- Price
- $300.40 → $298.07(−0.8%)
- Discount
- 0.1% → 0.9%(+0.8 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-06 → 2026-11-09
- Thesis
- Constellation runs the largest US nuclear fleet. But the market still doubts the pace of its biggest growth project. Grid operator PJM warned in 2026 that Crane Clean Energy Center, the restarted Three Mile Island reactor, might not connect to the grid until 2031. That is four years later than the original 2027 target. A delay this long would push back revenue from the 20-year power deal tied to that plant with Microsoft. New York's one-year pause on new large data centers adds a second worry. Other states could slow new long-term power contracts with data center customers too. For the gap to close, Crane's remaining federal and grid-connection steps need to clear on a credible schedule. Constellation also needs to keep signing new deals that show growth does not depend on Crane alone. These include its September 2026 agreements with Toyota and Amazon, its October 2026 agreement with Google, and its purchase of the RISEC gas plant from Shell. Federal reviewers advanced Crane's environmental review in late September 2026, a sign the restart process keeps moving. No firm reconnection date has been set yet. The next update comes at Q3 2026 earnings, expected around November 69, 2026, with further grid-connection milestones expected through 2027. Because full resolution of the Crane timeline could still take until 2031, part of this discount may persist for years even as near-term contract wins narrow it.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $697M
Debt: $24.7B
Net debt: $24.0B
Net debt / EBITDA: 2.9× (medium)
Debt due within 12 months: $5.6B
Ratings: Moody's Baa1, S&P BBB+ (stable outlook)
Constellation took on much more debt in 2026 to buy Calpine, and it must refinance large short-term borrowings or pay them down from cash flow. The investment-grade balance sheet still let it buy back $1.97 billion of shares in Q2 2026 and agree to buy RISEC. When the deal closed in January 2026, it assumed about $12.6 billion of Calpine debt. About $5 billion of this was project financing secured on single plants. It repaid $2.5 billion of Calpine term loans in January and $1.25 billion of Calpine secured notes in February 2026. At June 30, 2026, debt was long-term debt wasof $19.1 billion, long-term debt due within one year wasof $363 million and short-term borrowings wereof $5.2 billion. Cash was $697 millionThe amount due within 12 months is the last two parts. The leverage ratio is from Yahoo Finance data shows net debt of about 2.9 times trailing EBITDA. But that EBITDA includes Calpine for only part of the year, so the true ratio is lower. The revolving credit facility increased to $7.0 billion and runs to September 2030. The company also has a commercial paper program of up to $7.0 billion. After the deal closed, Moody's affirmed Baa1 and S&P affirmed BBB+ with a stable outlooktheir ratings after the deal closed. The nuclear fleet also carries $12.6 billion of asset retirement obligations, mostly for decommissioning. At June 30, 2026, $20.5 billion of nuclear decommissioning trust funds backed these obligations. The investment-grade balance sheet let Constellation buy back $1.97 billion of shares in Q2 2026 and agree to buy RISEC. But it must refinance the large short-term borrowings or pay them down from cash flow.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 69, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: guidance, Crane schedule, new contracts. Pending. Watch: Guidance of $11.50 to $12.50 per share kept or raised and a clear Crane schedule passes; a guidance cut or a later Crane date fails.
Mar 2027 (estimate): FERC decision on PJM reliability backstop procurement. Pending. Watch: A FERC ruling that lets the procurement go ahead with a fair cost split passes; a rejection or a further delay fails.
2027 (estimate): NRC approval and grid-connection date for Crane restart. Pending. Watch: NRC approval with a grid connection set well before 2031 passes; a connection date of 2031 or later fails.