- Price
- $111.19
- Fair value
- $125.00
- Discount
- 11.0%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 1.86
- Moat
- Wide
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-17
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Disney
- Sector
- Media & entertainment
- About
- Disney is a media and entertainment company with three segments. Entertainment makes films and TV shows, sells them to cinemas and other buyers, and runs the Disney+ and Hulu streaming services and the ABC and cable TV networks. Sports runs ESPN on TV and in its own streaming app, and it earns fees from TV distributors and subscribers and money from advertising. Experiences runs theme parks and resorts in the US, Europe and Asia, a cruise line, and the sale of products with Disney characters. In the nine months to June 27, 2026, Experiences gave about 61% of segment operating income, Entertainment about 28% and Sports about 12%. Disney uses the same characters and stories in all three segments, so a successful film also sells park visits, toys and streaming subscriptions. Josh D'Amaro became CEO in March 2026.
- Thesis
- Disney trades at a discount because the market expects its TV networks and ESPN to lose profit as people stop paying for cable, and it doubts that streaming and parks can grow fast enough to replace that profit. In the quarter to June 27, 2026, Sports operating income fell 17% because sports rights cost more, while Entertainment streaming made a 13% margin. Streaming advertising grew only 3%, and two large films earned less than Disney expected. The parks carry most of the profit, so investors also fear that weaker consumer spending, a slowdown in Asia and higher ticket prices can cut park visits. For the gap to close, Disney must meet its fiscal 2026 target of about 12% adjusted EPS growth without the extra 53rd week, confirm double-digit adjusted EPS growth for fiscal 2027, keep a double-digit streaming margin, and show that Sports profit stops falling as ESPN moves to streaming. Experiences must also keep growing guests and spending per guest. The first test is the fiscal 2026 report on November 17, 2026, with the fiscal 2027 outlook. The next tests are the first quarter of fiscal 2027, expected in February 2027, with the new segment layout, and the new Disney+ membership features planned for spring 2027. If these hold, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main risk is that cable decline and sports costs grow faster than streaming profit.
- Risks
- Fewer homes pay for cable TV, and this lowers fees and advertising for ESPN, ABC and the cable networks. Sports rights cost more each year. In the quarter to June 27, 2026, Sports programming and production costs rose 10% and Sports operating income fell 17%. If ESPN streaming does not grow fast enough, Sports profit can keep falling.
Experiences gave about 61% of segment operating income in the nine months to June 27, 2026. Park visits and cruise bookings depend on consumer spending. Disney expected softness at its Asia parks to continue in fiscal Q4 2026, and foreign visits to its US parks were weak. In October 2026, Walt Disney World raised annual pass prices and set higher ticket prices for 2027, and higher prices can lower visits.
Streaming profit depends on price increases, lower churn and advertising. Streaming advertising grew only 3% in fiscal Q3 2026 because of more competition for ad budgets. If subscribers do not accept more price increases, the streaming margin can stop growing.
Films are a hit-driven business. The live-action Moana and The Mandalorian and Grogu earned less than Disney expected in 2026. Weak films lower studio profit and also lower sales of products, park attractions and streaming that use the same characters.
The CEO changed in March 2026, and Disney cut jobs in three rounds in 2026. A new CEO can change the strategy or the capital plan. Disney also faces antitrust class actions about how it sells its TV networks to distributors.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $5.2B
Debt: $46.0B
Net debt: $40.9B
Interest cover: 8.4×
Undrawn credit line: $12.3B
Debt due within 12 months: $8.6B
Ratings: Moody's A2 (stable outlook), S&P A (stable outlook)
Disney had $46.0 billion of borrowings at June 27, 2026, up from $42.0 billion at September 27, 2025. This includes $4.4 billion of commercial paper and $1.1 billion of borrowings of the Asia theme parks. In February 2026, Disney borrowed $3.5 billion of fixed-rate notes at 3.75% to 4.63% and $0.5 billion of floating-rate notes. In October 2025, it borrowed $1.1 billion at 3.74% to pay for the Disney Destiny cruise ship. The unused bank lines of $12.25 billion support the commercial paper: $5.25 billion ends in February 2027, $3.0 billion in March 2029 and $4.0 billion in February 2031. The only covenant asks for EBITDA of at least three times interest, and Disney met it by a significant margin at June 27, 2026. Interest cover is income before taxes plus net interest, divided by gross interest expense of $1.38 billion, for the nine months to June 27, 2026. Fiscal 2026 cash from operations should be at least $19 billion and capital spending about $9 billion. Disney targets at least $9 billion of buybacks in fiscal 2026, and it plans to add the $1.2 billion from the A+E sale to buybacks.
As of 2026-06-27.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 17, 2026: Fiscal 2026 results and fiscal 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: About 12% adjusted EPS growth without the 53rd week and a fiscal 2027 outlook with double-digit adjusted EPS growth pass; a lower fiscal 2027 outlook or a further fall in Sports profit fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Fiscal Q1 2027 results: parks and streaming margin. Pending. Watch: Growth in Experiences guests and operating income with a double-digit streaming margin passes; fewer park guests or a lower streaming margin fails.
Q2 2027 (estimate): Disney+ membership features launch. Pending. Watch: A launch in spring 2027 as planned, followed by lower churn, passes; a delay or no change in churn fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-12: Disney said it will report fiscal 2026 full-year and fourth-quarter results before the market opens on November 17, 2026.
2026-09-29: CNBC reported that Disney is laying off about 300 employees, mainly in human resources and technology. This is the third round of job cuts since Josh D'Amaro became CEO in March 2026.
2026-08-05: Disney reported fiscal Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $25.2 billion, up 7%. Adjusted EPS was $2.06, up from $1.61. Experiences operating income rose 20% and Entertainment operating income rose 64%, but Sports operating income fell 17%. Disney kept its fiscal 2026 target of about 12% adjusted EPS growth without the 53rd week and raised its fiscal 2026 buyback target to at least $9 billion. It said that the live-action Moana and The Mandalorian and Grogu earned less at the box office than it expected.
2026-08-05: In its 10-Q, Disney said it agreed in July 2026 to sell its 50% stake in A+E Global Media to an affiliate of Hearst for about $1.2 billion in cash. It recorded an $812 million impairment of the stake in the quarter. It plans to use the cash for buybacks, and it expected the sale to close by the end of fiscal 2026.
2026-08-05: Disney said it will move most of its Consumer Products business from Experiences to Entertainment from Q1 of fiscal 2027. It also said it is looking at cuts to labor and general costs.
2026-05-06: Disney reported fiscal Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $25.2 billion, up 7%. Adjusted EPS was $1.57, up from $1.45. It expected fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS growth of about 12% without the 53rd week and targeted at least $8 billion of buybacks.