- Price
- $36.46 → $36.98(+1.4%)
- Fair value
- — → $67.00
- Fair value source
- — → Management
- Moat
- — → Narrow
- Moat source
- — → AI estimate
- Thesis
- The market prices Brookfield Corporation below its fair value, which is management's own estimate of its worth, called "plan value," for three reasons. First, the structure is hard to value from the outside. A parent company owns most of a public asset manager, an insurance arm, and a group of operating businesses, and money moves between them. In Q2 2026, $45 billion of BAM's $77 billion of new capital came from Brookfield's own insurer. Second, official IFRS profit is much lower and choppier than the distributable earnings figure that management uses. Third, interest rates went up. The Fed raised rates in September 2026, and the 10-year Treasury yield went above 5%. About 45% of plan value is listed holdings at market prices, and these prices fall when long rates rise. Higher rates also slow the asset sales that pay carried interest, and they lower real estate values. Plan value has also come in below the path of the year before for three years in a row, and the target date moved from 2030 to 2031. For the gap to close, the merger with Brookfield Wealth Solutions must close by the end of 2026. Distributable earnings per share must keep growing near 12% a year or more. Realized carried interest must grow from about $0.5 billion a year toward about $1 billion a year by 2027 or 2028. Plan value must grow each year without another move of the target date, and long rates must stop rising. The evidence comes at BAM's Q3 report in early November 2026, Brookfield's Q3 report in mid-November 2026, the merger close, the change to US accounting rules on January 1, 2027, and the next Investor Day, around September 2027, which shows plan value at June 30, 2027. The gap can close partly over the next four to six quarters if rates stop rising. But the multi-layer structure stays after the merger, so part of the discount may never close.
- Valuation
- The fair value on this page for Brookfield is management's plan value. Brookfield gave it at its 2026 Investor Day on September 17, 2026: US$158 billion, or US$67 per share, at June 30, 2026. Plan value is a sum of the parts. Public holdings, such as BAM, count at their market value of US$31 per share. Private holdings count for US$44 per share. These are direct investments at US$5 and real estate at US$12, both from discounted cash flows. They also include carried interest at US$14, which is 10 times the target annual carry plus the carry not yet realized, and Wealth Solutions at US$13, which is 15 times its distributable earnings. Debt and preferred capital take away US$8 per share. Plan value is management's own estimate. It is not an analyst's value. Management uses its own multiples, and the market can value the same parts lower. The moat rating on this page for Brookfield is an AI estimate from October 8, 2026. It is not a value from management or an analyst. An AI research agent set it from the Q2 2026 interim report. The rating is Narrow. The moat comes mostly from BAM, the asset manager. At June 30, 2026, BAM had US$672.2 billion of fee-bearing capital. US$297.7 billion of it was in long-term private funds and US$293.5 billion was in perpetual strategies. Thus about 88% of the capital cannot leave quickly, and this gives switching costs. The long record and the large size of Brookfield in infrastructure, renewable power and real estate help it raise new funds. These are intangible assets. In Q2 2026, inflows to fee-bearing capital were US$68.1 billion and outflows were US$6.9 billion. Fee-related earnings rose to US$808 million from US$676 million a year earlier. But US$45 billion of the US$77 billion that BAM raised in Q2 2026 came from Brookfield's own insurer, so part of the growth is internal. Wealth Solutions sells annuities in a market with many competitors, and fixed-index annuity sales fell 35% from a year earlier in Q2 2026. Other large alternative asset managers compete for the same investors and fees. For these reasons, the estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more. It does not find clear evidence that the advantage lasts 20 years or more for the whole company.
As of 2026-10-08.