- Price
- $292.57
- Fair value
- $341.00
- Discount
- 14.2%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 2.48
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-28
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Aon
- Sector
- Insurance brokerage & consulting
- About
- Aon is a global professional services firm based in Dublin, Ireland. It works with clients in more than 120 countries. Its Risk Capital business brokers commercial insurance and reinsurance and advises clients on risk, and its Human Capital business advises on health benefits, retirement and talent. Aon earns most of its revenue from commissions and fees, so it does not take insurance risk itself. Total revenue was $17.2 billion in 2025, with organic growth of 6%. In 2024, Aon bought NFP, a broker for middle-market companies in the United States, and it later sold the NFP Wealth business. In Q2 2026, Risk Capital revenue was $3.0 billion and Human Capital revenue was $1.2 billion.
- Thesis
- The market prices Aon for the cost and risk of its $17.0 billion purchase of USI, the tenth largest US insurance broker. Aon agreed to the deal on August 30, 2026, and it funds it fully with new debt. In September 2026, it sold $13.5 billion of new senior notes and signed $4.0 billion of delayed draw term loans. Aon said that it does not expect to buy back shares in the near term, because it puts debt repayment first. It expects the deal to add to adjusted EPS only from 2028. The CFO also left his role on August 17, 2026, and an interim CFO now leads finance during the deal. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The USI purchase must close in Q4 2026, as Aon expects, with no large new conditions. Aon must show progress toward the $395 million of yearly synergies and pay down debt, so that it keeps its Baa2 and A- ratings. Organic revenue growth must stay at mid-single digits or better, as the 2026 guidance says. The Q3 2026 report on October 28, 2026, is the next test. The Q4 report and the 2027 outlook in early 2027 are the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a slower integration of USI, which would delay debt repayment and buybacks.
- Risks
- The USI purchase of $17.0 billion is funded with new debt. Debt was $14.97 billion at June 30, 2026, before Aon sold $13.5 billion of new notes in September 2026. If integration is slow or synergies are lower, debt stays high and buybacks stay on hold longer.
Broker revenue depends on insurance prices and client activity. Lower commercial insurance prices or weaker economies can slow organic growth below the mid-single-digit target. Human Capital revenue fell 4% in Q2 2026.
The CFO left his role in August 2026, just before Aon agreed to buy USI, and the finance team is under an interim leader. Changes in leaders can slow decisions during the integration.
The deal needs regulatory approvals. A delay past Q4 2026 or new conditions can raise costs and delay synergies.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $1.3B
Debt: $15.0B
Net debt: $13.7B
Interest cover: 7.3×
Debt due within 12 months: $2.0B
Last debt due: 2056
Ratings: Moody's Baa2, S&P A-
Aon funds its operations with senior notes, commercial paper and bank lines. At June 30, 2026, debt was $14.97 billion: $2.02 billion of short-term debt and current long-term debt, and $12.95 billion of long-term debt. Cash and short-term investments were $1.27 billion. Fiduciary assets and liabilities, which Aon holds for clients and insurers, are left out. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first half of 2026. After June 30, debt rises sharply for the USI purchase: in September 2026, Aon sold $13.5 billion of new notes due from 2029 to 2056 and signed $4.0 billion of delayed draw term loans. It also signed a new $3.0 billion revolving credit facility. Aon expects to keep its Baa2 rating from Moody's and A- rating from S&P, and it will put debt repayment ahead of buybacks.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: organic growth. Pending. Watch: Organic revenue growth of 5% or more and the 2026 guidance kept pass; organic growth below 4% or a cut to the guidance fails.
Q4 2026 (estimate): USI purchase closes. Pending. Watch: The USI purchase closes in Q4 2026 with no large new conditions and with the Baa2 and A- ratings kept passes; a delay into 2027 or a rating cut fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-18: Aon signed a $4.0 billion unsecured delayed draw term loan facility with two-year and three-year tranches and a new $3.0 billion revolving credit facility. The new revolver replaced two $1.0 billion revolving credit facilities.
2026-09-14: Aon agreed to sell $13.5 billion of senior notes due from 2029 to 2056, with interest rates from 5.350% to 6.450%. Most of the notes fund the USI purchase.
2026-08-31: Aon agreed to buy USI from KKR and other owners for $17.0 billion, or $16.7 billion net of tax attributes. USI has about $3 billion of yearly revenue. Aon expects $395 million of yearly synergies, a close in Q4 2026 and higher adjusted EPS from 2028. USI's CEO, Mike Sicard, will become President of Aon after the close.
2026-08-17: Edmund Reese left his role as CFO and became a senior advisor until August 16, 2027. Nadin Virani, Global Head of Corporate Planning and Analytics, became interim CFO.
2026-07-29: Aon reported Q2 2026 results. Total revenue rose 2% to $4,246 million, with organic growth of 5%. Adjusted EPS rose 9% to $3.81. Aon bought back $600 million of shares in the quarter and kept its 2026 guidance of mid-single-digit or greater organic growth.