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Price: $21.77
Fair value: $36.00
Discount: 39.5%
Uncertainty: Medium
LSEG rating: 2.76
Moat: Narrow
Next earnings: 2026-10-22
Next earnings is estimate: No
Company name: Comcast
Sector: Cable, broadband & media
About: Comcast sells broadband, mobile phone service and pay TV in the US under the Xfinity brand, and services to businesses under Comcast Business. In Europe, it owns Sky. Through NBCUniversal, it also owns the NBC and Telemundo networks, the Peacock streaming service, Universal film and TV studios, and Universal theme parks. It reports five segments: Residential Connectivity & Platforms, Business Services Connectivity, Media, Studios and Theme Parks. In Q2 2026, it had 28.5 million US residential broadband customers and 10.2 million wireless lines, and Peacock had 48 million paid subscribers. Most of its profit comes from monthly broadband, video and mobile bills. On January 2, 2026, it spun off Versant, its group of cable TV networks, and gave shareholders 1 Versant share for every 25 Comcast shares. In June 2026, it announced a plan to spin off NBCUniversal and Sky in about one year.
Thesis: The market prices Comcast at a discount because it believes that the US broadband business, the main source of profit, is in a long decline. Fiber companies and fixed wireless take customers with low prices, and Comcast cut its own prices to keep customers. In Q2 2026, Comcast lost 167,000 US broadband customers, domestic broadband revenue fell 5.5%, and Residential Connectivity & Platforms EBITDA fell 8%. In September 2026, the CFO called fiber pricing irrational and said that broadband losses will not improve in Q3, and the stock fell 7% that day. In October 2026, SpaceX bought spectrum for a satellite mobile service, which adds a new threat to the wireless growth that offsets the broadband losses. For the gap to close, broadband customer losses must get smaller in 2027, broadband revenue must stop falling, wireless lines must keep growing near the 448,000 of Q2 2026, and the NBCUniversal and Sky spin-off must complete with an investment-grade balance sheet for both companies. The first evidence comes with the Q3 2026 report on October 22, 2026. The 2027 outlook in early 2027 and the spin-off, expected about mid-2027, are the next tests. If broadband stabilizes, the gap can close slowly over 2027 and 2028. The main risk is that fiber and wireless rivals keep taking customers, so that cash flow falls each year.
Risks: Broadband competition. Fiber companies and fixed wireless offer low prices, and KeyBanc said in September 2026 that only about 55% of Comcast's area faces fiber today, so the pressure can grow. Comcast must choose between more customer losses and lower prices. Domestic broadband revenue fell 5.5% in Q2 2026. Wireless growth offsets part of the broadband decline, but new rivals can slow it. In October 2026, SpaceX bought spectrum to offer mobile service from satellites. The NBCUniversal and Sky spin-off needs board approval, tax opinions, regulatory approvals and new financing. It can be delayed or changed, and it adds cost and management distraction. Buybacks are paused until it is done. Pay TV customers keep leaving: Comcast lost 280,000 US video customers in Q2 2026. Linear TV ratings fall, and sports rights such as the NBA raise costs. Theme Parks EBITDA fell 5.1% in Q2 2026. Comcast had about $90 billion of debt at June 30, 2026. A weaker cash flow lowers the room for dividends and investment after the split.
Balance sheet: Cash: $7.7B Debt: $90.4B Net debt: $82.7B Interest cover: 4.3× Undrawn credit line: $11.8B Debt due within 12 months: $6.1B Comcast funds itself mainly with unsecured notes, which Comcast, NBCUniversal and Comcast Cable guarantee together. Debt was $90.4 billion at June 30, 2026, of which $6.1 billion was due within one year. In the first half of 2026, Comcast repaid $7.3 billion of debt, including the early purchase of $4.1 billion of notes due from January 2027 to June 2029. It used cash that Versant paid at the spin-off and its own cash. Versant's $1.0 billion of notes left the balance sheet with the spin-off. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first half of 2026. At June 30, 2026, $11.8 billion was free under the revolving credit facility, after commercial paper and letters of credit. The credit facility has a debt-to-EBITDA covenant, which Comcast met. In July 2026, Comcast filed to exchange some existing notes for registered notes. Comcast plans an investment-grade balance sheet for both Comcast and NBCUniversal after the spin-off, but it has not said how it will split the debt. Free cash flow was $4.6 billion in Q2 2026. As of 2026-06-30.
Checkpoints: Oct 22, 2026: Q3 2026 results: broadband losses and wireless growth. Pending. Watch: US broadband losses below the 140,000 that KeyBanc expects, with wireless additions near 400,000 or more, pass; larger broadband losses or a faster fall in broadband revenue fail. Jan 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 plan. Pending. Watch: Smaller broadband losses in Q4 2026 and a clear debt plan for the two companies pass; a 2027 plan with lower connectivity EBITDA again fails. Q2 2027 (estimate): NBCUniversal and Sky spin-off. Pending. Watch: A tax-free spin-off on time, with investment-grade ratings for both companies and buybacks that start again, passes; a delay or a downgrade fails.
Recent events: 2026-10-08: SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management for its Starlink Mobile service. Investors feared more competition for Xfinity Mobile. Comcast stock hit a 13-year low of $20.75 during the day and closed up 1%. 2026-09-25: KeyBanc downgraded Comcast to Underweight with an $18 price target. It expects a loss of 140,000 broadband customers in Q3 2026, and losses of 558,000 in 2026 and 665,000 in 2027. It said that rivals' 1-gigabit offers at $30 to $40 a month win customers, and that the spin-off is not a catalyst. 2026-09-15: Comcast said that it will report Q3 2026 results on October 22, 2026, before a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET. 2026-09-09: At a Goldman Sachs conference, CFO Jason Armstrong called fiber broadband pricing irrational. He said that broadband customer losses will not improve in Q3 2026, but that the EBITDA trend will improve a little. The stock fell 7% that day. 2026-07-23: Comcast reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $29.9 billion, down 1.2%, and up 4.7% pro forma for Versant and the sale of Sky Germany. Adjusted EPS was $1.04, down 16.7%, and free cash flow was $4.6 billion. Comcast lost 167,000 US broadband customers, 34,000 fewer than a year earlier, and added 448,000 wireless lines, its best quarter. Peacock had its first profitable quarter, with $189 million of EBITDA. 2026-06-29: Comcast announced a plan to spin off NBCUniversal and Sky to shareholders, tax-free, in about one year. Mike Cavanagh will lead NBCUniversal, and former CFO Michael Angelakis will become CEO of Comcast. Comcast may keep up to 19.9% of NBCUniversal for up to one year. It paused share buybacks during the separation. 2026-05-31: Comcast completed the sale of its Sky operations in Germany for net pre-tax cash of $59 million and other variable payments.