- Price
- $106.07
- Fair value
- $108.00
- Discount
- 1.8%
- Uncertainty
- Low
- LSEG rating
- 2.17
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-06
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Ameren
- Sector
- Electric & gas utility
- About
- Ameren is a regulated utility holding company based in St. Louis. Its utilities serve 2.5 million electric customers and more than 900,000 natural gas customers in a 64,000-square-mile area in Missouri and Illinois. Ameren Missouri generates, transmits and distributes electricity, and it also distributes natural gas. Its plants include the Callaway nuclear energy center and the Labadie coal-fired energy center. Ameren Illinois transmits and distributes electricity and distributes natural gas, but it does not generate power. Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois builds and operates regional transmission lines in the MISO grid. State and federal regulators set the rates, so earnings grow mostly with the rate base, which is the investment on which the utilities may earn a return.
- Thesis
- The market prices Ameren as a steady utility with a large and costly building plan. Ameren plans $31.8 billion of infrastructure investment, with rate base growth of about 10.6% a year from 2025 through 2030, and it expects EPS growth of 6% to 8% a year from 2026 through 2030. To pay for this plan, Ameren issues new debt and new shares. On July 31, 2026, it added $2.0 billion to its program to sell new shares, and it sold $900 million of junior subordinated notes in September 2026. New shares lower the growth in EPS, and higher rates for customers can make regulators less generous. Much of the growth also depends on data centers: large load customers signed agreements for 2.8 gigawatts of demand, which Ameren expects from the second half of 2027 to the end of 2029. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The Missouri Public Service Commission must approve a fair part of the $343 million electric rate increase that Ameren Missouri requested, with a decision expected by May 2027. Ameren must earn 2026 EPS within its $5.25 to $5.45 guidance. The large load customers must start to use power from the second half of 2027, as planned. Ameren discusses its Q3 2026 results on November 6, 2026, which is the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weak rate order in Missouri, which would lower the return on the new investment.
- Risks
- Regulators decide how much Ameren may earn on its investments. If the Missouri Public Service Commission approves much less than the $343 million rate increase requested in June 2026, or a lower return on equity, earnings growth will be slower.
The investment plan of $31.8 billion needs much new debt and new shares. Ameren added $2.0 billion to its share sale program in July 2026. More shares lower the growth in EPS, and higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt.
Part of the growth depends on data centers and other large customers. Ameren Missouri signed agreements for 2.8 gigawatts of demand, expected from the second half of 2027 to the end of 2029. If these customers delay or reduce their projects, Ameren may build more than it needs.
Weather affects sales and costs. Milder temperatures lowered electric retail sales in the first half of 2026, and tree trimming and plant maintenance raised costs. Severe storms can also cause large repair costs.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $12M
Debt: $21.8B
Net debt: $21.8B
Interest cover: 2.4×
Debt due within 12 months: $2.7B
Ameren funds its utilities with first mortgage bonds and funds the parent with senior and junior notes, commercial paper and new shares. At June 30, 2026, debt was $21.81 billion: long-term debt of $19.06 billion, current maturities of $1.52 billion and short-term debt of $1.22 billion. The amount due within 12 months includes the current maturities and the short-term debt. Cash was only $12 million, which is normal for a utility that uses commercial paper. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest charges for the first half of 2026. Ameren Missouri sold $500 million of 5.75% bonds due 2056 on June 29, 2026. After June 30, Ameren Illinois sold $400 million of 5.50% bonds due 2036, and Ameren sold $900 million of junior subordinated notes due 2057. Ameren paid a dividend of $0.75 per share each quarter in 2026, up from $0.71.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 6, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: 2026 guidance. Pending. Watch: Year-to-date EPS on track for the $5.25 to $5.45 guidance and the 6% to 8% growth plan kept pass; a cut to the guidance or the growth plan fails.
May 2027 (estimate): Missouri electric rate order. Pending. Watch: An order that approves most of the $343 million request with a return on equity near 10% passes; an order for much less, or a return on equity well below 9.5%, fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-28: Ameren Missouri filed its 2026 integrated resource plan with the Missouri Public Service Commission. It plans for demand growth of about 2.9 to 3.9 gigawatts by 2030. The plan adds natural gas, solar, wind, battery storage and 1,200 megawatts of new nuclear generation by 2040. It moves the retirement of two Labadie coal units from 2036 to 2042.
2026-09-18: Ameren sold $900 million of junior subordinated notes due 2057. Its net proceeds were $891.0 million before expenses. In August 2026, Ameren Illinois also sold $400 million of 5.50% first mortgage bonds due 2036.
2026-07-31: Ameren increased its program to sell new common shares by $2.0 billion. After the increase, shares worth up to $2.27 billion remained available for sale under the program.
2026-07-30: Ameren reported Q2 2026 results. Net income was $314 million, or $1.13 per diluted share, up from $1.01 a year earlier. Earnings rose from investments in all segments, partly offset by higher operations and maintenance costs. Ameren kept its 2026 EPS guidance of $5.25 to $5.45.
2026-06-26: Ameren Missouri asked the Missouri Public Service Commission to increase its annual electric revenues by $343 million. The request is based on a 10.25% return on equity, a 52% equity ratio and a rate base of $16.7 billion. A decision is expected by May 2027, with new rates by June 2027.