- Price
- $33.85
- Fair value
- $43.00
- Discount
- 21.3%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 1.83
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-12-18
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Birkenstock
- Sector
- Footwear
- About
- Birkenstock makes sandals, clogs, shoes and other footwear with its contoured footbed, and it also sells sleep systems and natural cosmetics. The family tradition of shoemaking behind the brand goes back to 1774. It sells to retail partners (B2B) and directly to consumers (DTC) through its own stores and websites, and it had 124 own stores at June 30, 2026. It reports three segments: the Americas, EMEA and APAC. Its fiscal year ends on September 30. Revenue was EUR 720 million in the fiscal third quarter of 2026, and the company expects fiscal 2026 revenue at the high end of EUR 2,300 to 2,350 million.
- Thesis
- The market prices Birkenstock for a slowdown after years of fast growth and for share sales by its main shareholder. Investors fear that demand for the brand can fade after years of fast growth. US tariffs and currency translation also lowered the gross margin by 130 basis points in the fiscal third quarter of 2026. The main shareholder, BK LC Lux MidCo, sold more shares in August 2026, which adds supply of shares to the market. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Revenue growth must stay near the 15% in constant currency of fiscal 2026, with growth in all segments and in closed-toe shoes. The adjusted EBITDA margin must stay near 30% despite tariffs and currency. Buybacks must continue to reduce the share count, after the EUR 230 million accelerated buyback in June 2026 and the $500 million redemption in August 2026. The fiscal 2026 report, estimated for about December 18, 2026, and the fiscal 2027 outlook give the next tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a fall in demand for the brand, which no one can predict.
- Risks
- Footwear brands can lose popularity quickly. A fall in demand for Birkenstock sandals and clogs would reduce growth and the high margins.
Birkenstock sells worldwide and reports in euros. US tariffs and currency translation lowered the gross margin by 130 basis points in the fiscal third quarter of 2026.
The main shareholder sold shares in 2026 and can sell more. Large sales can push the share price down for a time.
Net leverage rose to 1.8 times at June 30, 2026, after the buyback. More buybacks with debt leave less room if sales slow.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: €694M
Debt: €1.7B
Net debt: €990M
EBITDA, last 12 months: €694M
Net debt / EBITDA: 1.4× (low)
Debt due within 12 months: €5.1M
Last debt due: 2033
Birkenstock has moderate debt. At June 30, 2026, loans and borrowings were EUR 1,683 million, mostly the new EUR 900 million of 4.500% notes due 2033 and a USD term loan, of which EUR 5 million was current. Cash was EUR 694 million. With lease liabilities of EUR 237 million, net debt as the company defines it was EUR 1,227 million, 1.8 times adjusted EBITDA of EUR 694 million for the 12 months to June 30, 2026, up from 1.5 times at September 30, 2025. In August 2026, after these figures, Birkenstock used about $500 million of cash to buy back shares from the secondary offering. The company expected net leverage of about 1.6 to 1.7 times at the end of fiscal 2026, before this buyback.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Dec 18, 2026 (estimate): Fiscal 2026 results and fiscal 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: Fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR 710 million and a fiscal 2027 outlook with low double-digit growth or better pass; a lower margin or a weak growth outlook fail.
Feb 13, 2027 (estimate): Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings: demand trend. Pending. Watch: Revenue growth in double digits in constant currency and stable margins pass; slower growth in the Americas or a lower margin fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-08-17: Birkenstock's main shareholder, BK LC Lux MidCo, sold 28,146,226 shares in a secondary offering at $39.35 per share. Birkenstock bought back and cancelled 12,761,613 of these shares for about $500 million.
2026-08-13: Birkenstock reported fiscal Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 13% to EUR 720 million, or 15% in constant currency, with double-digit growth in all segments. Adjusted EBITDA rose 11% to EUR 242 million, with a margin of 33.7%. Adjusted EPS rose 19% to EUR 0.74. The company raised its fiscal 2026 guidance to revenue growth of 15% in constant currency and adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR 710 million.
2026-08-06: Alexandre Arnault resigned from the board because of professional commitments. The company is looking for an independent director to fill the seat.
2026-06-30: Birkenstock completed a EUR 230 million accelerated share repurchase, which reduced the number of shares by 6 million. On June 16, 2026, it priced EUR 900 million of 4.500% senior notes due 2033 and used part of the money to repay EUR 428.5 million of 5.25% notes due 2029.