- Price
- $120.85
- Fair value
- $140.00
- Discount
- 13.7%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 2.78
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-04
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- CF Industries
- Sector
- Nitrogen fertilizers
- About
- CF Industries makes ammonia and other nitrogen products, such as granular urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate and diesel exhaust fluid. Farmers use most of these products as fertilizer, and industry uses the rest. Its plants are mainly in the United States and Canada, and it also has operations in the United Kingdom. Natural gas is its main raw material. Gross ammonia production was 4.9 million tons in the first half of 2026. CF owns 40% of the Blue Point One joint venture with JERA and Mitsui, which is building a low-carbon ammonia plant in Modeste, Louisiana, and it consolidates the venture. CHS Inc. owns part of CF Industries Nitrogen and receives semi-annual distributions.
- Thesis
- The market prices CF Industries for nitrogen prices that are high now but can fall. Nitrogen prices rose in 2026 because the conflict with Iran cut Middle East supply, and first half 2026 net earnings were $1.34 billion. By the end of Q2 2026, prices had returned to pre-conflict levels as seasonal demand fell and buyers expected Middle East supply to return. The Yazoo City complex has been out of production since an incident in November 2025, and CF is also building the Blue Point complex, which needs large capital spending. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Nitrogen supply must stay tight into 2027, as management expects, so that prices stay above the cost of high-cost European producers. Yazoo City must restart in the first half of 2027, with a large part of the cost covered by insurance. Blue Point construction must stay on budget and on schedule. The Q3 2026 report on November 4, 2026 shows prices after the conflict peak. If these checks pass, the gap can close over a full price cycle. The main reason it may not close is a fall in nitrogen prices when Middle East exports recover or new capacity starts.
- Risks
- Earnings depend on global nitrogen prices, which CF cannot control. Prices returned to pre-conflict levels by the end of Q2 2026. More exports from the Middle East, China or new plants can lower prices and earnings quickly.
Natural gas is the main cost. The cost of gas in cost of sales was $4.01 per MMBtu in the first half of 2026, up from $3.52. Higher North American gas prices lower CF's cost advantage over other producers.
The Yazoo City complex has been out since November 2025, and CF expects it to restart in the first half of 2027. A later restart, or repair costs that insurance does not cover, lowers volumes and earnings.
CF expects capital spending of about $1.3 billion in 2026, partly for Blue Point. Cost overruns or delays at Blue Point lower the return on this investment.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $2.5B
Debt: $3.3B
Net debt: $770M
Interest cover: 22×
Undrawn credit line: $750M, to September 2030
Debt due within 12 months: $0.0M
Last debt due: 2044
CF Industries has only public senior notes and no bank debt drawn. Senior notes were $3.25 billion at June 30, 2026: $750 million due 2034, $1.0 billion due 2035, $750 million due 2043 and $750 million due 2044. Cash was $2.48 billion, of which $341 million belonged to the Blue Point One joint venture. The $750 million revolving credit facility, which matures on September 4, 2030, was undrawn. No debt is due before 2034. Interest cover is operating earnings divided by interest expense for the first half of 2026. Free cash flow was $1.82 billion for the 12 months to June 30, 2026. Management expects capital spending of about $1.3 billion in 2026, including about $600 million for the Blue Point One joint venture, which the partners fund by their ownership shares. About $1.48 billion remained under the share repurchase program at June 30, 2026.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 4, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: prices after the supply shock. Pending. Watch: Strong fall fill demand and a positive outlook for supply and demand into 2027 pass; a sharp fall in realized prices or a weaker outlook fail.
Q2 2027 (estimate): Yazoo City restarts. Pending. Watch: Yazoo City resumes production in the first half of 2027 with most of the cost covered by insurance pass; a delay past mid-2027 or a large uninsured cost fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-07: CF Industries declared a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share, payable on November 30, 2026. It confirmed that it will report Q3 2026 results after the market closes on November 4, 2026.
2026-08-05: CF Industries reported Q2 2026 results. Net earnings were $727 million, or $4.73 per share, and adjusted EBITDA was $1.19 billion. Prices were higher because the conflict with Iran cut supply, but sales volumes fell 15%, partly because of the Yazoo City outage. CF raised its quarterly dividend 20% to $0.60, and the Blue Point complex received the permits to start construction in August 2026.
2026-05-06: CF Industries reported Q1 2026 results. Net earnings were $615 million, or $3.98 per share, including a gain of about $170 million from a litigation settlement. Adjusted EBITDA was $983 million.
2026-05-05: CF Industries named Andrew Scribner as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective May 26, 2026. He joined from Kimberly-Clark, where he was Vice President, Global Controller.