- Price
- $88.28
- Fair value
- $106.00
- Discount
- 16.7%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 2.25
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-29
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- adidas
- Sector
- Sportswear
- About
- adidas designs and sells sports shoes, apparel and accessories under the adidas brand. Its headquarters are in Herzogenaurach, Germany. It sells through retailers (wholesale) and through its own stores and e-commerce (direct-to-consumer, DTC). Its main categories are Performance, such as Football, Running and Training, and Lifestyle, such as Originals and Sportswear. Net sales were a record € 24.8 billion in 2025, and operating profit was € 2,056 million. Other companies make most of its products under contract. One ADDYY American Depositary Receipt equals half of one adidas AG share, which trades in Germany. The ADR program is a sponsored Level I program, so adidas does not file reports with the SEC.
- Thesis
- The market prices adidas for the risk that 2026 is a peak year that will be hard to repeat. The FIFA World Cup in June and July 2026 drove much of the growth: Performance revenues rose 39% and apparel rose 35% in Q2 2026, while footwear rose only 1%. adidas says that the lifestyle footwear market is weak, with heavy discounts at many retailers, especially in Europe. Marketing costs rose € 212 million in Q2, and the operating margin fell to 8.5% from 9.2%. US tariffs and a strong euro cost about € 400 million in 2026, by the company's estimate. The CFO will also change at the end of 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. adidas must reach its 2026 target of about € 2.3 billion of operating profit. Revenue must keep growing at a high-single-digit rate in 2027 without the World Cup, as the company's mid-term plan says. Footwear must return to growth, so that the operating margin moves above 10% in 2028. The 9M 2026 results on October 29, 2026 give the first test. The full-year results and the 2027 outlook in early March 2027 are the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weaker consumer and more discounts in lifestyle footwear, which can stop growth after the World Cup.
- Risks
- Growth in 2026 depends partly on the FIFA World Cup. In Q2 2026, Performance revenues rose 39% while footwear rose only 1%. In 2027 there is no World Cup, so sales must grow against a strong year.
adidas says that the lifestyle footwear market is under pressure from heavy discounts at many retailers, especially in Europe. Revenues in Europe grew only 6% in Q2 2026. Longer discounts can lower prices and margins.
US tariffs and a strong euro cost adidas about € 400 million in 2026, by its own estimate. Freight and sourcing costs also rose. Higher tariffs or a stronger euro can lower profit further.
Inventories rose 13% to € 5,969 million at June 30, 2026, because adidas chose to keep more product for the World Cup. If demand slows, adidas may need to sell this stock at lower prices.
- Balance sheet
- adidas funds its operations mostly with its cash flow and euro bonds. At June 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were € 1,159 million, up from € 768 million a year earlier. Adjusted net borrowings, which the company states with lease and pension liabilities, were € 5,193 million, and the ratio of adjusted net borrowings to EBITDA was 1.6 times, down from 1.7 times. In May 2026, adidas placed a € 500 million bond as an early refinancing of a € 400 million bond due in October 2026. In 2026, adidas paid a dividend of € 491 million, or € 2.80 per share, and bought back shares for up to € 1 billion. Operating working capital rose 18% to € 6,661 million, mostly because of higher inventories.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026: 9M 2026 results: growth after the World Cup. Pending. Watch: Currency-neutral revenue growth near the 9% to 10% full-year outlook and the operating profit target of about € 2.3 billion confirmed pass; a cut to either target fails.
Mar 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: An outlook for high-single-digit currency-neutral growth in 2027 and higher operating profit passes; an outlook for flat sales or lower profit fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-11: adidas cancelled 6,000,000 treasury shares from its share buyback. Its nominal capital fell to € 174,000,000, divided into 174,000,000 shares. The buyback of up to € 1 billion in 2026 was done in two tranches, the second from June 23 to August 12, 2026.
2026-07-30: adidas reported Q2 2026 results. Currency-neutral revenues rose 14% to a record € 6.7 billion, with DTC sales up 25%. Gross margin rose to 52.5%. Operating profit rose 5% to € 574 million, after € 212 million more marketing spend for the World Cup. adidas raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 9% to 10% and kept its operating profit target of about € 2.3 billion.
2026-07-30: adidas said that Birgit Kretschmer, the CFO of C&A, will join its Executive Board on September 1, 2026. She will succeed Harm Ohlmeyer as CFO at the end of 2026. Mr. Ohlmeyer decided not to extend his mandate after almost 30 years at the company.
2026-05-19: adidas placed a € 500 million bond. It was an early refinancing of a € 400 million bond due in October 2026.
2026-04-29: adidas reported Q1 2026 results. Currency-neutral revenues rose 14% to € 6.6 billion. Operating profit rose 16% to € 705 million, and the operating margin rose to 10.7%.