- Price
- $28.77
- Fair value
- $35.00
- Discount
- 17.8%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 3.17
- Moat
- Wide
- Next earnings
- 2026-12-02
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Brown-Forman
- Sector
- Spirits
- About
- Brown-Forman makes and sells spirits in more than 170 countries. Its largest brand family is Jack Daniel's, which includes Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Tennessee Honey, the new Tennessee Blackberry, and ready-to-drink cans such as Jack Daniel's & Coca-Cola. Its other brands include Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, el Jimador and Herradura tequila, New Mix, Diplomático rum, and Gin Mare. It makes money by selling bottles to distributors and, in some markets, through its own distribution companies. Whiskey needs years to age, so the company keeps large inventories of barrels. In fiscal 2026, which ended April 30, 2026, net sales were $3.9 billion and operating income was $1.0 billion. The Brown family controls the company through the Class A voting shares; the Class B shares (BF.B) have no vote.
- Thesis
- The market prices Brown-Forman at a discount because it fears that people drink less spirits for a long time, not only for a few years. Organic net sales were flat in fiscal 2026 and fell 1% in Q1 of fiscal 2027, and the company expects organic operating income to fall 3% to 5% in fiscal 2027. Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey sales fell in the US and in Europe, and tequila sales fell 13% organic in Q1. Tariffs add pressure: in March 2025, several Canadian provinces removed all American alcohol, including Jack Daniel's, from store shelves. Two events in 2026 added uncertainty. On April 28, talks about a combination with Pernod Ricard ended without a deal. On July 13, the CEO, Lawson Whiting, said that he will retire, and the board is still searching for a successor. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Organic net sales must stop falling and return to growth in fiscal 2028. Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey must stop losing volume in the US and in developed international markets. New products, such as Tennessee Blackberry and New Mix, must keep growing. The new CEO must keep costs under control and keep the dividend growing. The next checks are the Q2 fiscal 2027 report, expected in early December 2026, the appointment of the new CEO, and the fiscal 2027 results and fiscal 2028 outlook in June 2027. Because the change in drinking habits is slow, the gap can close only over several years, if it closes.
- Risks
- Spirits demand is weak in the US and in developed international markets. If younger people drink less alcohol for a long time, sales of Jack Daniel's and other brands can keep falling.
Tariffs and trade disputes can raise costs and cut sales. In March 2025, several Canadian provinces removed all American beverage alcohol from their shelves, and US tariff rates remain historically high.
The CEO will retire when the board finds a successor. A long search or a change in strategy can slow decisions.
Tequila sales fell 13% organic in Q1 of fiscal 2027, with lower volumes in the US and lower prices in Mexico. Price competition in tequila can continue.
Weight-loss drugs such as GLP-1s can reduce alcohol consumption. The effect is not yet clear in the company's sales.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $301M
Debt: $2.4B
Net debt: $2.1B
Interest cover: 10×
Undrawn credit line: $900M, to May 2029
Debt due within 12 months: $358M
Ratings: Moody's A2, S&P A-
Brown-Forman funds itself mostly with long-term notes and commercial paper. At July 31, 2026, long-term debt was $2,083 million and commercial paper was $358 million, after the company used commercial paper to repay its €300 million notes on July 7, 2026. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for Q1 of fiscal 2027. The commercial paper program of $900 million is supported by a $900 million bank credit facility that ends on May 26, 2029. On September 21, 2026, after the balance sheet date, the company sold $500 million of 5.375% notes due 2031. Large whiskey inventories, which take years to age, are a big part of its assets. The ratings are from the Q1 fiscal 2027 10-Q.
As of 2026-07-31.
- Checkpoints
- Dec 2, 2026 (estimate): Q2 fiscal 2027 results: organic sales trend. Pending. Watch: Organic net sales near flat with the fiscal 2027 outlook kept passes; a larger organic decline or a cut to the outlook fails.
Q1 2027 (estimate): New CEO appointed. Pending. Watch: A new CEO in place with a clear plan for growth and costs passes; a long search with no successor fails.
Jun 2027 (estimate): Fiscal 2027 results and fiscal 2028 outlook. Pending. Watch: An outlook for organic net sales growth in fiscal 2028 passes; another year of flat or lower organic sales fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-21: Brown-Forman sold $500 million of 5.375% notes due 2031. It can use the money for general purposes, such as dividends, buybacks, and repaying commercial paper.
2026-09-02: Brown-Forman reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Net sales fell 1% to $911 million, and diluted EPS rose 6% to $0.38. Tequila net sales fell 12%, and New Mix sales rose 48%. It kept its fiscal 2027 outlook of about flat organic net sales and a 3% to 5% decline in organic operating income.
2026-07-23: Brown-Forman declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2310 per share. The company has paid regular dividends for 82 years in a row and has raised them for 42 years in a row.
2026-07-13: CEO Lawson Whiting said that he will retire when the board appoints his successor. The board started a search for internal and external candidates, and the company kept its fiscal 2027 outlook.
2026-07-07: Brown-Forman repaid its €300 million ($343 million) 1.20% notes at maturity, mostly with commercial paper.
2026-06-04: Brown-Forman reported fiscal 2026 results. Net sales fell 1% to $3.9 billion, operating income fell 10% to $1.0 billion, and diluted EPS fell 17% to $1.53. Free cash flow rose by $462 million to $893 million, and the company returned $827 million to stockholders.
2026-04-28: Brown-Forman and Pernod Ricard ended their talks about a possible combination because they could not agree on terms. The companies had confirmed the talks on March 26, 2026.