- Price
- $910.34 → $935.68(+2.8%)
- Discount
- -23.0% → -26.4%(−3.4 pts)
- Thesis
- Costco trades at a premium because its membership model produces unusually predictable, recurring profit. Renewal rates sit near record highs. Membership fee income alone covers roughly half of operating profit. This insulates results from swings in merchandise pricing. Sales also keep growing quickly, and the board keeps raising the dividend and paying special payouts. Investors are effectively paying for certainty, since the stock trades at a much higher earnings multiple than the broader market. For that premium to be earned, comparable-sales growth and renewal rates need to keep holding up as temporary boosts from gasoline prices and calendar timing fade. Tariff costs also need to stay manageable, since Costco says it is trying to absorb rather than pass on these costs. Fiscal fourth-quarter results, reported September 24, 2026, showed sales still growing at a double-digit pace and renewal rates still near records. In September 2026 sales, reported October 7, 2026, comparable sales without gasoline and currency effects grew 7.6%. That supports the premium for now. The next test comes with first-quarter fiscal 2027 results, expected around December 2026, once the temporary boost from gasoline prices has likely faded. If growth cools sharply once those boosts are gone, the premium could fade over the next two to four quarters.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-07: Costco reported September 2026 sales, the first month of fiscal 2027. Net sales for the five weeks ended October 4, 2026, were $30.02 billion, up 13.0%. Total company comparable sales grew 11.4%. Without the effects of gasoline prices and currency, total company comparable sales grew 7.6%, up from 5.4% in August, and US comparable sales grew 8.0%. The later Labor Day added a little more than 0.5 percentage points to September sales. Digitally-enabled sales grew 19.0%.
2026-09-24: Costco reported Q4 fiscal 2026 and full fiscal-year results. Fourth-quarter net sales were $93.9 billion, up 11.2%, and diluted EPS was $6.75 (including $0.15 from one-time IEEPA tariff refunds), up from $5.87 a year earlier. Full fiscal-year net sales were $297.2 billion, up 10.1%. Membership fee income was $1.85 billion, up 7.3%, with 150.4 million total cardholders and an 89.8% worldwide renewal rate.
2026-09-17: Costco expanded its partnership with DoorDash to a nationwide U.S. launch, letting members order same-day delivery from any domestic warehouse.
2026-09-02: Costco reported August 2026 sales and closed fiscal 2026: full fiscal year (52 weeks ended August 30, 2026) net sales were $297.3 billion, up 10.2%. Fourth-quarter (16 weeks) net sales were $93.9 billion, up 11.3%, and August net sales alone were $23.70 billion, up 9.9%, with digitally-enabled comparable sales up 17.9% for the month.
2026-05-28: Costco reported Q3 fiscal 2026 results: net sales of $69.15 billion, up 11.6%, and diluted earnings per share of $4.93, up from $4.28 a year earlier. Membership fee income was $1.37 billion, up 10.7%, with the US/Canada renewal rate at 92.2% and the worldwide rate at 89.7%.
2026-04-15: Costco's board raised the quarterly cash dividend from $1.30 to $1.47 per share ($5.88 annualized), the company's 22nd consecutive annual dividend increase, payable May 15, 2026.
2026-03-05: Costco reported Q2 fiscal 2026 results: net sales of $68.24 billion, up 9.1%, and diluted earnings per share of $4.58, up from $4.02. Membership fee income rose 13.6% to $1.35 billion, with 82.1 million paid members and an 89.7% worldwide renewal rate.
2026-01-16: Costco paid a special cash dividend of $12.00 per share, announced in December 2025, distributing about $5.3 billion to shareholders.
2025-12-11: Costco reported Q1 fiscal 2026 results: net sales of $65.98 billion, up 8.2%, and diluted earnings per share of $4.50, up from $4.04. Membership fee income rose 14% to $1.329 billion, and digitally-enabled comparable sales grew 20.5%.