Skip to content

CSGPReal estate data & marketplaces

CoStar Group

Narrow moatHigh uncertainty

Updated

Price
$32.00
Fair value
fair value $53.00
Discount
39.6% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 2.36 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Oct 27 ·

Loading your notes…

In short

Thesis
Investors doubt the payoff from Homes.com and fear AI search, and steady profit growth with a return of bookings growth can close the gap slowly through 2027 and 2028.
Gap
Slow. Profit, bookings and the effect of AI on its marketplaces need several quarters of results to prove out.
Next test
: Q3 2026 results: revenue, bookings and Residential profit

About

CoStar Group sells real estate information and runs online real estate marketplaces. It reports two segments. Commercial Real Estate includes the CoStar database and analytics, which brokers, owners and lenders buy by subscription, the LoopNet listing marketplace and other services such as Ten-X auctions; it had $481 million of revenue in Q2 2026. Residential Real Estate includes Apartments.com, where landlords pay to list rentals, and Homes.com, where agents pay for advertising, with $444 million of revenue in Q2 2026.

In August 2026, CoStar bought Zonda, a new-home data and marketplace company, for $800 million in cash. Most revenue is recurring subscription and listing fees. For years, CoStar spent heavily on Homes.com marketing to win home search traffic, and in 2026 it cut this spending to raise profit.

Thesis

The market prices CoStar at a discount because it doubts that the large spending on Homes.com will pay off, and it fears that AI search can weaken listing marketplaces and data subscriptions. Revenue growth is slowing: in July 2026, CoStar cut its 2026 revenue outlook to $3.715 billion to $3.755 billion from about $3.8 billion, and net new bookings of $69 million in Q2 were about 26% lower than a year earlier. The stock fell about 14% after that report, and the CFO left at the end of July 2026. Activist investors Third Point and D.E.

Shaw pushed for changes at the board and at Homes.com earlier in 2026. For the gap to close, CoStar must show that profit grows while revenue keeps growing at double digits. The checks are full-year adjusted EBITDA within the $780 million to $820 million outlook, a Residential segment that stays profitable after it turned positive in Q2 2026, net new bookings that grow again, and AI products such as Homes.com Ai and Apartments.com Ai that raise leads and keep customers. The first test is the Q3 2026 report on October 27, 2026, with guided revenue of $935 million to $945 million and adjusted EBITDA of $190 million to $210 million.

The full-year report and 2027 outlook in February 2027 are the next test. If profit and bookings both improve, the gap can close slowly over 2027 and 2028. The main risk is that AI tools from large technology companies take traffic from Homes.com and Apartments.com.

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 27, 2026Pending
    Q3 2026 results: revenue, bookings and Residential profitRevenue within the $935 million to $945 million guide, adjusted EBITDA of $190 million or more and a profitable Residential segment pass; revenue below the guide or bookings that fall again fail.
  2. Feb 2027 · est.Pending
    Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlookFull-year adjusted EBITDA within $780 million to $820 million and a 2027 outlook with double-digit revenue growth pass; a lower revenue outlook fails.
  3. Jul 2027 · est.Pending
    Q2 2027 results: bookings recoveryNet new bookings higher than the $69 million of Q2 2026 pass; bookings that keep falling fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash
$1.3B
Debt
$1.0B
Net cash
$266M
Credit line
$1.1B
undrawn, to May 2029

Cash against debt

Cash$1.3B
Debt$1.0B

debt covered by cash

When the debt is due

12 months$0.0M
Later$1.0B

The last debt is due in 2030.

CoStar has more cash than debt. Its only debt is $1.0 billion of 2.800% senior notes due July 15, 2030.

Risks

  • AI search tools can change how people search for homes and rentals, and how brokers get data. If large AI platforms send traffic around Homes.com and Apartments.com, the value of paid listings falls. CoStar launched its own AI tools in 2026, and their effect on revenue is not proven yet.
  • Revenue growth slows. CoStar cut its 2026 revenue outlook in July 2026, and Q2 net new bookings were about 26% lower than a year earlier. Management said the fall came from its own choices to improve efficiency, but lower bookings lead to slower revenue later.
  • Homes.com competes with larger home search sites, and the Residential segment lost money until Q2 2026. If spending cuts weaken its traffic, the past investment loses value. If CoStar raises spending again, profit falls.
  • Management changes. A new CFO started on July 31, 2026, a new President of Homes.com in September 2026, and activist investors pushed for board changes earlier in 2026. Changes in strategy can add cost and risk.
  • Commercial real estate weakness, such as high office vacancy, can slow subscriptions from brokers, owners and lenders.

Recent events

  • October 1, 2026CoStar said that it will report Q3 2026 results on October 27, 2026.
  • September 14, 2026CoStar named Felix Kusch, a European home search executive, as President of Homes.com.
  • August 21, 2026CoStar completed the purchase of Zonda, a provider of new-home data, homebuilder software and the NewHomeSource.com and Livabl marketplaces, for $800 million in cash.
Show 4 older events
  • July 29, 2026CoStar stock fell about 14% before the market opened after the Q2 report, because of the lower revenue outlook and lower bookings. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods downgraded the stock to Market Perform from Outperform and cut its price target to $29 from $41.
  • July 28, 2026CoStar reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $925 million, up 18%. Adjusted EBITDA was $184 million, up 116%, and adjusted EPS was $0.32. The Residential segment had positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time. Net new bookings were $69 million. CoStar cut its 2026 revenue outlook to $3.715 billion to $3.755 billion and kept its adjusted EBITDA outlook of $780 million to $820 million and its adjusted EPS outlook of $1.32 to $1.39.
  • July 13, 2026CoStar named Robin Rossmann, its Managing Director for Europe, as Chief Financial Officer from July 31, 2026. He replaced Christian Lown, who left the company.
  • May 29, 2026CoStar agreed to buy Zonda for $800 million in cash.

Similar companies

  • CSUConstellation SoftwareShares: AI disruption risk, New management
    Discount
    6.3%
    LSEG
    2.00
    Gap
    Slow
  • ROLRollinsShares: AI disruption risk, New management
    Discount
    26.6%
    LSEG
    2.75
    Gap
    Can close
  • ADBEAdobeShares: AI disruption risk, New management
    Discount
    26.8%
    LSEG
    2.77
    Gap
    Slow
  • CHKPCheck PointShares: New management, AI disruption risk
    Discount
    31.3%
    LSEG
    2.46
    Gap
    Can close
  • OMCOmnicomShares: AI disruption risk, New management
    Discount
    29.8%
    LSEG
    2.47
    Gap
    Slow

Read it all? Star CSGP or pass, then go on to the next one.