- Price
- $11.95
- Fair value
- $21.00
- Discount
- 43.1%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 2.24
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-03
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- CNH Industrial
- Sector
- Farm & construction machinery
- About
- CNH Industrial makes farm and construction machinery. Its main brands are Case IH and New Holland for farm equipment and CASE for construction equipment. It reports three segments: Agriculture, which gives most of its sales, Construction, and Financial Services. Agriculture sells tractors, combines, sprayers, seeding equipment and precision technology through independent dealers around the world. Financial Services (CNH Capital) lends money to farmers and dealers to buy the machines, and it had a managed portfolio of $28.0 billion at June 30, 2026. CNH makes money from machine sales, spare parts and services, and from interest on its loans. Its sales follow the farm cycle, which depends on crop prices, farm incomes and interest rates.
- Thesis
- The market prices CNH at a discount because the farm machinery cycle is at a low point, and investors are not sure when it turns. Low crop prices and high costs squeeze farm incomes, so farmers delay new machines. In Q2 2026, North American industry sales of large tractors fell 17%, and South American combine sales fell 29%. CNH's Agriculture adjusted EBIT fell to $170 million from $263 million, because of lower volumes, tariffs and higher costs. Loans more than 30 days past due rose to 4.4% of receivables, mainly in Brazil. S&P cut CNH's rating to BBB in April 2026, and Fitch moved its outlook to negative in May 2026. In October 2026, two new pressures came: the FTC and the USDA opened an inquiry into dealer practices in farm equipment, and higher USDA crop forecasts sent corn and soybean prices lower. For the gap to close, the farm cycle must turn in 2027: dealer inventories must stay low, industry tractor and combine volumes must stop falling, and CNH must deliver its 2026 outlook of about 5.0% to 5.5% Agriculture margin and $200 million to $400 million of industrial free cash flow. Past-due loans in Brazil must also stop rising, and the FTC inquiry must not lead to rules that limit dealer contracts. The Q3 2026 report, expected in early November 2026, and the 2027 outlook in February 2027 are the first tests. If demand recovers in 2027, the gap can close slowly over 2027 and 2028. The main risk is a longer low point in farm incomes.
- Risks
- Farm incomes stay low for longer. Low crop prices and high input costs make farmers delay new machines. In October 2026, higher USDA crop forecasts pushed corn and soybean prices lower again. A longer low point keeps volumes and margins down.
Credit risk in Financial Services. Loans more than 30 days past due rose to 4.4% of receivables at June 30, 2026, from 3.9% a year earlier, mainly because of stress among farmers in South America. Higher losses lower profit and can raise funding costs.
Regulation. The FTC and the USDA opened an inquiry into farm equipment dealer practices in October 2026. The findings can lead to new rules or legal actions that change how CNH works with dealers and sells parts and service.
Tariffs and trade. Tariffs raised CNH's costs in 2026 and lowered segment margins. The US cut some tariffs on equipment in June 2026, but trade rules can change quickly.
Credit ratings. S&P cut CNH to BBB in April 2026, and Fitch has a negative outlook on its BBB rating. A further cut raises the cost of the debt that funds Financial Services.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $1.3B
Debt: $4.3B
Net debt: $3.0B
Undrawn credit line: $6.3B
Ratings: S&P BBB (stable outlook), Fitch BBB (negative outlook)
Most of CNH's debt funds its Financial Services business, which lends to farmers and dealers. At June 30, 2026, total debt was $26.0 billion: $22.1 billion in Financial Services, backed by loans and leases to customers, and $4.3 billion in Industrial Activities. The figures show Industrial Activities only. Cash is unrestricted cash of Industrial Activities. Net debt of Industrial Activities was $2.5 billion, as CNH reports it after restricted cash, receivables from Iveco and other items, up from $2.0 billion at December 31, 2025, because free cash flow is weak in the first half of the year. Total available liquidity was $8.9 billion, including $6.3 billion of undrawn committed unsecured credit lines. CNH met all covenants of its €3.25 billion revolving credit facility, which matures on April 18, 2031. S&P cut the rating to BBB from BBB+ on April 9, 2026, with a stable outlook. Fitch affirmed BBB on May 13, 2026, and changed the outlook to negative. In September 2026, CNH's Canadian finance unit priced Cdn$550 million of new notes due 2028 and 2030.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 3, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: Agriculture margin and past-due loans. Pending. Watch: An Agriculture margin in line with the 5.0% to 5.5% full-year outlook and past-due loans at or below 4.4% pass; a cut to the 2026 outlook or higher past-due loans fail.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with higher Agriculture sales and margin passes; a 2027 outlook with lower sales again fails.
2027 (estimate): FTC and USDA farm equipment inquiry. Pending. Watch: An inquiry that ends without new rules or legal action against CNH's dealer model passes; new limits on dealer contracts or parts and service fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-09: CNH stock fell 5% after the USDA raised its corn and soybean production forecasts, which sent crop prices lower. Lower crop prices reduce farm incomes and demand for machines.
2026-10-07: The FTC and the USDA started a joint inquiry into business practices in the farm equipment market, such as restrictive dealer contracts, hidden financial penalties and barriers to repair. CNH stock fell 5.7% that day, Deere fell 5.0% and AGCO fell 5.9%.
2026-09-21: CNH Industrial Capital Canada priced Cdn$200 million of 4.00% notes due 2028 and Cdn$350 million of 4.40% notes due 2030.
2026-08-31: CNH and Bourgault Industries formed an alliance to sell co-branded Case IH and New Holland seeding equipment that Bourgault makes, through CNH dealers in North America, Australia and other markets.
2026-08-03: CNH reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $4.80 billion, up 2%. Adjusted net income fell to $161 million from $216 million, and diluted EPS was $0.11. Agriculture sales were flat at $3.3 billion, and Construction sales rose 12% to $866 million. CNH moved its 2026 outlook to the higher end of its ranges: Agriculture sales about flat, an Agriculture margin of 5.0% to 5.5%, adjusted EPS of $0.41 to $0.46 and industrial free cash flow of $200 million to $400 million.
2026-07-28: CNH said that Chief Technology Officer Jay Schroeder will retire on January 1, 2027, and Agriculture Chief Commercial Officer Stefano Pampalone will retire on September 1, 2026. Eric Shuman will become Chief Technology Officer.
2026-06-02: The US government lowered tariffs on some farm and industrial equipment. Citi called the change a small positive for Deere, AGCO and CNH.
2026-04-30: CNH reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $3.83 billion, flat from a year earlier, and adjusted net income fell to $21 million from $132 million. Industrial free cash flow was negative $589 million. CNH kept its 2026 outlook.