit-supportive wildfire laws can lead to a downgrade. A downgrade raises the cost of debt and can require SCE to post collateral if a rating falls below investment grade. Higher interest rates raise the cost of the large debt load and lower the value of a regulated return. Customer bills are high, so regulators can push back on new capital spending or on the return on equity.
Balance sheet: Cash: $242M Debt: $42.4B Net debt: $42.2B Interest cover: 2.1× Undrawn credit line: $3.9B, to May 2030 Debt due within 12 months: $5.3B At June 30, 2026, Edison had $242 million of cash and $42.4 billion of debt: $1.5 billion of short-term debt, $3.8 billion of long-term debt due within one year and $37.1 billion of other long-term debt. The debt includes about $3.0 billion of securitization bonds that customers repay through a fixed charge. Most debt is at SCE, and the parent holds the rest. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first half of 2026, which is low but normal for a regulated utility. SCE had about $2.6 billion available on its $3.4 billion credit facility, and the parent had $1.3 billion available on its $1.5 billion facility. Both facilities now run to May 2030. Edison's consolidated debt to total capitalization ratio was 0.66 to 1, against a covenant limit of 0.70 to 1. SCE also holds $378 million of restricted cash from customer-funded wildfire self-insurance. Edison expects to recover more than $11 billion of past costs by the end of 2027, which helps its credit metrics. Its financing plan for 2026 to 2030 needs no new shares. As of 2026-06-30.
Checkpoints: Oct 30, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: Eaton Fire losses and guidance. Pending. Watch: Core EPS guidance of $5.90 to $6.20 kept and no large new Eaton Fire charge pass; a cut to guidance, a plan to sell new shares or a large new loss estimate fails. Nov 30, 2026: Eaton Fire compensation program: claim deadline. Pending. Watch: Most eligible claimants settle through the program at costs inside the self-insurance and Wildfire Fund coverage passes; most claims staying in court fails. Jan 2027: First Eaton Fire jury trial. Pending. Watch: A verdict or settlements near the program's values pass; a large verdict that raises the expected total cost far above the Wildfire Fund coverage fails. 2027 (estimate): California wildfire reform in the 2027 legislative session. Pending. Watch: A law that limits utility liability or refills the Wildfire Fund before it ends in 2028 passes; no law, or a downgrade of SCE below investment grade, fails.
Recent events: 2026-09-17: SCE said that its Wildfire Recovery Compensation Program for the Eaton Fire had nearly 4,800 claims. It had made more than 2,700 offers, worth nearly $950 million, and paid more than $500 million. The deadline to submit a claim is November 30, 2026. 2026-08-31: The stock fell 23%, its largest one-day drop in more than 25 years, after the California legislature removed the utility liability limits from Senate Bill 492. Mizuho cut its rating to Neutral and its price target to $70 from $86, and Wells Fargo cut its rating to Underweight. The bill did not pass before the session ended. 2026-08-30: SCE said that the amended Senate Bill 492 does not deliver durable wildfire reform. It said that it will work with the next governor and legislature on a full solution. 2026-07-30: Edison reported Q2 2026 results. GAAP EPS was $1.39, and core EPS was $1.54, against $0.97 a year earlier. It kept its 2026 core EPS guidance of $5.90 to $6.20 and its target of 5% to 7% core EPS growth a year from 2025 to 2030, with no new equity in its financing plan. 2026-07-03: Aaron Moss, the CFO of SCE, became CFO of Edison International. He replaced Maria Rigatti, who retired on September 1, 2026. 2026-04-30: Edison International agreed to sell $500 million of 5.00% senior notes due 2028. 2026-04-28: Edison reported Q1 2026 results. GAAP EPS was $1.38, and core EPS was $1.42. It kept its 2026 core EPS guidance of $5.90 to $6.20.