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CNPElectric & gas utilities

CenterPoint Energy

Narrow moatLow uncertainty

Updated

Price
$40.55
Fair value
fair value $41.00
Discount
1.1% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 2.40 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Oct 27 ·

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In short

Thesis
The market prices CenterPoint for the cost of a large building plan and Houston storm risk, and timely cost recovery with new large-load connections over the next four to six quarters can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. Quarterly large-load connections and regulatory decisions on cost recovery give dated tests of the capital plan.
Next test
: Q3 2026 earnings: guidance and large-load growth

About

CenterPoint Energy is a utility holding company. Its largest business, Houston Electric, delivers electricity in the Houston area in Texas. CenterPoint also distributes natural gas, and it generates and delivers electricity in southern Indiana.

On October 1, 2026, it sold its Ohio gas business to National Fuel Gas for $2.62 billion, and it sold its Louisiana and Mississippi gas businesses earlier. The company plans $66.7 billion of capital investment from 2026 through 2035. Jason Wells is Chair, President and CEO.

Thesis

The market prices CenterPoint for the cost of its large capital plan and for storm risk in Houston. After Hurricane Beryl in July 2024, government agencies and regulators investigated how Houston Electric prepared for and responded to the storm. The 10-year capital plan of $66.7 billion needs new debt and new shares, and the company signed an equity distribution agreement in May 2026. Interest expense rose in the first half of 2026.

For the gap to close, three things must be true. Large-load customers in Houston must connect as planned: CenterPoint expects about 14 gigawatts of eligible load by 2031, which would raise its current peak demand of 21 gigawatts by more than 65%. Regulators must approve the recovery of its investment on time. Non-GAAP EPS must reach at least the midpoint of the $1.89 to $1.91 guidance for 2026 and keep growing.

The Q3 2026 report on October 27, 2026 is the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a major storm or a regulatory decision that limits cost recovery.

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 27, 2026Pending
    Q3 2026 earnings: guidance and large-load growth2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance kept at least at the midpoint of $1.89 to $1.91 and more large-load connections pass; a guidance cut or a lower capital plan fail.
  2. Sep 30, 2027Pending
    Ohio sale note repaidNational Fuel Gas repays the $1.20 billion seller note on time pass; a default or a delay fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash
$49M
Debt
$24.6B
Net debt
$24.6B
Interest cover
2.2×
times profit pays interest

Cash against debt

Cash$49M
Debt$24.6B

debt covered by cashnet debt $24.6B

When the debt is due

12 months$1.7B
Later$22.9B

The last debt is due in 2058.

CenterPoint funds its utilities with senior notes, securitization bonds, junior subordinated notes and new shares. At June 30, 2026, total debt was $24.64 billion: $21.16 billion of other long-term debt, $1.62 billion of other long-term debt due within a year and $1.87 billion of securitization bonds, which customers repay through dedicated charges.

Risks

  • Houston is exposed to hurricanes and other severe storms. After Hurricane Beryl in 2024, agencies investigated Houston Electric's preparation and response. A new major storm can cause large costs, penalties or damage to the company's reputation.
  • CenterPoint needs regulators to approve the recovery of its large capital plan in rates. A decision that delays or limits recovery lowers earnings growth.
  • The capital plan needs new debt and new shares. Interest expense rose in the first half of 2026, and higher interest rates or a lower share price raise the cost of the plan.
  • In September 2026, a third party obtained customer personal information from one of CenterPoint's systems. The investigation continues, and costs or regulatory actions can follow.

Recent events

  • October 1, 2026CenterPoint completed the sale of its Ohio gas business, Vectren Energy Delivery of Ohio, to National Fuel Gas for $2.62 billion. It received $1.42 billion in cash and a $1.20 billion promissory note that pays 6.50% interest and matures on September 30, 2027.
  • September 14, 2026CenterPoint said that an unauthorized third party obtained personal information about some of its customers through one of its external facing systems. Electric and gas service was not affected. The company does not expect a material financial impact and believes insurance will offset the costs.
  • September 9, 2026CenterPoint and its subsidiaries replaced their revolving credit facilities with four new facilities with total commitments of $4.6 billion, including a new $2.2 billion five-year facility at the parent company.
Show 2 older events
  • July 30, 2026CenterPoint agreed to sell $700 million of 6.400% fixed-to-fixed reset rate junior subordinated notes due 2058.
  • July 28, 2026CenterPoint reported Q2 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $0.40, up from $0.29, and reiterated 2026 guidance of at least the midpoint of $1.89 to $1.91. It raised its 10-year capital plan by $1.2 billion to $66.7 billion and said it submitted more than 17 gigawatts of large-load projects to ERCOT's Batch Zero process.

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