- Price
- $312.25
- Fair value
- $470.00
- Discount
- 33.6%
- Uncertainty
- Very High
- LSEG rating
- 1.94
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-11
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- AppLovin
- Sector
- Advertising technology
- About
- AppLovin runs an AI-driven advertising platform. Its AXON system predicts which ads will perform well, and bids for ad space in real time. App developers, and increasingly e-commerce merchants, pay AppLovin to place ads through this system. In 2025, AppLovin sold its mobile game studios, so it could focus only on the advertising business.
- Thesis
- Several short-sellers have accused AppLovin of collecting user data in ways that violate app store rules. These accusations led the SEC to open an investigation in October 2025. The SEC closed that investigation in August 2026, with no enforcement action. Some of the stock's discount may still reflect worry left over from that period. AppLovin is now expanding its AXON ad engine into e-commerce, a market management says is five to ten times larger than mobile gaming. This could unlock growth the market has not yet priced in.
- Risks
- Multiple short-seller firms have accused AppLovin of improper data collection and ad-fraud-like practices. The SEC closed its own investigation in August 2026 with no action. This does not rule out future lawsuits or enforcement action from Apple's or Google's app stores.
AppLovin's revenue depends on its AXON AI model, which decides how to target and price ads. This model is proprietary, so outsiders cannot fully verify how it works. A change in the model's calibration can swing reported revenue.
AppLovin is putting its next growth phase on a business it barely ran before 2025: self-serve e-commerce advertising. This customer base is new. Its spending and retention patterns are not yet proven the way its mobile gaming ad network's patterns are.
- Recent events
- 2026-08-05: AppLovin reported Q2 2026 revenue of $1.92 billion, up 53% from last year. The company also said the SEC had closed its investigation with no action.
2025-10-06: News broke that the SEC had opened an investigation into AppLovin's data-collection practices, following a series of short-seller reports.