- Price
- $38.65
- Fair value
- $52.00
- Discount
- 25.7%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 2.05
- Moat
- None
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-28
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Antero Resources
- Sector
- Natural gas & NGL production
- About
- Antero Resources produces natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and some oil from the Marcellus Shale in West Virginia. It is one of the largest gas producers in the Appalachian Basin. On February 3, 2026, it bought HG Energy II Production Holdings, with about 385,000 net acres in the core of the Marcellus Shale, for $2.8 billion in cash. Net production was a record 4.1 Bcfe per day in Q2 2026. Antero uses firm transport contracts to move its gas and NGLs out of the basin, and it uses hedges to reduce the effect of price changes.
- Thesis
- The market prices Antero for weak natural gas prices and for the debt from the HG Energy purchase. In Q2 2026, Antero's average realized gas price before hedges was $2.66 per Mcf, and the Henry Hub price was 16% lower than a year earlier. Total debt rose to $2.61 billion at June 30, 2026, from $1.40 billion at December 31, 2025, because Antero borrowed to pay for HG Energy. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Gas prices must stay at or above the levels of 2026, helped by new LNG export plants and data center demand. Antero must reach its plan to cut cash costs by $0.70 per Mcfe from 2025 to the end of 2028, so that margins grow even if prices stay low. Free cash flow must pay down the $1.1 billion term loan and keep the buybacks going. The Q3 2026 report on October 28, 2026 shows the first full quarter after the July acquisitions. Winter gas prices and the Q4 2026 report in early 2027 give the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a long period of low gas prices, which Antero cannot control.
- Risks
- Results depend on the prices of natural gas and NGLs, which Antero cannot control. In Q2 2026, the Henry Hub price was 16% lower than a year earlier. Hedges for 2027 cover only part of production.
Debt rose to $2.61 billion at June 30, 2026, after the HG Energy purchase. If prices stay low, it takes longer to repay the term loan, and less cash is left for buybacks.
Antero needs pipeline and processing capacity to move its gas and NGLs. Outages, curtailments or limits on new pipelines in the Appalachian Basin can lower production and prices. Antero forecast 5 Bcfe of curtailments in Q3 2026.
The cost plan expects savings of $0.70 per Mcfe by the end of 2028. If the integration of HG Energy or the changes to transport contracts give less than planned, margins grow more slowly.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $0.0M
Debt: $2.6B
Net debt: $2.6B
Debt due within 12 months: $182M
Last debt due: 2036
Antero funds itself with senior notes, a term loan, a revolving credit facility and commercial paper. Total debt was $2.61 billion at June 30, 2026, up from $1.40 billion at December 31, 2025. It was $1.1 billion of term loan, $750 million of 5.400% notes due 2036, $600 million of 5.375% notes due 2030, $182 million of commercial paper and $2.7 million on the credit facility, less issuance costs. Antero repaid its 7.625% notes due 2029 in the first half of 2026. It had no cash at June 30, 2026, so net debt was also $2.61 billion. Adjusted EBITDAX was $595 million in Q2 2026. Antero had about $880 million left under its share repurchase program.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: production and costs. Pending. Watch: Production within the guidance of 4.25 to 4.3 Bcfe per day, lower unit costs and free cash flow that reduces debt pass; a large fall in cash flow or higher costs fail.
Feb 15, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 report and 2027 plan. Pending. Watch: A 2027 plan with lower costs, steady production and debt repayment pass; higher capital spending without more cash flow, or rising debt, fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-14: Antero said it will report Q3 2026 results on October 28, 2026, after the market closes, and hold its call on October 29, 2026.
2026-07-29: Antero reported Q2 2026 results. Net production was a record 4.1 Bcfe per day, up 21% from a year earlier. Net income was $279 million and adjusted EBITDAX was $595 million, up 57%. Adjusted free cash flow before working capital was $220 million. Antero raised its 2026 production guidance to 4.15 to 4.2 Bcfe per day and lowered its cash production expense guidance.
2026-07-29: Antero bought properties in its West Virginia area for about $315 million in July 2026, with about 125 MMcfe per day of net production. On June 30, 2026, the Martica overriding royalty interests went back to Antero, which it expects to add about $60 million of cash flow each year.
2026-06-16: Antero started a commercial paper program for short-term unsecured notes. It must keep unused capacity under its revolving credit facility at least equal to the commercial paper outstanding.
2026-02-03: Antero completed the purchase of HG Energy II Production Holdings for $2.8 billion in cash. It paid with cash, a new $1.5 billion three-year term loan and other debt.