- Price
- $254.02 → $300.40(+18.3%)
- Discount
- 15.5% → 0.1%(−15.4 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-09 → 2026-11-06
- Thesis
- Constellation runs the largest US nuclear fleet. But the market still doubts the pace of its biggest growth project. Grid operator PJM warned in 2026 that Crane Clean Energy Center, the restarted Three Mile Island reactor, might not connect to the grid until 2031. That is four years later than the original 2027 target. A delay this long would push back revenue from the 20-year power deal tied to that plant with Microsoft. New York's one-year pause on new large data centers adds a second worry. Other states could slow new long-term power contracts with data center customers too. For the gap to close, Crane's remaining federal and grid-connection steps need to clear on a credible schedule. Constellation also needs to keep signing new deals that show growth does not depend on Crane alone. These include its September 2026 agreements with Toyota and Amazon, its October 2026 agreement with Google, and its purchase of the RISEC gas plant from Shell. Federal reviewers advanced Crane's environmental review in late September 2026, a sign the restart process keeps moving. No firm reconnection date has been set yet. The next update comes at Q3 2026 earnings, expected around November 96, 2026, with further grid-connection milestones expected through 2027. Because full resolution of the Crane timeline could still take until 2031, part of this discount may persist for years even as near-term contract wins narrow it.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 96, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: guidance, Crane schedule, new contracts. Pending. Watch: Guidance of $11.50 to $12.50 per share kept or raised and a clear Crane schedule passes; a guidance cut or a later Crane date fails.
Mar 2027 (estimate): FERC decision on PJM reliability backstop procurement. Pending. Watch: A FERC ruling that lets the procurement go ahead with a fair cost split passes; a rejection or a further delay fails.
2027 (estimate): NRC approval and grid-connection date for Crane restart. Pending. Watch: NRC approval with a grid connection set well before 2031 passes; a connection date of 2031 or later fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-06: Constellation signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Google for 890 megawatts of nuclear power, valued at about $4.3 billion. The deal funds upgrades at 11 reactors in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Reports said the two companies also signed a 15-year supply deal for 2.7 gigawatts. Constellation shares rose more than 12% that day.
2026-09-30: FERC put a five-month hold on PJM's reliability backstop procurement filing. FERC said the proposed cost split needs a paper hearing first. Constellation shares fell about 4% to 5% that day.
2026-09-30: Constellation signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Amazon for 690 megawatts from the Calvert Cliffs plant in Maryland. The deal funds over $3 billion of investment, including a 190-megawatt uprate planned for 2030 to 2032.
2026-09-25: Federal reviewers advanced the environmental review needed to reauthorize the Crane Clean Energy Center, moving the restart process forward, though no firm reconnection date has been set yet.
2026-09-21: Constellation signed a 15-year renewable energy agreement with Toyota.
2026-09-10: Constellation agreed to buy RISEC, a 609-megawatt natural gas plant in Rhode Island, from Shell for about $715 million, or about $580 million after expected first-year tax benefits.
2026-08-06: Constellation reported Q2 2026 results. Adjusted operating earnings per share were $2.55, up from $1.91 a year earlier. The company raised its full-year 2026 guidance to $11.50-$12.50 per share.
2026-01-09: Constellation completed its $26.6 billion acquisition of Calpine, creating the largest electricity producer in the United States, with about 55 gigawatts of combined generating capacity.