- Price
- $161.25
- Fair value
- $190.00
- Discount
- 15.1%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 2.00
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-20
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Equifax
- Sector
- Credit data & analytics
- About
- Equifax is a global data, analytics and technology company based in Atlanta. It has about 15,000 employees and operates or has investments in 24 countries. It has three segments. Workforce Solutions sells employment and income verification from its database of payroll records, called The Work Number, and employer services. U.S. Information Solutions (USIS) is the US consumer credit bureau. International runs credit bureaus in countries such as Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom. Revenue was $1.70 billion in Q2 2026. Mortgage lenders are large customers of both Workforce Solutions and USIS, so mortgage volumes affect results.
- Thesis
- The market prices Equifax for its dependence on a slow mortgage market and for lower margins in its most profitable segment. US mortgage revenue grew 25% in Q2 2026, but mortgage rates stayed high, and the company's growth plan assumes more mortgage activity over time. The operating margin of Workforce Solutions fell to 44.9% in Q2 2026 from 46.4% a year earlier, and net income fell 4%. Debt rose to $5.5 billion at June 30, 2026, after share buybacks, and Equifax agreed to buy Círculo de Crédito in Mexico for an enterprise value of $750 million. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Equifax must reach its 2026 guidance of revenue of $6.71 to $6.78 billion and adjusted EPS of $8.39 to $8.69. Workforce Solutions must keep growing outside mortgage, with the government contracts signed in 2026 adding revenue from 2027. Free cash flow must rise, so that the company can pay for the Mexican purchase and keep its buybacks without much more debt. The Q3 2026 report on October 20, 2026 gives the next test. The 2027 guidance in February 2027 is the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a long period of high mortgage rates, which keeps mortgage volumes low.
- Risks
- Mortgage lenders are large customers. High mortgage rates keep mortgage volumes low, which slows the growth of both Workforce Solutions and USIS.
Workforce Solutions has the highest margins in the company. Its operating margin fell to 44.9% in Q2 2026 from 46.4%, and further pressure on its pricing or data would hurt profit.
Debt rose to $5.5 billion at June 30, 2026, and the Círculo de Crédito purchase will add more. Higher debt leaves less room for buybacks if results are weak.
International revenue is exposed to exchange rates and to the economies of Latin America, Canada, Europe and Asia Pacific.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $170M
Debt: $5.5B
Net debt: $5.3B
Undrawn credit line: $600M
Debt due within 12 months: $1.4B
Equifax funds its operations with senior notes and commercial paper, which its revolving credit facility backs. At June 30, 2026, total debt was $5.49 billion. This includes $1.41 billion due within one year, mostly $1.40 billion of commercial paper. Cash was $170 million. The undrawn credit is the amount still available under the $2.0 billion revolving facility after the commercial paper it supports. In July 2026, Equifax sold $1.0 billion of senior notes due 2029 and 2033 and used the money to repay commercial paper, which moved short-term debt to longer terms. The purchase of Círculo de Crédito, expected to close in Q4 2026, will add about $750 million of enterprise value.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 20, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: mortgage and Workforce Solutions. Pending. Watch: Revenue of $1.68 to $1.71 billion, adjusted EPS of $2.15 to $2.25 and stable Workforce Solutions margins pass; results below the guidance or lower 2026 guidance fail.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2026 adjusted EPS inside the $8.39 to $8.69 guidance and 2027 guidance for growth in revenue and free cash flow pass; flat 2027 guidance or higher debt without growth fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-07-29: Equifax sold $500 million of 5.000% senior notes due 2029 and $500 million of 5.650% senior notes due 2033. It used the money to repay commercial paper.
2026-07-21: Equifax reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 11% to $1.70 billion and adjusted EPS rose 13% to $2.25. Workforce Solutions revenue rose 7% and USIS revenue rose 17%. Equifax signed an agreement to buy Círculo de Crédito, a Mexican credit bureau, for an enterprise value of $750 million, with closing expected in Q4 2026. It doubled its target for AI-driven cost savings from 2026 to 2028 to $150 million and returned $366 million to shareholders.
2026-04-24: Equifax increased its revolving credit facility to $2.0 billion from $1.5 billion and extended the term of most of the commitments. It also increased its commercial paper program to $2.0 billion.