- Price
- $186.59
- Fair value
- $254.00
- Discount
- 26.5%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 1.75
- Moat
- Wide
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-27
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Boeing
- Sector
- Aerospace & defense
- About
- Boeing designs and builds commercial airplanes, military aircraft, satellites, and weapons, and it gives services to airlines and governments. It reports three segments. Commercial Airplanes builds the 737, 767, 777, and 787 and gave $21.0 billion of its $46.8 billion of revenue in the first half of 2026. Defense, Space & Security builds aircraft such as the KC-46 tanker, the T-7A trainer, and the MQ-25 drone, mostly for the US government. Global Services sells parts, maintenance, training, and data services, and it is the most profitable segment, with an operating margin of 18.1% in Q2 2026. Boeing gets most of the cash for an airplane when it delivers it, so the number of deliveries drives its cash flow. At June 30, 2026, its backlog was a record $715 billion, with more than 6,200 commercial airplanes. In December 2025, it bought Spirit AeroSystems, its main supplier of 737 fuselages.
- Thesis
- The market prices Boeing at a discount because it doubts that Boeing can raise production and turn its large backlog into steady cash flow on time. Boeing still lost money in the first half of 2026: core loss per share was $0.97, and free cash flow was an outflow of $0.8 billion. It also carried $45.9 billion of debt at June 30, 2026. Its value depends on more deliveries each year, but each step needs the FAA. The 737 production rate went from 42 to 47 a month in 2026. The 737-10 is still not certified after a software issue delayed it in September 2026, and the first 777-9 delivery is planned for 2027, years late. Each delay pushes cash into later years. For the gap to close, four things must be true. The 737 line must stay stable at 47 a month, and the FAA must approve higher rates and the new North Line. The FAA must certify the 737-10 soon and the 777-9 in time for first delivery in 2027. Free cash flow must turn positive for 2026 and grow strongly in 2027, as management expects. Boeing must keep reducing its debt and keep its investment-grade ratings. The first check is the Q3 2026 report on October 27, 2026, then the 737-10 certification and the 2027 outlook with the Q4 report, expected in late January 2027. If these hold, the gap can close over several years as cash flow grows. Another quality problem or a long certification delay would push this out again.
- Risks
- Boeing needs FAA approval for higher 737 rates, the new 737 North Line, the 737-10, and the 777-9. Another quality problem or a long certification delay can stop the increase in deliveries and cash flow, as it did after the door plug event in January 2024.
Boeing still lost money in the first half of 2026, and its debt was $45.9 billion at June 30, 2026. Operating earnings covered only about half of interest expense in that period. If cash flow is weak, the ratings, which are one step above junk, can fall.
Fixed-price defense programs, such as the VC-25B Air Force One, KC-46, MQ-25, and T-7A, have caused repeated losses. The VC-25B lost $280 million in Q2 2026. More losses on these programs can reduce profit.
Suppliers have shortages and financial problems. A shortage slowed the 787 factory in April 2026. Tariffs and US-China trade tension can raise costs and reduce orders and deliveries to China, which is a large market for airplanes.
Labor actions can stop production. A strike in 2024 stopped most commercial airplane production for about seven weeks.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $20.0B
Debt: $45.9B
Net debt: $25.9B
Interest cover: 0.5×
Undrawn credit line: $10.0B
Debt due within 12 months: $4.6B
Ratings: S&P BBB- (stable outlook), Moody's Baa3 (stable outlook), Fitch BBB- (positive outlook)
Boeing funds itself mostly with unsecured bonds that it issued after 2020, when its losses grew. Total debt was $45.9 billion at June 30, 2026, down from $54.1 billion at December 31, 2025, after $7.8 billion more net repayments than in the first half of 2025. Cash is $7.2 billion of cash and $12.8 billion of short-term investments. Interest cover is GAAP earnings from operations divided by interest and debt expense for the first half of 2026; it is below 1, so operating earnings did not cover interest. Boeing has no EBITDA figure here because it has had operating losses or very small profits. The undrawn credit is three revolving credit lines of $3.0 billion, $3.0 billion, and $4.0 billion. On August 24, 2026, Boeing renewed the first to August 2027 and extended the others to August 2029 and May 2030. They now require at least $5.0 billion of liquidity. In June 2026, Fitch changed its outlook to positive.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 27, 2026: Q3 2026 results: cash flow and 737 rate. Pending. Watch: Positive free cash flow in Q3 and a 737 line stable at 47 a month pass; a cash outflow, new charges, or a slower 737 rate fail.
Q4 2026 (estimate): 737-10 certification. Pending. Watch: FAA certification of the 737-10 by the end of 2026, which keeps first delivery in 2027, passes; a new delay into 2027 fails.
Jan 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: Positive free cash flow for 2026 and a 2027 outlook with much higher free cash flow and more deliveries pass; negative cash flow for 2026 or a weaker outlook fails.
2027 (estimate): First 777-9 delivery. Pending. Watch: First delivery of the 777-9 in 2027 as planned passes; another delay into 2028 fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-13: Boeing reported 161 commercial deliveries in Q3 2026, including 124 737s, 22 787s, ten 767s, and five 777s. This brought the total for the first nine months to 475. Defense deliveries were 33, including seven KC-46 tankers.
2026-10-02: An FAA review board concluded that the 737 flight management software issue is not a safety concern. The FAA will not require a software fix before it certifies the 737-10. The 737-10 is still not certified.
2026-09-28: FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said that the FAA will hold the 737-10 certification while it reviews a software issue that Boeing disclosed on September 26. The issue can stop automated flight guidance after a missed approach. He gave no timeline.
2026-08-24: Boeing replaced its $3.0 billion 364-day credit line, now due August 2027, and extended its two five-year credit lines by one year, to 2029 and 2030. All three lines now require Boeing to keep at least $5.0 billion of liquidity.
2026-08-03: The FAA certified the 737-7, after Boeing redesigned the engine anti-ice system and updated the flight control software and crew alerts.
2026-07-28: Boeing reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $24.6 billion, up 8%, from 171 commercial deliveries. The core loss per share was $0.76. Free cash flow was $0.6 billion, and debt fell to $45.9 billion. The 737 program began moving to 47 airplanes a month, and 787 production was stable at eight a month. Boeing still expects 737-7 and 737-10 certification in 2026 and the first 777-9 delivery in 2027.