- Price
- $58.93
- Fair value
- $104.00
- Discount
- 43.3%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 2.00
- Moat
- None
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-10
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- AECOM
- Sector
- Engineering & infrastructure services
- About
- AECOM is a large infrastructure consulting firm. It plans, designs and engineers projects in water, environment, energy, transportation and buildings, and it manages programs and construction for its clients. Most of its clients are governments and public agencies, and it also works for private companies. It reports two design segments, Americas and International, and it also has a Construction Management business in the Americas. In February 2026, AECOM completed a review of the Construction Management business and decided to keep it. Revenue was $16.1 billion in fiscal 2025, which ended on September 30, 2025. AECOM measures its growth with net service revenue, which leaves out the cost of subcontractors. Total backlog was a record $27.8 billion at June 30, 2026.
- Thesis
- The market prices AECOM for losses on one old Construction Management project and for slower growth. In Q3 fiscal 2026, AECOM took a $337 million pre-tax charge because the project needs more time and money to finish. The project was bid in 2019 under terms that AECOM says its current risk rules would not accept. AECOM cut its fiscal 2026 free cash flow guidance to about $300 million, and it lowered its net service revenue guidance because of delayed project starts and the conflict in the Middle East. Net debt rose to $1.73 billion at June 30, 2026, from $754 million a year earlier, after share buybacks and the lower cash flow. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The project must reach substantial completion in Q2 fiscal 2027, as AECOM expects, with no further large charge. The design business must keep its growth, so that the record backlog of $27.8 billion turns into net service revenue and the margin moves toward the 20% exit rate target for fiscal 2028. Free cash flow must return toward the target of more than 100% of adjusted net income. The fiscal 2026 report, estimated for about November 10, 2026, gives the first test and the guidance for fiscal 2027. The Q2 fiscal 2027 report in May 2027 shows whether the project is complete. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a new charge on Construction Management work, because the claims on this project can take several years to resolve.
- Risks
- The Construction Management project that caused the $337 million charge in Q3 fiscal 2026 is not complete. AECOM expects substantial completion in Q2 fiscal 2027. More delays or higher costs can cause new charges, and AECOM says that its claims on the project will likely take several years and litigation to resolve.
Most revenue comes from governments and public agencies. Changes in public budgets, delayed project starts or conflict in regions such as the Middle East can slow growth. AECOM lowered its fiscal 2026 net service revenue guidance for these reasons.
Free cash flow fell to $55 million in Q3 fiscal 2026, and AECOM expects about $300 million for fiscal 2026. Net debt rose to $1.73 billion at June 30, 2026, after $442 million of buybacks in the first nine months. Less cash flow leaves less room for buybacks.
AECOM targets a 20% margin exit rate by fiscal 2028, partly from its own AI tools and its Advisory services. If AI lowers the hours that clients pay for, or the investments do not give the expected results, margin growth can be slower.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $1.0B
Debt: $2.7B
Net debt: $1.7B
Net debt / EBITDA: 1.5× (low)
Interest cover: 2.7×
Undrawn credit line: $500M, to June 2028
Debt due within 12 months: $63M
AECOM funds its operations with senior notes, bank loans and a revolving credit facility. At June 30, 2026, total debt was $2.75 billion. It includes $1.2 billion of 6.000% senior notes due 2033. Cash fell to $1.01 billion from $1.59 billion at September 30, 2025, and net debt was $1.73 billion. AECOM states net leverage of 1.5 times, with EBITDA as its credit agreement defines it. Interest cover is income from operations divided by interest expense for the first nine months of fiscal 2026, and it includes the $337 million project charge. The $500 million revolving credit facility had nothing drawn at June 30, 2026. The credit agreement requires a consolidated leverage ratio of 4.0 times or less. AECOM also sold $349 million of trade receivables to banks that were outstanding at June 30, 2026, and these are not in debt.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 10, 2026 (estimate): Fiscal 2026 results: cash flow and fiscal 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: Fiscal 2026 free cash flow of about $300 million or more, no new large project charge and fiscal 2027 guidance for adjusted EPS growth pass; a new charge or lower guidance fails.
May 2027 (estimate): Q2 fiscal 2027 results: project completion. Pending. Watch: Substantial completion of the Construction Management project in Q2 fiscal 2027 without a further charge passes; a new delay or charge fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-16: AECOM said that David Gan, its Chief Legal Officer, will retire. Manav Kumar, General Counsel, Corporate and Global Head of Public Affairs, became Chief Legal Officer on October 2, 2026. Mr. Gan stays as a senior advisor until the second half of 2027.
2026-08-10: AECOM reported Q3 fiscal 2026 results. A $337 million pre-tax charge on a Construction Management project caused a net loss of $84 million, or $0.65 per diluted share. Without the charge, adjusted EPS was $1.49, up 11%. Wins were a record $4.2 billion, and backlog rose 13% to $27.8 billion. AECOM lowered its fiscal 2026 guidance to adjusted EPS of $3.95 to $4.15 and free cash flow of about $300 million.
2026-06-10: AECOM signed a new $500 million revolving credit facility with Bank of America as administrative agent. It matures on June 9, 2028, and nothing was borrowed under it on June 10, 2026.
2026-05-11: AECOM reported Q2 fiscal 2026 results and raised its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance. It returned $155 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in the quarter. Net leverage was 1.2 times.
2026-02-09: AECOM reported Q1 fiscal 2026 results and raised its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance. It completed its review of strategic alternatives for the Construction Management business and decided to keep the business. The board raised the share repurchase authorization to $1 billion.