- Price
- $54.96
- Fair value
- $77.00
- Discount
- 28.6%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 2.21
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-29
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Carrier Global
- Sector
- HVAC & climate equipment
- About
- Carrier makes heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment, controls and services for homes and commercial buildings. It reports by region: Climate Solutions Americas, Climate Solutions Europe, and Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa, plus Climate Solutions Transportation, which makes refrigeration units for containers and trucks. Products include residential and light commercial HVAC, heat pumps, and large chillers for commercial buildings and data centers. Carrier sells through dealers, distributors and directly to building owners and contractors, and it earns recurring revenue from service and parts. Net sales were $6.35 billion in Q2 2026. In 2026, it sold its Riello business and agreed to sell NORESCO, so that it focuses on climate products.
- Thesis
- The market fears lower profit margins and a weak residential HVAC cycle at Carrier. In Q2 2026, adjusted EPS fell 7% from a year earlier, and the adjusted operating margin fell 190 basis points to 17.2% because of higher input costs and an unfavorable business mix. In Q1 2026, organic sales fell 1%. So investors doubt that earnings will grow, although orders are strong. In Q2 2026, total orders rose about 40%, commercial HVAC orders about 65% and data center orders more than 300%. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Carrier must deliver its raised 2026 outlook of about $23 billion of sales, $3.5 billion of adjusted operating profit, $2.90 of adjusted EPS and $2 billion of free cash flow. The adjusted operating margin must stop falling, as price increases catch up with the input costs and the Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper. The record backlog in commercial HVAC and data centers must turn into sales in 2027. Residential and light commercial sales must keep growing, after rises of 9% and 10% in Q2 2026 in the Americas. The first evidence comes on October 29, 2026, with the Q3 report. The Q4 report and the 2027 guidance follow in early 2027. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters.
- Risks
- Margins fall. The adjusted operating margin fell 190 basis points to 17.2% in Q2 2026, and the Climate Solutions Americas margin fell 260 basis points, because input costs and the business mix were unfavorable. If prices do not catch up, earnings can fall further.
Residential HVAC demand depends on housing, interest rates and replacement cycles. Organic sales fell 1% in Q1 2026 before they grew 3% in Q2 2026. A new downturn would hit the largest segment.
Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper, updated on April 2, 2026, raise input costs. Carrier plans to offset them with supply chain changes, cost cuts and prices, but the effect can come with a delay.
Much of the order growth comes from data centers. If spending on AI data centers slows, orders and the backlog can fall.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $1.3B
Debt: $12.0B
Net debt: $10.6B
Interest cover: 5.6×
Debt due within 12 months: $1.6B
Ratings: S&P BBB+ (stable outlook), Moody's Baa1 (positive outlook)
Carrier funds itself with senior notes, commercial paper and a Japanese term loan. At June 30, 2026, debt was $11.95 billion: $1.64 billion of short-term borrowings and current long-term debt and $10.31 billion of long-term debt. Short-term borrowings included $685 million of commercial paper, and current debt included $900 million of 2.493% notes due February 27, 2027. Cash and cash equivalents were $1.34 billion, and net debt was $10.61 billion. A $2.5 billion revolving credit facility to December 2029 supports the commercial paper program. Interest cover is GAAP operating profit divided by net interest expense for the first half of 2026. The ratings are as of June 30, 2026. Carrier expects about $2 billion of free cash flow in 2026 and returned about $640 million to shareholders in Q2 2026 through dividends and buybacks.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: margins and orders. Pending. Watch: An adjusted operating margin that stops falling from a year earlier and the 2026 outlook of about $2.90 adjusted EPS kept pass; a further margin fall or a cut to the outlook fails.
Feb 10, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2026 adjusted EPS of about $2.90, free cash flow of about $2 billion and 2027 guidance for EPS growth pass; lower guidance fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-08: Carrier said it will report Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026, with a conference call at 7:30 a.m. ET.
2026-07-28: Carrier reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales grew 4% to $6.35 billion, and organic sales grew 3%. Orders rose about 40%, with commercial HVAC up about 65% and data centers up more than 300%. Adjusted EPS fell to $0.86 from $0.92, and the adjusted operating margin fell 190 basis points to 17.2%. Carrier raised its 2026 outlook to about $23 billion of sales and about $2.90 of adjusted EPS.
2026-07-24: Carrier elected Neil Barua, President and CEO of PTC, to its board of directors.
2026-07-01: Carrier completed the sale of its Riello business to Ariston Group. It had expected gross proceeds of about $430 million.
2026-05-18: Carrier agreed to sell its NORESCO energy services business to Opterra Energy Services, a subsidiary of LS Power.
2026-04-30: Carrier reported Q1 2026 results. Net sales grew 2%, organic sales fell 1% and adjusted EPS was $0.57. Total orders rose 11% and data center orders more than 500%. Carrier kept its full-year outlook.