- Price
- $14.79
- Fair value
- $25.80
- Discount
- 42.7%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 2.19
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-04
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Coupang
- Sector
- E-commerce
- About
- Coupang is the largest online retailer in South Korea. It is a US company, based in Seattle, but almost all of its sales come from Korea. It reports two segments. Product Commerce sells goods online, mostly from its own inventory, and delivers them fast through its own network of fulfillment centers and drivers; it had 24.7 million active customers in Q2 2026. Developing Offerings includes Eats food delivery in Korea, Rocket Now delivery in Japan, Play streaming, fintech, retail in Taiwan and Farfetch, the luxury fashion platform. Coupang makes money mainly from the margin on goods it sells, from fees that third-party sellers pay, from advertising and from its paid WOW membership. It reports in US dollars, so a weaker Korean won lowers its reported revenue.
- Thesis
- The market prices Coupang at a discount because a data breach damaged its profits and its relations with the Korean government. In November 2025, Coupang found that a former employee had accessed customer accounts. It gave customers about $1.2 billion of purchase vouchers, which lowered revenue until mid-April 2026. In June 2026, Korea's data protection regulator announced fines of about $410 million, and Coupang must pay them while it appeals. Profit fell at the same time: Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $163 million, a 1.8% margin against 5.0% a year earlier, and management guided Q3 margins 3 to 4 points lower than a year earlier. It now expects full margin recovery only around mid-2027. Investors also fear more Korean regulation, and a weaker won lowers reported growth. For the gap to close, margins must recover toward the 5% adjusted EBITDA margin of 2025, constant-currency revenue growth must stay near 8% to 10%, active customers must keep growing, and no new large fine or rule must hit the business. The Q3 2026 report, expected in early November 2026, shows the low point in margins and the cost of the July 2026 warehouse fire. The Q4 report in February 2027 and the Q2 2027 report show whether the mid-2027 recovery is on track. If margins recover on time, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main risk is that the Korean government keeps acting against Coupang, which raises costs for years.
- Risks
- Korean regulation. After the November 2025 data breach, the data regulator announced about $410 million of fines in June 2026, and the Korea Fair Trade Commission has older cases against Coupang. More fines, rules on delivery work or platform rules can raise costs. A US securities class action about the breach is also pending.
Margins fell sharply. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 1.8% in Q2 2026, and management guided a lower margin again in Q3. It expects full recovery only around mid-2027. Trailing 12-month free cash flow fell to $105 million at June 30, 2026, from $784 million a year earlier.
Currency. Almost all sales are in Korean won, but Coupang reports in US dollars. In Q2 2026, revenue grew 10% at constant currency and only 4% in dollars.
The Korea Fair Trade Commission is investigating whether bundling Eats benefits with the WOW membership breaks the law. If it does, Coupang can get a fine and may have to sell the Eats benefit separately, which can make the membership less attractive.
Operations. The July 2026 fire at the Incheon fulfillment center adds losses from Q3 2026, and the full cost is not known yet. Coupang also keeps investing in loss-making units such as Taiwan, Coupang Eats and Farfetch.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $6.1B
Debt: $2.6B
Net cash: $3.5B
Debt due within 12 months: $2.0B
Coupang has more cash than debt. At June 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $6,110 million, and debt was $1,985 million of short-term borrowings and $618 million of long-term debt. Short-term borrowings rose from $960 million at December 31, 2025. Debt excludes $3,030 million of operating lease obligations for fulfillment centers and other sites. Accounts payable to suppliers were $6,328 million, so the business runs on supplier credit. Accrued expenses include the $410 million accrual for the Korean fines, which Coupang must pay while it appeals. Coupang had an operating loss in the first half of 2026, so interest cover does not apply. Coupang bought back $459 million of shares in Q2 2026, while trailing 12-month free cash flow fell to $105 million.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 4, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: margin low point and fire costs. Pending. Watch: Constant-currency revenue growth of 8% or more and a margin decline within the guided 3 to 4 points pass; a larger margin decline or slower growth fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: An adjusted EBITDA margin that rises from Q3 and a plan that keeps the mid-2027 recovery passes; a later recovery date fails.
Aug 2027 (estimate): Q2 2027 results: full margin recovery. Pending. Watch: An adjusted EBITDA margin near the 5% of Q2 2025 passes; a margin still near 2% fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-08-04: Coupang reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $8.9 billion, up 4% and up 10% at constant currency. Operating loss was $556 million, including about $410 million of Korean fines. Adjusted EBITDA was $163 million, a 1.8% margin. Coupang bought back 23.2 million shares for $459 million. It guided Q3 constant-currency revenue growth of 8% to 9% and an adjusted EBITDA margin 3 to 4 points lower than a year earlier, and said that it expects full margin recovery around mid-2027. The stock fell after the report.
2026-07-20: A fire in July 2026 damaged a leased Coupang fulfillment center in Incheon, Korea. Coupang said that the inventory and fixed assets at the site, with its obligation to sellers for their goods there, were worth about $246 million. It will claim insurance and record losses from Q3 2026, and it said that the fire did not materially affect Q3 revenue.
2026-07-14: Reuters reported that a South Korean court suspended the Korea Fair Trade Commission's designation of founder Bom Kim as the controlling person of Coupang.
2026-07-02: A US House report accused South Korea of targeting Coupang after the data breach. South Korea disputed the report.
2026-06-10: Korea's Personal Information Protection Commission announced a fine of about $278 million on Coupang Corp. for the data breach, and a separate fine of about $132 million over data from a third-party advertising program. Coupang said that it will appeal in the Seoul Administrative Court. The stock had its best day since late 2022, because the fine was smaller than investors feared.
2026-05-05: Coupang reported Q1 2026 results with a net loss of about $242 million, and it warned of slower growth. The stock fell about 7% after the report.